Newbury Saturday preview and tips

By Ed Watson

Horse Racing

Sat December 02, 2023 · 1y ago

Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst Ed Watson pinpointed last week’s Haydock Grade 2 winner Kamsinas (16/5). Here, he runs the rule over the Coral Gold Cup undercard and makes a case for one at a big price.

MIGHTY MOTH (11.55 Newbury)

This looks a thin renewal of a prize won in recent seasons by Le Bague Au Roi, Floressa, Elle Et Belle and Luccia. Manimole is hardly your typical contender for a race of this nature, having already run 15 times over hurdles. I got the sense that her ‘career-best’ effort last time, when a clear-cut winner of a mares-only novice over this track and trip, came in a race which fell apart in behind.

Isabella Bea has completed a hat-trick in run-of-the-mill handicaps, while Belle Of Annandale (a 17-race, 64-rated maiden on the Flat) steps up in grade having won minor events at Perth and Musselburgh, in between a heavy defeat at Hexham. Hardly stuff that screams stellar Listed contest, is it?

As such, Noel Williams may have landed on a gilt-edged opportunity for Mighty Moth to break her hurdles duck and bag that all-important black type success at the second time of asking.

Her first, against the colts and geldings at Ascot a month ago, didn’t have Timeform’s stop-watch enthusiasts going ga-ga, but that was more down to the fact they crawled through the early stages. While beaten a dozen lengths into third, time may well show she was pitched in deep against two expensive point-to-point recruits who are likely to go on to bigger and better things.

The short-head runner-up Tellherthename bolted up at Huntingdon last weekend to earn a BHA mark of 130 and was quickly labelled “the best I’ve ever ridden” by Kielan Woods. We’ve yet to see the winner Jango Baie reappear, but given his trainer Nicky Henderson used that same Ascot race to launch the hurdling careers of Altior and My Tent Or Yours, he’ll surely be pointed at Graded targets before long.

Mighty Moth, in turn, pulled well clear of the remainder, who’ve done their bit to advertise the form since, including the sixth, who was a well-backed winner at Uttoxeter on Sunday. Back against fellow mares and fillies now, this race looks a fair bit weaker for all it has Listed status.

The Inside Word

“I was delighted with her Ascot run, where she had nearly £400,000 worth of gelding in front of her. I didn’t really want to take on the boys but I felt it was the right track for her getting her started over hurdles. I can’t believe she’s still a maiden! She’s never run a bad race, including in her three bumpers. I really fancied her in the last of those at Cheltenham in April and couldn’t believe it when she got beaten. She just ran into one on the day. I purposely left a little bit to work on after Ascot and, granted the usual improvement, I expect to have a very good chance." - Noel Williams, trainer

SEBASTOPOL (1.40 Newbury)

If you’re unfamiliar with conditional jockey Cameron Iles, then it’s hardly a surprise. The 7lb claimer is used only sparingly by Tom Lacey. Iles has had only 22 rides in 2023, all of them for Lacey, yet he’s won on seven of them for a strike-rate of nearly 33%, including three out of nine so far this season.

Today, Iles is entrusted with his highest-profile ride yet on Sebastopol, who famously beat Stage Star in a Grade 2 over fences at this meeting 12 months ago. He’s reverted to hurdles this season and, in an open race, I can’t help but think he’s been too easily dismissed as a 20/1 outsider on the back of a below-par effort when beaten favourite at Kelso 10 weeks ago.

While his finishing effort there was a tad underwhelming, having travelled into the race with all of his customary elan, he was attempting to concede the best part of a stone-and-a-half to a well-treated rival in Glinger Flame - who won again next time and is now rated 10lb higher - and an in-form horse in Bucko's Boy, who’d won his previous two. Maybe it wasn’t that bad a run, after all.

Sebastopol wants genuinely good ground to be seen to best effect, as it was when he outclassed his rivals at Newton Abbot at the start of September, scooting clear after the last for a cosy success under Stan Sheppard off 5lb lower. Iles’ claim at least brings him back down below that mark here, notwithstanding his young rider’s relative inexperience.

On the plus side, Lacey’s horses couldn’t be in better form right now (he’s won with six of his 14 runners in the last fortnight), while Timeform’s prediction of a ‘strong’ pace would also play to this renowned smooth-traveller’s strengths. He won’t be for everyone admittedly, but he does look overpriced in a race which has thrown up winners at 20/1, 16/1, 14/1 (three times) and 12/1 in the last 10 years.

The Inside Word

“I’ve put Cameron on to claim off Sebastopol because I felt he got clobbered for winning at Newton Abbot. I was very disappointed with the Kelso run. I thought he would win there. The ground was slowest up the home straight and he wants it lively, while maybe he’s not a horse who backs up quickly and that was a fairly quick turnaround. Other than that, I’ve no excuses. Cameron is a young lad who works in the yard. He’s pretty inexperienced and he’s going to have top-of-the-range riders all round him on Saturday, but I wouldn’t use him if I didn’t think he was up to it. Sebastopol is an uncomplicated ride. If Cameron can stay in and around them coming to the last, we’ll see how we get on.” - Tom Lacey, trainer

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