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Newbury and Warwick tips: Best value bets for Saturday February 12
Value Bet tips: Saturday February 12
1pt win Sussex Ranger in 1.50 Newbury at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Wishing And Hoping in 3.15 Warwick at 16/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)
1pt e.w. Royaume Uni in 3.35 Newbury at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
It’s hard to understand why no Irish trainers have fancied a piece of the Betfair Hurdle pie for a couple of seasons now, but the Dublin Racing Festival presumably plays a small part and trainers like Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Gary Moore – who all target this weekend annually – probably can’t believe their luck.
It’s been a while since Henderson's fifth victory in Saturday’s big race (My Tent Or Yours, 2013) but it is evidently one in which he likes to run a nice novice or two which makes sense given it's the country’s biggest handicap hurdle and only half an hour from his Lambourn base.
The Seven Barrows trainer has a couple of likely-looking types in the field this time around including JP McManus’s Broomfield Berg, who was a very easy winner at Kempton on Boxing Day.
He barely had to come off the bridle to justify odds-on favouritism there but that’s my biggest issue with him as he’d looked all over the winner at Cheltenham the time before, only to wilt under pressure in a head-to-head with Lively Citizen (also won since).
Perhaps they’ve tweaked a few things at home as he went without the hood last time too but I’d still have serious doubts about him when the chips are down in any case and, at the prices, I’m far more interested in Cheltenham third ROYAUME UNI, who gets a 4lb pull with favourite Broomfield Burg having finished just under four lengths behind him at the International meeting.
Another look at the replay shows the Moore representative was probably a little unlucky not to get closer to the front two as he was squeezed for room at a key moment turning in, though it’s hard to argue it was the difference between winning and losing.
Royaume Uni has since finished 11 lengths adrift of Henderson’s other runner, First Street, at Kempton in mid-January and he’ll need to step up a fair bit on that effort to win a Betfair Hurdle, but I’m not sure the bad ground would have suited the son of Galileo that day, while he’s also got a pretty significant 10lb pull with the winner on revised terms.
With a dry forecast, conditions look like being absolutely ideal for this lively outsider, who is closely related to a number of high-class, German-trained Flat horses including four-time Group One winner Novellist.
He’s a very strong traveller when on song and should get a decent pace to chase in this field, which isn’t always the case in these valuable Saturday handicaps, while it may be a bit of a pointer that Jamie Moore has presumably chosen to ride him over stablemate Fifty Ball, who himself is back on a good mark having been second in this race 12 months ago.
Is Nicholls worth opposing after brief hiatus?
The rest of the Newbury card lacks much appeal from a purely punting perspective.
On softer ground I’d be extremely keen to side with Pats Fancy, who is one of the few novices around who will be able to match Bravemansgame in the jumping department. His back-to-back Chepstow wins over Gericault Roque and Imperial Alcazar read really well now and there could be some big days ahead for Rebecca Curtis’s horse.
However, he evidently lacks the raw ability of Bravemansgame and on the prevailing ground I’m not convinced 16lb will be enough to bridge that class gap.
On a wider point, there’s obviously been a cloud over the Nicholls horses in general for a while now (no runner since last weekend) but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they suddenly click into gear on a weekend the champion trainer has always backed to the hilt.
His Clan Des Obeaux and Hitman are the horses to beat in the Betfair Denman Chase and Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase respectively, though it goes without saying I’d like to see another positive display from antepost Cheltenham longshot Funambule Sivola in the latter. He's a tough little cookie and Venetia Williams has seen the light in dropping this horse back to two miles lately.
Rather than force a bet or two against the Ditcheat big guns, I’ll stick with Moore again in what looks a wide-open Daily Rewards With Betfair Handicap Hurdle.
The Brimming Water is favourite here having backed up his Wetherby win over subsequent winner Unexpected Party with a fair third off 7lb higher at Haydock, but there isn’t much pace on at all and I’m hoping SUSSEX RANGER gets his own way.
He must have picked up an injury when down the field at Exeter in November 2020 as he spent 411 days out of action after that, and in truth hasn’t shown a whole lot in two chase starts since coming back around the turn of the year.
He made some shocking mistakes when eventually finishing fourth to Cat Tiger at Ascot last time but he’s now returned to hurdles for the first time since the spring of 2019. That looks quite a shrewd move for the horse, who won on this card in the novices’ handicap chase a couple of years ago.
Never far off the pace that day, he looks the only confirmed front-runner in this line-up and gets to run off a career-low handicap mark.
A fantastic Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase is the obvious draw at Warwick and I fully anticipate Third Time Lucki giving Edwardstone far more of a race than he could muster at Sandown.
In fact, I don’t think we saw anything like the real version of Dan Skelton’s horse in the Henry VIII and, having been sent off favourite that day, it’s not hard to see him setting the record straight around here following quite a striking display at Doncaster since.
Wishing for a big run at Warwick
The Virgin Bet Warwick Castle Handicap Chase is a more tempting heat in terms of a bet, though, and WISHING AND HOPING is worth chancing.
He doesn’t look particularly well handicapped at first glance but the lightly-raced 12-year-old has plenty of classy form to his name including on the hunter chase scene.
Formerly with Alan King, the Rowleys (Philip, then current trainer Melanie) have rekindled his enthusiasm hunting and point-to-pointing over the past couple of years and he probably produced a career-best effort when winning a handicap chase at Aintree from a mark of 135 earlier this season.
That impressive, front-running display prompted connections to have a shot at the Many Clouds Chase, for which he was just 12/1, and while that proved too hot for him on pretty horrible ground, he’s since bounced back with a fair effort behind Caribbean Boy at Kempton.
He’ll be much happier back on a left-handed course, having jumped away to the left last time, and I can’t see the drop in distance being an issue for him either, especially if setting out to make the running.
He’s not the only prominent racer in this event but if he can master Lieutenant Rocco early doors then he might not be overly pestered, and this is a great track for positively-ridden chasers who can get into a rhythm and leave rivals struggling to make up ground around the tight home turn.
Published at 1440 GMT on 11/02/22
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