Newmarket Saturday analysis: David Ord on the Group One action

Ballydoyle and Godolphin both left Newmarket on Saturday evening with something to help the dark winter nights pass that little bit quicker.

Fears the persistent rain and a very testing racing surface earlier in the week would have a detrimental effect on the Group One action at Headquarters proved unfounded.

We had a sunny day, drying ground and two sparkling performances in the Juddmonte Middle Park and Cheveley Park Stakes.

We’ll start with the colts.

Following the morning defection of Ides Of March, his stablemate Whistlejacket was expected to add this prize to his Prix Morny success but having been front-rank throughout, he was left chasing a Shadow – well Shadow Of Light – who loomed up on the bridle going into The Dip and hurtled clear inside the final furlong.

At the line the Gimcrack runner-up was four lengths clear.

Connections took him out of the Mill Reef last week because of the heavy ground and this was the softest surface he’d encountered to date but far from being an inconvenience, he seemed to relish it.

Charlie Appleby felt he’d raced on an unfavourable part of the track when beaten by Cool Hoof Luke at York, losing his unbeaten record in the process.

But this was a strong performance, substance to go with the style, even if there was a strange aftermath.

Paddy Power initially cut him to 7/1 from 33/1 for the Guineas in the Spring. Within three minutes he was out to 10s. And that's the shortest price in the village.

It's the age-old question when it comes to the Middle Park. Is the winner purely a sprinter?

William Buick wasn’t convinced he’d have the stamina for a mile at three and neither was Appleby, who was also inclined to pull up stumps for the season.

Shadow Of Light had shaped before as if seven would be within reach mind and there's definite scope in the pedigree to suggest he could stretch out to a mile. It will be interesting to see if connections can resist the temptation to take in a trial in the spring. Much I suspect will depend on Ancient Truth and how he performs in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes back here in a fortnight.

This was still a significant performance from his stablemate and it’s a long wait for the Commonwealth Cup if he's firing on all cylinders come April next year.

We’d already seen a more significant Classic pointer half-an-hour earlier though – when Lake Victoria stretched her unbeaten record to four with a dazzling display in the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes.

A daughter of Frankel, she was dropping back to six furlongs for the first time in her career having been strongest at the finish when winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes over seven on her previous start.

We thought it might prove too much of a speed test.

The market just before the off spoke otherwise, the well-backed 6/4 favourite showing a great change of gear entering The Dip to seal matters in a fleeting moment.

She came home three lengths clear of Daylight in a winning time that was 0.3 seconds faster than the one clocked by Shadow Of Light.

In terms of the 1000 Guineas she looks to just about have it all. The pedigree, scope to progress further, versatility in terms of ground and on Saturday she showed she handles the undulations of the track with his performance.

When Bedtime Story and Fairy Godmother won at Royal Ascot for Aidan O’Brien, it was hard to think the trainer could have something even more exciting, tucked way in the two-year-old fillies’ barn at Ballydoyle.

But the former finished lame when a beaten favourite in the Moyglare, we haven’t seen the latter since that sunny Berkshire afternoon and in the meantime, Lake Victoria has gathered momentum and gone forward with every run. The best by season's end is often not the one that shone brightest in the summer.

She’s as low as 7/4 for the Guineas and as big as 4/1. There’s no rush to get involved at those prices especially as she might not be finished for the season yet.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf is one option while Ryan Moore suggested coming back for the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket. The lads will decide but she’s laid down a significant marker to be the best two-year-old filly of 2024 although Zarkava’s granddaughter Zarigana has made a big splash in two starts in France to date and has the chance to go higher herself in next weekend’s Prix Marcel Boussac.

If it feels like we’re getting some clarity around the pecking order among the fillies, the previously mentioned Darley Dewhurst is our best chance of achieving the same in the colts' division.

Because, following a small setback that ruled him out of Saturday’s Goffs Million, that's the next port of call for Guineas and Derby favourite The Lion In Winter.

And both his – and main rival Ancient Truth’s – form received a timely boost when the upwardly mobile Wimbledon Hawkeye won the Royal Lodge.

He was third behind the Godolphin colt in the Superlative Stakes on the July Course, three-and-a-half lengths adrift, and improved nine pounds on Timeform ratings when getting within a length-and-three-quarters of the Irish star at York.

But he’s not just a yardstick by which others are measured.

He’s a strong colt, with plenty of scope and getting better with every run. I liked the way he took control of this from the two furlong pole and was strong to the line, beating Royal Playwright by a length-and-a-half.

That rival was a further three-quarters-of-a-length adrift of Field Of Gold in the Solario last time. You see the formlines are beginning to come together.

Whether Wimbledon Hawkeye runs again this season remains to be seen. James Owen was tempted by the prospect of Del Mar and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, owner Tim Gredley seemingly less so.

But he has the frame to make up into an even better three-year-old. He’s as low as 14/1 for the both the 2000 Guineas and Derby next year.

His stamina isn’t copper-bottomed for a mile-and-a-half, he’s by Kameko out of a half-sister to James Garfield. The dam, Eva Luna, was best at ten furlongs with one inconclusive run at 12.

So there must be a chance he’s going to follow in the hoofprints of last year’s winner Ghostwriter and end up being best at a mile-and-a-quarter but when you know you handle the Rowley Mile, why wouldn’t you roll the Classic dice on the first Saturday in May?

I expect they will – and perhaps Appleby and co will follow suit with Shadow Of Light.

But in terms of the Guineas, Lake Victoria was the one on Saturday to lay down the most significant marker.

It’s what days like these are designed for. Autumn is not just about determining the pecking order for the season gone – but to offer up at least tentative suggestions about what 2025 has in store too.

It's off to a good start this time around.

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