Newmarket 2000 Guineas tips: Best value bets for Saturday May 6

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 117pts profit.
• So far this year he's +27.44pts having tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1, Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1 (R4) and Gloire D’athon at 14/1 (R4).

Value Bet tips: Saturday, May 6

1pt win Juan Les Pins in 2.50 Newmarket at 14/1 (General)

1pt win Notre Belle Bete in 3.25 Newmarket at 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BoyleSports)

0.5pts win Tees Spirit in 4.00 Newmarket at 28/1 (General)

1.5pts e.w. Royal Scotsman in 4.40 Newmarket at 9/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Like most walks of life at present, it seems you’ve got to be all in or you’re out when it comes to Auguste Rodin in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas, but there is of course a perfectly reasonable middle ground in which one can accept that he’ll no doubt be much more effective over further as the year goes on, and yet may still get away with it by winning Saturday’s Classic.

That’s been my thinking since first assessing the race at the start of April and while I couldn’t quite nail my colours to any particular mast at that stage, I can’t resist an each-way bet against Aidan O’Brien’s supposed first-string whose current odds wreak of reputation.

Fellow Ballydoyle representative Little Big Bear, the mount of Wayne Lordan, is the biggest threat on form and made the shortlist along with Silver Knott for Charlie Appleby, who opened his Guineas account with Coroebus last year. But the Dewhurst form can typically be trusted and the 2022 edition – fought out by two colts sired by Guineas winners – looks to be a touch underestimated by the market this weekend.

Chaldean (Frankel) held off the late thrust of ROYAL SCOTSMAN (Gleneagles) here in October but there was only a head between them after Chaldean got first run and bagged the nearside rail, with Paul and Oliver Cole’s runner seemingly ridden more conservatively in a bid to get the seven-furlong trip.

He stayed it strongly as it turned out, shaping very much like he’d develop into a top miler at three and, unlike Chaldean who didn't have a great experience on his comeback in the Greenham at Newbury, I like the fact they’ve resisted the temptation to run in a trial this spring. He’ll be trained to the minute for this race.

Drawn next to the favourite, and also close to Little Big Bear, Charyn, Indestructible and Sakheer, who all seem likely to put plenty of pace to the race towards the stands’ side, Royal Scotsman should get plenty of cover, something he could have done with in the Coventry Stakes last summer when showing up really well for a long way before finishing third to Bradsell.

He subsequently bolted up in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood and clearly wasn't himself behind Noble Style in the Gimcrack (scoped dirty afterwards), so the Dewhurst performance after a 50-day break can arguably be marked up if anything.

He's a very fair price at a general 9/1 and is strongly fancied to be involved in the finish.

The other Group race I'll be dipping my toe in is the Howden Palace House Stakes which looks a really open renewal, for all that Twilight Calls has won fresh in the past and was last sighted following home the brilliant Nature Strip in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot last summer.

His trainer Henry Candy has been in good form lately too so he's unquestionably the horse to beat, but TEES SPIRIT is worth a small dart at huge odds.

Trained by Adrian Nicholls, he proved to be one of the most progressive sprinters of 2022, starting the campaign with a handicap success off a lowly mark of 71 and adding four more victories to the tally including the Epsom Dash and a narrow defeat of Erosandpsyche in a Listed race at Tipperary towards the end of August.

The runner-up that day went on to finish second to Highfield Princess in the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh the following month so it’s very respectable form and we can write off Tees Spirit’s only subsequent outing when completely ill at ease on the very soft ground in the Abbaye.

There are showers in the forecast this weekend but it seems unlikely to impact the going too significantly and he’s priced up as a no-hoper here which couldn’t be further from the truth.

I don’t mind the low draw for Tees Spirit in this race as he’ll presumably look to get out and claim the far rail early on, something that worked nicely for Khaadem who was drawn one when winning this 12 months ago.

Prior to that there are a couple of juicy handicaps to get stuck into, starting with the Howden Handicap in which JUAN LES PINS appeals.

Another prolific sprinter through last season, he moved from Ed Dunlop to Mick Appleby in the summer and really kicked on again with a hat-trick of handicap wins for his new yard before winding up with a fine third in the Ayr Gold Cup off a mark of 92.

Nudged up another couple of pounds for that effort, he’s back down the same amount for his recent comeback run in a quality seven-furlong handicap on this track, and returning to a strongly-run six furlongs looks bound to suit.

Frederick Larson takes off 3lb in the saddle and this horse will appreciate the prevailing conditions.

NOTRE BELLE BETE seems a very fair price in the Howden Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap) on the back of a career-best run when winning at Newcastle on Good Friday (replay below).

Andrew Balding’s horse has always had the potential to bridge the gap between top-level handicapper and genuine pattern performer and that most recent display left the strong impression he’s in for another good year as a fully-furnished five-year-old.

That took his all-weather record to four wins and four places from eight starts, while he remains 0-13 on turf, but it’s not like he’s never shown decent form on the grass and I reckon he’s been a shade unlucky on the odd occasion.

Still unexposed in the cheekpieces and over distances beyond a mile, he stayed the 10 furlongs really strongly at Gosforth Park, where he beat horses rated 100, 103 and 104. That shows he’s worth his revised mark of 104 and the booking of Harry Davies claiming 3lb helps in that regard anyway.

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Published at 1500 BST on 05/05/23

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