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Newcastle and Newbury tips: Best value bets for Coral Gold Cup day on Saturday November 30
It's Coral Gold Cup day on Saturday and Matt Brocklebank has four fresh bets to consider, including a big-priced fancy in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
Value Bet tips: Saturday November 30
0.5pts e.w. Tellherthename in 2.10 Newcastle at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt win Navajo Indy in 2.25 Newbury at 16/1 (William Hill)
1pt win Henry’s Friend in 3.00 Newbury at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Some Scope in 3.20 Newcastle at 18/1 (General)
Already advised
Henry could be friend for followers
Midnight River has been the long-term fancy for Saturday’s Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase and, after what seemed like some second thoughts from connections after Harry Skelton made it clear he’d be staying loyal to the mare Galia Des Liteaux earlier in the week, I’m pleased to see sense has prevailed and the nine-year-old has been given his chance.
Waiting for next month’s December Gold Cup at Cheltenham - where he won so impressively on New Year’s Day in 2023 - was presumably the alternative route to take but Midnight River has unfinished business at Newbury having been going well when falling here 12 months ago and he’s able to run from a 5lb lower mark this time around.
Without going over the whole case made in the antepost preview again, it does look a potentially generous piece of handicapping considering he’s only run the once since that tumble, and it was quite an encouraging marker he laid down when third over an inadequate trip at Wetherby.
The recent run should at least have blown the cobwebs away anyway, following 335 days out of competitive action, and stepping back up to a staying trip will suit this horse down to the ground.
In fact, his career-best effort came at the Grand National meeting last year when arguably looking a future Graded horse in winning the three-mile William Hill Handicap Chase with something to spare off a perch of 151 - precisely the same mark he’s been allotted for this weekend’s contest.
A flat, left-handed circuit holds no fears and although Harry has been on board for 20 of this horse’s 21 starts to date, I don’t mind the booking of James Bowen, and am definitely spurred on by the addition of first-time cheekpieces given the yard’s record when applying the headgear.
Double-figure odds (in a place) still look quite generous so I couldn’t put anyone off if coming to the race fresh, although I’ll add HENRY’S FRIEND to the staking plan.
He was quickly left behind in a four-runner handicap hurdle on good ground when making his seasonal return here last month (no headgear) but should be a different proposition altogether back over fences with an outing under his belt.
He stepped up from a low-key comeback last year to win a novice chase on this track over a similar trip at the Challow meeting in December, before completing a hat-trick after wins at Hereford and in the Reynoldstown at Ascot.
That was a weak enough renewal of the Grade 2 race but Ben Pauling’s horse once again showed a really gritty attitude and I do think that when he’s on song, he only seems to do what’s asked of him and will never win by wide margins.
The National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham was a forgettable experience entirely but he remains open improvement and looks a bit of a forgotten horse in that second-season chasing category - which have done well in the race historically.
Henry’s Friend does remind me a touch of De Rasher Counter who was incidentally also ridden by Ben Jones when successful here a few years back, and that one had a prep run over the smaller obstacles too, continuing the theme.
The cheekpieces worn for his winning run last term are back on for the principal early-season target which must be a positive sign, and his yard has been going very well so there’s plenty to like about him sneaking in here under a low weight.
Indy rock and roll from the front?
NAVAJO INDY looks a bet in the Coral Racing Club Intermediate Handicap Hurdle.
Tom Symonds’ horse is an uncomplicated, prominent racer who is fighting-fit after a comeback run at Bangor, where he toughed it out in game fashion to defy a penalty and follow up his maiden win at Wincanton from the back-end of last season.
His one disappointing run as a novice came at Fontwell on heavy going so he wouldn’t want it extreme here, but soft ground is no issue and I like his course and distance maiden form back in January when second to Dan Skelton’s Be Aware, runner-up in last month’s Greatwood off 130 (since raised to 137).
Navajo Indy only went up 4lb (to 120) for his comeback win and I’ve got nothing at all against Caoilin Quinn but Gavin Sheehan taking the ride for the first time looks a considerable boost as there are few better around this course in my view, especially from the front.
Tell me a story...
Up at Newcastle, the BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle is the highlight on the card and TELLHERTHENAME’s odds look a bit of an insult.
With an official mark of just 135, in reality he should probably have run in the aforementioned contest at Newbury (or another handicap), but connections are clearly keen to focus on looking for a sound surface, which he’ll no doubt get here, and going for the Grade 1 is something of a statement of intent.
The four-year-old Sir Gino would have gone chasing by now had Constitution Hill been fit and well, while the other market leader, Mystical Power, didn’t appear until mid-January last term and, having seen the Mullins horses at Punchestown last weekend, I find it hard to believe he’ll be anywhere near fully wound up for this seasonal comeback.
That pair could obviously be too classy regardless, but Tellherthename made a good impression as a novice around this time last year so I could see him hitting the ground running - especially as he’ll be at a clear tactical advantage, being the only confirmed front-runner in this field.
He was completely stuffed by Mystical Power (who finished second) in the Sky Bet Supreme in March but the going was pretty rotten that day and it was the same story when Tellherthename was pulled-up in the Grade 1 at Aintree last Christmas. He evidently hates it testing, as his former trainer Pauling kept stressing throughout the year.
On better ground, he looked a very accomplished hurdler in two wins at Huntington, and he’s surely got the most potential in this group barring the two at the top of the betting.
New trainers Jonjo and AJ O’Neill have made a decent start to the campaign which offers further encouragement, and I like the fact regular rider Kielan Woods has followed the owners, as it were, so can keep the association going with the five-year-old.
I can’t resist a small each-way interest, providing the eight do go to post.
Scope for improvement on good ground
The BetMGM Rehearsal Handicap Chase looks an incredibly open race and you could make some sort of case for half the field.
Gustavian made the shortlist as he’s so well handicapped these days but he lacks scope for further improvement compared to a few others and they include the big-priced SOME SCOPE.
Trainer Richard Hobson will probably be tempted to have another go at Cheltenham at some point, given it’s his local track, but I’m not convinced this horse is fully at home around the ups and downs of Prestbury Park and I can write off the comeback run there last month as he made some bad early jumping errors and just looked very rusty before eventually being pulled-up.
Having improved at least 10lb - on the face of it - following his comeback run last November, there’s every reason to expect a sharper model turning up this weekend and I can see why he’s back on a flatter track as he’s won races around Haydock, Catterick and Doncaster in the past.
He backed up his January win on Town Moor with a creditable second to Does He Know in the Grimthorpe (only two finished) and is back on the same mark this Saturday. A sound surface looks quite important to Some Scope (won a hurdle on good to firm, according to Timeform) and there might be some improvement forthcoming having undergone a breathing operation since his last run.
Published at 1600 GMT on 29/11/24
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