Some competitive action from Newbury and Kelso on the ITV schedule this weekend and Matt Brocklebank has cast his eye over a few of the big races.
Value Bet tips: Saturday March 22
1pt win Jackpot Des Bordes in 2.05 Newbury at 10/1 (William Hill, bet365)
1pt win Imperial Data in 2.25 Kelso at 22/1 (Paddy Power)
1pt win Crazierthandaisy in 3.15 Newbury at 11/1 (General)
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Jade De Grugy may have bumped into a rerouted and rekindled Lossiemouth when bidding to emulate former star Honeysuckle in last week’s Mares’ Hurdle but owner Kenny Alexander still enjoyed a fine Cheltenham Festival courtesy of wins for Kargese in the County Hurdle and Doddiethegreat, who led home a one-two for Nicky Henderson in the Pertemps Final.
Alexander and Henderson have a very tidy 37% strike-rate (7-19) together over the past five seasons and I can get on board with that percentage potentially moving up again this weekend thanks to CRAZIERTHANDAISY at Newbury.
One of two runners for the Seven Barrows yard, along with La Pinsonniere, in the BetVictor British EBF “National Hunt” Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, it appears stable jockey Nico de Boinville has gone for the one with the slightly stronger form, but it’s not hard to envisage Crazierthandaisy proving to be the better handicapped of the pair.
James Bowen has a bit of previous riding the six-year-old too, having steered her home when opening her bumper account at the second time of asking at Plumpton last April.
She appeared to get a bit stuck in the mud when beaten 10 lengths on her seasonal/hurdling debut at Uttoxeter in late-November but has gradually stepped up on that effort in two subsequent starts. Crazierthandaisy was beaten a length by the reopposing Jakana at Southwell in December but a mistake two-out cost her dearly there and she duly set the record straight at Warwick later that month.
Things were briefly looking uncomfortable for favourite-backers again that day but De Boinville got stuck in a little earlier than at Southwell which definitely helped and the mare ended up staying on strongly to score with any amount in hand.
That saw her qualify for this weekend's final and it looks quite significant that her connections have sat tight for the best part of three months. There's got to be a chance they’ve been protecting what’s believed to be a decent handicap mark (109), and I reckon the prevailing ground this weekend comes as a bit of a bonus to sit on top of what’s hopefully been a well-hatched plan.
Earlier on at Newbury, JACKPOT DES BORDES is another handicap newcomer of considerable interest in the opening race.
His trainer Paul Nicholls won the Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle with Good Ball in 2021 and this year’s representative brings some encouraging form to the table, including a half-length bumper second to Celtic Dino, who is now rated 132 over hurdles.
His three hurdles starts in maiden and novice races before the turn of the year have yielded mixed results, but the Taunton win over Saint Anapolino was at one stage looking better by the week, seeing as the runner-up went on to rack up a hat-trick of wins before finishing sixth off a mark of 130 at Kempton earlier this month.
Jackpot Des Bordes’ last run, when unable to concede a penalty to U Cant Be Serious, was by no means a disgrace and just looked a case of him being a bit outpaced following the steady early gallop.
Granted, he was well enough placed if good enough, but the winner had too much natural speed from the top of the home straight and the Nicholls horse will be happier travelling away in a bigger, well-contested field on a more galloping track this weekend.
I like the addition of cheekpieces too as Nicholls has a really record when first applying that headgear (19.2% strike-rate). When he adds it to a horse who already wears a tongue-tie (which is the case here), that hit-rate rises to 28.26% (13 winners from 46, level stakes profit of +25.34).
The opening mark of 118 looks more than manageable based on the aforementioned evidence and, incidentally, that’s precisely the same rating that his half-brother (Henderson-trained Ideal Des Bordes) won off on his handicap debut just a couple of months ago.
Kelso are putting up some fantastic prize money for their ‘Finals’ day and have thankfully been rewarded with some seriously competitive racing.
A (baker’s) dozen horses were balloted out of the Ladbrokes Go North Cab On Target Handicap Hurdle and the betting is wide-open at the time of writing, I Am Max just about holding sway at the head of the market but closely followed by Ballyfort, who has shot up 9lb for a wide-margin win at Ayr.
Harper Valley – one of three in this for Rebecca Menzies – is another last-time-out winner required to defy the assessor (5lb) but it's got to be worth underlining the fact that Ross Chapman, who has ridden Harper Valley all season including for the Musselburgh victory last month, has instead opted for IMPERIAL DATA.
In contrast to the others already mentioned in this, Imperial Data is creeping the other way in the handicap, having been dropped 3lb for his two low-key runs since a belated return to action a month ago.
He spent the previous winter on the sidelines too before resuming in May when he was fifth at Hexham before winning at Cartmel and returning to Hexham to post a slightly unlucky neck second (hung left late on) back at Hexham the following month.
Eased to a mark of 118, he’s now just 1lb higher than for that runner-up effort and it might just be the case that he’s taken a bit longer to come to hand this spring.
Ground conditions do appear to have come right now, though, and returning to a longer trip, back on a left-handed track, could really spark something. In fact, he’s one from one at Kelso having won his maiden hurdle here in September 2023 (good going) and this decent prize may well have been the 2025 end-game all along.
Published at 1600 GMT on 21/03/25
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