Newcastle and Newmarket Tips Today: Best Value Bets for Saturday
Andrew Asquith steps in for Matt Brocklebank this week and has three fancies at Newcastle and Newmarket.
Value Bet tips: Saturday June 29
1pt e.w. Strike Red in 1.35 Newcastle at 18/1 (1/5, 1,2,3,4 Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill)
1pt e.w. Pouting in 2.15 Newmarket at 14/1 (1/5, 1,2,3,4 Coral)
1pt win Zimmerman in 2.35 Newcastle at 9/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill, Ladbrokes)
The bigger fields and arguably more competitive racing comes from Newcastle this weekend on Northumberland Plate Day. I’ve already put up a couple of selections on the card in my Weekend View column, including in the Northumberland Plate itself, and I’m happy with the position of those bets, so we will look elsewhere on what is a good-looking card.
There is a useful sprint handicap which kicks off proceedings and the horse I’m interested in is the Richard Fahey-trained STRIKE RED. I was pretty keen on this horse in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last week and, while he never threatened at the finish, he was only beaten five and three quarter lengths, and ran a fair bit better than his finishing position suggests.
Strike Red jumped and travelled well, racing a little closer to the pace than I expected he would, still in with a chance around two furlongs out but not finding much soon after, plugging on at the same pace on ground which was perhaps firmer than ideal.
He had caught the eye somewhat on his previous start in another competitive handicap at Epsom on Derby Day, going with plenty of enthusiasm and staying on well to the line on the far rail without being given too much of a hard time.
Strike Red can boast form figures of 411450 at Newcastle, all of which came over this course and distance barring his debut, and his latest start at this track can be overlooked as it was on his return from 10 months off and he was given far too much to do, while it also came at a time when Richard Fahey wasn’t firing on all cylinders.
He has now fallen back down to the same mark as when winning a big-field, competitive handicap at the Curragh last season (strong form), and I’m taking it as a plus that connections are happy to turn him out so quickly. There should be a good pace on for him to aim at here and the switch back to all-weather and this track should also suit, so he makes a fair bit of each-way appeal with most bookmakers offering enhanced places in an environment which won’t be as competitive as the Wokingham.
The market for the Northumberland Vase – a consolation race from the Plate – is headed by Alphonse Le Grande, who has won his last two starts, notably the Chester Plate – a consolation race for the Chester Cup – in good style last month. That was his first start beyond a mile and a half on the Flat and he clearly relished the test of stamina, so given he is very much unexposed as a stayer, it is no surprise to see him put in a short-priced favourite from an 8lb higher mark.
However, he is still a horse I want to take on at the prices, and one who is perhaps in better heart than his recent form figures suggest is ZIMMERMAN.
He is a four-time winner on the Flat, his last success coming in a heavy-ground handicap over this trip at Haydock last summer, where he did especially well to beat a thriving three-year-old who was in receipt of lumps of weight.
Zimmerman went on to finish placed in a couple of competitive staying handicaps at Chester and York on his next two starts last season and he shaped particularly well despite looking very rusty on his return from seven months off at Ripon in April. He didn’t build on that effort as expected at Haydock next time, but that was a 0-95 handicap, and he seemingly found that race too competitive.
He shaped better than the bare result when fifth at Chester last time, starting well and in a good position tracking the leaders, but he lost his position on the second circuit and found himself nearer last than first when the tempo started to quicken around four furlongs out. Zimmerman began to make headway again soon after but had too much to do and his effort flattened out in the straight.
He had run well at Chester before, so the course can’t really be put forward as an excuse, but he does strike me as a horse who is suited better by a more galloping track which will bring his stamina more into play.
Furthermore, it is interesting that connections reach for the cheekpieces again following his latest run, which should help him concentrate more mid-race, while three of his four wins have come in the same headgear. Zimmerman is just 1lb above his last winning mark and two miles at this track should really play to his strengths, so I expect him to launch a bold bid.
Over at Newmarket, small fields are the order of the day, which makes finding value selections a little more difficult. However, there is an interesting Listed race for two-year-old fillies where one of the maidens in the field interests me.
The horse in question in POUTING, whose sales price increased every time she went through the ring, ultimately bringing £150,000 at the breeze-ups earlier this year. She made her debut over five furlongs at Windsor last month and went incredibly close to making a winning start, catching the eye travelling better than most and she wasn’t at all given a hard time (only hit with the stick once).
Pouting also shaped very well on her latest start back and Windsor and upped to six furlongs. That race was won by the reopposing Celandine, who broke well and bagged the favoured stand-side rail, making all of the running, whereas Pouting was dropped in behind the leaders from the outside draw in stall 12.
She still looked inexperienced on that occasion, while she wasn’t helped by not getting the clearest run, either, still having a fair bit to do around two furlongs out, but again wasn’t rushed, and the ground she made up once balanced and on the right stride was quite eye-catching.
The visual impression was backed up by the clock, too, running the final three furlongs faster than all of her rivals, and I’d be confident she can reverse the form with Celandine now. There are several other promising fillies in this event, however, but in my opinion, Pouting has a fair bit more ability than she has been able to show so far, and I’m willing to take a chance on her taking a big step forward now.
Preview posted at 1515 BST on 28/06/2024
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