Newmarket and York tips: Best value bets for Saturday October 14

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Value Bet tips: Saturday, October 14

1pt win Magical Spirit in 2.25 York at 33/1 (General)

1.5pts e.w. Jesse Evans in 2.40 Newmarket at 11/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt win Titian in 3.35 York at 10/1 (General)

1pt win Real Gain in 3.50 Newmarket at 6/1 (General)

Already advised

0.5pts win Blazeon Five in 2.40 Newmarket at 25/1

0.5pts win Golden Shot in 2.40 Newmarket at 25/1

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O'Brien's race to lose

After Friday’s 10-strong jamboree we have another nine ITV races to get stuck into on Saturday and, providing the weather doesn’t scupper Aidan O’Brien’s running plans as it did at the Curragh last month, Newmarket’s Future Champions Festival really does come alive with poster-boy City Of Troy headlining the Native Trail’s Dewhurst Stakes.

My instinctive reaction would be to err on the side of scepticism following something like City Of Troy’s Superlative Stakes, which universally had jaws dropping almost to the ground, but everything about him including his pedigree looks top-class already and he now just has to go and prove the July Course performance wasn’t too freakish to be true.

I can’t construct anything like a coherent case to take the favourite on and certainly won’t be forcing the issue given the punting options elsewhere, but in the same breath I’m in no rush to write off a big run from his stablemate Henry Adams, who is the only one in the field with Group 1 experience having not been disgraced in the Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc weekend.

O’Brien has saddled the one-two in five Dewhursts already and they include runners-up at 20/1, 50/1 and 66/1. Henry Adams is around 10/1 ‘without the favourite’ with the odd firm and I could be tempted into throwing a few quid at the forecast on the day too.

Jesse made of the right stuff

Cutting to the chase, the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap is out on its own as by far the most appealing betting race of the day and although I’ve already got a couple of antepost irons in the fire at big prices, we now know the full extent of the Irish challenge which remained in some doubt when first looking at the race.

Willie Mullins has ended up with half a dozen if you include the second reserve Stoke The Fire, while his nephew, Emmet, runs 10-year-old The Shunter, who hasn’t done a massive amount since his 2020-21 heroics but is seemingly lingering on a decent Flat mark these days.

Gordon Elliott bagged Ryan Moore for Pied Piper earlier in the week and the chestnut is inevitably short in the betting, but I’m not sure he quite has the mental fortitude to match fellow Irish runner JESSE EVANS, and I make Noel Meade’s horse a strong each-way fancy with extra places on offer.

By the looks of things, Jesse Evans has inherited one or two traits from his old man So You Think, in that he’s not short on class but above all he’s about as tough as they come in a battle.

He’s come out on the wrong side of a few of those scraps over the years, including filling the runner-up spot in the past two runnings of the Galway Hurdle, but he’s got more wins than seconds in his profile and, just three weeks after his head defeat to Zarak The Brave at Galway this summer, he won well off an Irish Flat mark of 89 at Killarney.

Meade was happy to roll the dice a month later and Jesse Evans almost repaid the faith with a highly creditable fourth, beaten just a length off 96, in pretty desperate conditions in the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh.

He’s been bumped up again to 101 in Ireland on the back of that but is able to get in here with a BHA rating of just 95 and, given he’s a proper 150-rated hurdler, there’s clearly still a little bit of wriggle-room from that perch if he’s able to maintain his fine run of form.

He tends not to run at all through the deepest, darkest winter so it’s safe to assume this will be his last big day before another well-earned break, and I reckon he’ll give Oisin Orr a brilliant spin from a central draw in stall 18 (seven of the past 10 winners were housed in stalls 13-24).

Plenty to Gain from Hughes-trained improver

The Earthlight Darley Stakes is an interesting one as I’m not sure I could completely trust Knight at a relatively short price, despite the fact he’s been showing a good enough level of form over the past couple of months.

He was beaten narrowly in first-time cheekpieces last time at Sandown, where he didn’t appear to be crying out for the extra furlong on offer here.

Maximilian Caesar has improved since stepped up in trip after a 50-day break in the summer and the complete outsider could have more to offer, but the really appealing three-year-old getting weight off the older horses is REAL GAIN.

He’d looked promising enough previously but seemed to have grown up all of a sudden when making a mockery of his handicap mark (91) over this course and distance late last month (replay below), and the way he hits the ground leaves the impression he could step forward again with a bit of ease underfoot. His half-brother Real Force won races on testing ground so I’ve got no concerns on that score.

Trainer Richard Hughes has had a cracking season already and this looks a bit of a stable star, with whom he could end the year on a real high.

Take two on tough card at York

There are a couple of obvious races to attack at York and the standout selection at current odds is TITIAN in the 10-furlong Coral Racing Bet Bundles Handicap.

He’s technically 1lb wrong but was only beaten a neck when second off Saturday’s mark (81) in the Spring Mile at the start of the season and he’s been running nicely in defeat over that trip lately too, not least when third behind Painters Palette and La Trinidad at Redcar last Saturday.

Julie Camacho – another trainer enjoying a terrific year it must be said – continues to fire in the winners at the moment and Titian looks bound to appreciate the step back up in distance here, where he won a course and distance handicap 12 months ago.

Earlier on the card, the Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap is a typically wide-open, six-furlong handicap featuring a whole host of track regulars.

The likes of Montassib, Chuzzlewit and The Ridler are relative newcomers to this sort of scene and could go well but you really can’t underplay course experience in these York sprints and at the odds I want MAGICAL SPIRIT on side at a big price.

Kevin Ryan’s horse has never won here but he was fourth in this race three seasons ago and was back to his very best when third behind stablemate Bielsa at this year’s Dante meeting.

He’s got a serious chance on that level of form as he gets to run off a 4lb lower mark despite showing up quite well on the Knavesmire when sixth to Aberama Gold in the Sky Bet Dash in the summer.

He must have had a small issue or something after that as he missed all of August and most of September too before resuming with what looked a bit of a pipe-opener (50/1) in the Ayr Gold Cup three weeks ago.

I expect him to leave that well behind back here as he’s got his ground and is drawn in the middle so should be able to follow the bulk of the early pace, which could well develop towards the far-side rail courtesy of Hyperfocus and Mr Wagyu.

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Published at 1600 BST on 12/10/23

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