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Newmarket 2000 Guineas Day Horse Racing Tips: ITV Racing Tips for Saturday May 4
It's QIPCO 2000 Guineas day at Newmarket on Saturday and our Matt Brocklebank has three big-priced fancies to consider.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday May 4
1pt win Chipstead in 1.45 Newmarket at 16/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Mustazeed in 2.20 Newmarket at 33/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 25/1 General
1pt e.w. Redarna in 2.40 Thirsk at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Already advised
When the Chips are down...
Newmarket racegoers are in for a treat on Saturday as not only do we have a bumper nine-race card to sift through, but the 2024 running of the QIPCO 2000 Guineas Stakes could be one that’s remembered for a long time to come.
The last half-dozen winners of the first Classic of the season have all had their merits, but they’ve subsequently gone on to win just two Group 1s between them before ending their racing careers, whereas you get the impression there might be some dissatisfaction if last year’s star juvenile City Of Troy doesn’t win two more Classics before the year’s out.
That might be stretching it, of course, and for anyone – punters included – to already be looking beyond this weekend would be an error. Especially as we only need to look back 12 months to be reminded that even hyped-up Ballydoyle colts with outstanding pedigrees don’t always deliver when expectations are high.
But if you’re assessing City Of Troy as an individual then it’s very hard to see beyond him winning this, even more so now Friday’s steady rain has taken the sting out of the ground, at the same time potentially hindering the chances of the relatively speedy Rosallion, Task Force and Night Raider.
I argued a few weeks ago in the antepost preview that Ghostwriter’s quality pedigree and proven stamina for the mile could ultimately make him City Of Troy’s main threat on this galloping track, but there's a fairly significant caveat in that he needs to have improved another 7-10lb during the winter which is a big ask.
Interestingly, Clive Cox masterminded the career of another top-class son of Invincible Spirit in the sprinter Profitable, who for the first part of his career had his trainer convinced he wanted quick ground, only to end up winning a soft-ground King’s Stand at Royal Ascot. So the weather doesn't look likely to be an issue at all.
Ghostwriter was a progressive horse last year who ended up winning the Royal Lodge over the Guineas course and distance and he has what looks a kind draw in three, sandwiched between the favourite and second-favourite Rosallion and close to likely pace angles Haatem and (possibly) Night Raider.
He remains a fair price for anyone not yet involved around 16/1 but the desire to double down on him just isn’t strong enough for me so I can hardly recommend others do so; not when there are so many other appealing races to go at and in the six-furlong William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap, it looks a good move to have CHIPSTEAD on side.
He’s not got the unexposed, sexy profile of Noble Style or Rabaah but he’s a quality performer who ran in the Palace House Stakes at this meeting last year, before winning a big sprint handicap at York’s Dante meeting from a mark of 102.
He’s had a good time of things on the all-weather through the winter this time around, winning off 97 at Kempton and the same mark at Lingfield in March, where he had Summerghand half a length back in second.
Roger Teal’s horse finished on the heels of Summerghand when they were just out of the places here at the Craven meeting recently, but neither was that well placed given how that event unfolded and there looks to be more pace on here which should really play to the selection’s strengths.
Summerghand is favourite and Chipstead can be backed at 16/1 which doesn’t seem to make much sense. He’s versatile in terms of ground conditions and still looks well treated here running off 99, with stall 11 surely no bad thing given he’s just two away from trailblazer Abate in 13.
Make it Mustazeed on seasonal return
The returning Torito seems likely to take all the beating if ready to roll first time back in the William Hill Suffolk Stakes but it’s fair to say some of the John and Thady Gosden horses have looked in need of a run and I’ll take him on with MUSTAZEED down the bottom of the weights.
He too lacks a recent run but did win on seasonal debut over 10 furlongs at Newbury last April before following up over the same course and distance 12 months ago so hopefully it’s a good time to catch him.
Mustazeed remains 5lb higher than for the second of those victories but showed this mark of 88 wasn’t beyond him when second to the classy Certain Lad at Doncaster in the autumn, and on that running (recent Spring Cup fifth Bill Silvers was back in third) he has a real chance of hitting the frame here.
Local trainer Harry Eustace has only had a handful of winners since the turn of the year but the past fortnight has been far more encouraging, including a winner at Epsom and a whole host of horses who have run well in defeat, many of which hadn’t run during the winter.
It’s probably a case of the more overnight rain the better for this son of Territories, but he has won on good and good to firm ground too so there’s no fears on that score and I reckon he’s being overlooked in the market.
Take it as Red in Yorkshire
The Vickers.Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap is the other televised race that catches my eye and I can't resist an each-way interest on the veteran REDARNA.
The word 'veteran' probably gets bandied around a little too frequently in the Flat game but Dianne Sayer's 10-year-old is a bona fide qualifier, being a 14-time winner from his 57 lifetime starts, and he's popped up at big prices a few times too, most notably when winning this event in 2022 at odds of 66/1.
Rated 91 at the time, he's since added to his tally when defying a reduced mark (86) at Carlisle last summer and there's no way he's handicapped out of this off 88 if retaining the same level of ability in this, his ninth campaign in training.
That may feel like a big if but we do have solid evidence it could well be the case as he was a significant eyecatcher on his recent reappearance at Musselburgh, going off a largely unconsidered 28/1 chance before not getting much luck in the run and ultimately finishing better than anything in the final furlong.
Beaten just four lengths into fifth in Scotland, it looked a run he could build on and I love the set-up of the race back at Thirsk where there is loads of early pace signed up. Autumn Festival (stall 2), Hiromichi (3), Cruyff Turn (13) and Master Richard (15) all like to lead or sit handily and that could result in a late pace collapse, precisely what happened when the selection won from well off the pace here a couple of years ago.
In-form rider Joanna Mason should be able to pick her spot from stall 6 and, with extra places on offer, he makes more than enough each-way appeal around the 20/1 chance.
Published at 1600 BST on 03/05/24
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