It's day one of the QIPCO Guineas Festival at Newmarket and our value-seeker is down to one Friday tip following a non-runner.
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Value Bet tips: Friday May 3
2pts win Zouky in 3.00 Newmarket at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Jehangeer in 3.35 Newmarket at 16/1 - NON-RUNNER
Ryan mighty on journey south
Very soft ground at Goodwood has resulted in their three televised races on Friday attracting just 16 runners between them and when you consider half of those are in the two-year-old novice event over five furlongs, it’s clearly not much of a betting card.
Newmarket’s opening day of the Guineas Festival is hardly a brilliant punting fixture either and the forecast showers (Lord knows how much they’ll get through the morning) could obviously result in the odd non-runner, although it’s officially good going at headquarters at the time of writing so hopefully we avoid a mass exodus.
The William Hill Jockey Club Stakes is the classiest race but I’m struggling to see beyond the top of the market there, which isn’t the case in the William Hill King Charles II Stakes in which Boiling Point looks a bit vulnerable again after being turned over at odds-on at the Craven meeting.
Indian Run is arguably the form horse based on his Acomb Stakes success at York and he was last seen finishing 13 lengths behind City Of Troy in the Dewhurst.
He’s another who looks plenty short enough and I’m going to have a dart at JEHANGEER for trainer Kevin Ryan who pulled a rabbit from the hat with 33/1 shot Washington Heights in last month’s Abernant.
Ryan is one of those (many) northern yards who should always be respected when heading south for a principal meeting and, more importantly, his horses look well ahead in their prep work which can’t be said for every top yard in Britain just yet – north and south.
The incessant rain earlier in the year has clearly put a few major operations on the back foot but Ryan has sent out four winners and a bunch of places in the past fortnight alone so I don’t think Jehangeer will come up short on fitness.
He could clearly come up short in terms of class but he’s one I’ve had marked as a possible improver at three ever since he was thrown into the Gimcrack after scrambling home in an Ayr maiden last summer.
The York challenge proved too much too soon but he signed off with a more encouraging third in the Rockingham Stakes back on the Knavesmire in October and that form has worked out well, winner Purosangue finishing third to Jasour in Wednesday’s Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot and runner-up Esquire winning the Greenham the other week.
Richard Fahey has a reasonable opinion of his filly who was fourth at York (Tropical Island) too and there was no disgrace in the inexperienced Jehangeer – rated just 84 at the time – finishing right in amongst that lot.
What’s more is that he’s bred to improve with age, being a full-brother to the yard’s Group 1 winner Hello Youmzain, and a half to the likes of Royal Youmzain and Hala Hala Athmani, so what we saw of him at two was probably just a fraction of what he might end up producing in the fullness of time.
He was second to the Coventry Stakes runner-up Army Of Ethos on debut last spring so might be another one they’re keen to crack on with during the early stages of the season, and I like the immediate step up to seven furlongs as his pedigree suggests he could improve for it.
I was a little less enamoured by the price drying up on Friday morning but those 48-hour prices (20/1-plus) were never going to last and I’d argue there’s still meat on the bone at 16/1 and even 14/1.
Zou holds key to competitive handicap
The William Hill Epic Boost Handicap is the other race on which to focus and I was seriously considering Lethal Levi before double-checking the weather forecast as while proven on most types of ground, a rattling-quick surface probably suits best and we won’t be getting that.
He’s also probably best second time out but the promising racecourse gallop alongside 1000 Guineas favourite Fallen Angel does stick in the mind rather and, back on his last winning mark (92), Karl Burke’s horse is one I could be tempted by if they avoid the worst of the rain.
Otherwise, I’m all in on the filly ZOUKY.
She copes well with a bit of ease underfoot having won stylishly on good to soft at Newbury last August, which shouldn’t come as a great surprise as she’s out of a Tobougg mare and is a half-sister to soft-ground scorers Maljaa and Ventura Mist.
Zouky’s next run the following month is the one which suggests she’s potentially still well treated as she split Poet Master and Dark Thirty in a Doncaster handicap over seven furlongs, with Nine Tenths back in fourth.
The winner and third both won at last month’s Craven meeting, while William Haggas’s Nine Tenths has gone on to have a successful all-weather winter campaign, winning a handicap at Wolverhampton and the Listed Wulfruna Stakes there in early-March.
Zouky didn’t quite cut it when upped to Listed level herself at Ascot (7f) and Lingfield (1m) in the autumn but she was only beaten half a length in fifth in the first of those races and was up against four horses with triple-figure BHA marks in the latter.
She also caught the eye in considerable fashion on her recent comeback run in the Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes at Kempton, travelling well close to the pace, briefly leading, before not quite seeing out the mile trip and ending up fifth to the Joseph O’Brien-trained Adelaise (rated 98).
She was beaten less than two lengths at the line, without Oisin Murphy over-doing it once her chance of winning had gone, and it smacked of a run she probably needed.
Back to seven furlongs and back in a handicap with a low draw in stall two – they often head far side at this meeting, especially when there’s rain around – there’s too much in this filly’s favour to let her go unbacked.
Published at 1515 BST on 02/05/24
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