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Newbury tips: Preview & best value bets for Coral Gold Cup meeting on Friday November 29
It's day one of the Coral Gold Cup meeting at Newbury and Matt Brocklebank has three generously-priced horses to consider.
Value Bet tips: Friday November 29
1pt win Masaccio in 1.55 Newbury at 13/2 (General)
1pt win Lord Baddesley in 2.30 Newbury at 20/1 (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Annsam in 3.40 Newbury at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365)
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Mas appeal in cracking novice chase
Friday’s Coral Long Distance Hurdle could be a tactically interesting race to watch but when you weigh up the fact that the leading form horses are without a recent run - and that one of them is Langer Dan - you’d be hard pressed to consider it a sensible contest in which to part with your cash.
Perhaps the general odds-on quotes about Strong Leader are perfectly fair after Olly Murphy’s improver ended last year with a Grade 1 victory at Aintree, but he’s been pretty well held on his seasonal debut (twice) in the past and the testing ground probably isn’t his ideal cup of tea either.
Monmiral - whose odds were shortening throughout Thursday - makes only limited appeal in opposition, so I’ll move on quickly and it would appear that the chase course is expected to ride a good bit better than the hurdles track.
Only half a dozen were declared for the Coral John Francome Novices’ Chase but it looks a belting Grade 2, featuring Captain Teague who could quite clearly be the next cab off the rank for Paul Nicholls, who has saddled the winner of this race five times including with future stars like Denman and Clan Des Obeaux.
I’ve very little against the favourite but after his Exeter walkover we've yet to see him jump a fence and, more importantly, there must be a chance he’s a bona fide three-miler who they’re hoping can masquerade as a middle-distance chaser before the turn of the year.
There’s a similar line of thinking with Ben Pauling’s The Jukebox Man too in truth so I can oppose the top of the market. If the going was completely bottomless then I’d be wary of taking them on, but the forecast is largely clear and I just wonder if that pair might get outpaced by something else with a slicker change of gear in this field.
The most obvious one is Johnnywho after his cosy Carlisle win over the reopposing Bugise Seagull, but he scored in Cumbria first time up last year before not fully delivering on that promise and I prefer the claims of Alan King’s MASACCIO.
Like Johnnywho, we already know for sure that he’s taken well to the larger obstacles, and I couldn’t help but conclude that he must have a serious engine when recovering from a blunder four from home to win first time out over fences over this course and distance earlier in the month.
He was last of the five finishers - and behind three of Friday’s rivals - in the Challow Novices’ Hurdle here last December but already looks a much better chaser than he was a hurdler and the comeback run could have sharpened him up considerably too.
He had no real right to get up and beat the front-running Twinjets that day but did so with plenty in hand in the end, with 15 lengths back to the third home. This obviously requires more but I’m keen to see what Masaccio can achieve this season and, at the odds, can comfortably back him to bridge the apparent class gap on this lot.
Honeyball flying with new recruits
LORD BADDESLEY is another previous course winner to consider closely in the Coral ‘Daily Rewards Shaker’ Handicap Chase.
He doesn’t have a particularly glitzy profile and he’s one of the most exposed runners in the race as a nine-year-old but he’s not been with Anthony Honeyball long, making just the one start so far since being moved from Chris Gordon's.
I can’t pretend to know what prompted the Richard and Carol Cheshire horses to switch stables but Honeyball has already had some success for the owners, with Kapability looking a smart recruit in a fillies’ bumper at Aintree last month and Saladins Son winning a maiden hurdle at Huntingdon just last weekend.
Honeyball has had two seconds and two fourths in the same silks so must have made a decent impression and the only one to have completely let the side down - on the face of it - is Lord Baddesley, who was never sighted in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton.
However, a closer look back at that showed he didn’t stand much of a chance as he was initially held up well off the pace (race won by front-running Al Dancer) and was then badly hampered by a faller when just starting to creep into the picture five fences from the finish.
What he did avoid, however, was having a hard race first time back and the handicapper dropping him another 2lb leaves him looking decidedly well treated running off a mark of just 127.
He’s won handicaps in the past off 125 (fences) and 124 (hurdles), while he was fourth in the 2022 Betfair Hurdle off 123 so clearly has a squeak off this revised rating.
Still very lightly-raced in the tongue-tie (Honeyball has a 24.34% strike-rate with tongue-strapped runners compared to 18.68% without) and dropping back down to a more favourable distance of two and a half miles, this horse looks likely to appreciate a return to a left-handed track and he’ll be fine on the ground as well.
Play it again, Annsam
In the concluding Coral ‘Pipped-At-The-Post’ And Win Handicap Hurdle, the unexposed, progressive pair of Woodie Flash and Largy Poet are understandably proving popular with punters but there are some interesting old boys in here too, not least Nicky Henderson’s Chantry House, plus the two horses looking to defy incredibly long layoffs – Lossiemouth (1066 days) and Vee Dancer (1081 days since he last ran over hurdles, 609 on the Flat).
Both Vee Dancer and Lossiemouth were prolific in their youth and a lot will depend on how their preparation has gone but time off the track is rarely a massive issue these days and it’s probably worth pointing out that Lossiemouth’s new trainer Polly Gundry has been known to pull the odd rabbit out of her hat.
Regardless of that, match-sharpness remains a key asset this time of year and ANNSAM might be able to remind everyone of his talents having been given a major chance by the handicapper.
He’s been a real star for connections and can boast four wins from 12 starts over hurdles and an identical record over fences too.
Perhaps he’ll be back over the bigger obstacles before long but his last published mark in that sphere was 147 and he’s able to run off 134 here, having been eased again for his comeback outing over hurdles at Cheltenham.
Beaten 28 lengths in the end that day, he ran a bit better than the bare result having been close to the pace early and it eventually became very clear the outing was needed (66/1 SP arguably told a tale on that score).
He’s nearly always improved for a run or two in the past and I expect he’ll be much straighter on this occasion, while a return to Newbury looks no bad thing as his last hurdles success came over this course and distance in April 2022.
He went on to win nice handicap chases at Kempton and Ludlow from respective marks of 135 and 142 during 2023 and last month’s run was actually his first start since the bet365 Gold Cup of that spring so it was good to see him race with plenty of the old enthusiasm.
Trainer Evan Williams could be in better form, admittedly, but that looks to be contributing to this horse's big price and I'm loathe to believe he's anything like a spent force at the age of nine.
Published at 1600 GMT on 28/11/24
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