Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet column ended over 130pts in profit through 2024 - don't miss the first preview of the New Year.
Value Bet tips: New Year's Day
1pt win Midnight River in 2.05 Cheltenham at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Indian Louis in 2.20 Musselburgh at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Team Skelton to start year in style
Dan and Harry Skelton look the pair to follow once again as Cheltenham returns to our screens on New Year’s Day and they could be celebrating a Grade 2 victory in the Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle if the real Langer Dan shows up.
I appreciate that’s a fairly sizeable if but he’s the form horse in the race, loves it around Prestbury Park and should come on for the comeback run late last month, all of which makes him a tempting bet as the fourth most likely winner according to the market.
Catch Him Derry can’t realistically be recommended as a safe betting proposition in the Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle either but something was clearly wrong with him when fancied at Haydock last time and punters who are willing to put a line through that no-show on heavy ground are getting quite well compensated here.
He’d looked on a massive upward trajectory prior to the last run and it’s encouraging to see him back after just a month or so after an effort that was simply too bad to be true.
On the subject of giving horses another chance, I’ve no issues with staying loyal to the Skelton-trained/ridden MIDNIGHT RIVER in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase, the race he won a couple of years ago at the start of 2023.
The writing was on the wall for his backers, to some extent, after taking a walk in the market ahead of the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury – no doubt in part due to Harry preferring to ride Galia Des Liteaux and the ground getting a bit too lively. He was eventually tailed off after never really getting into contention under James Bowen, not helped by several fiddly errors at the open ditches in particular.
In hindsight, Midnight River ran a lot more encouragingly than his finishing position suggests, still seemingly going OK in around eighth place before the third-last fence. He didn’t see it out from that point, but it was only his second run back after a layoff and, knowing how good the yard is at targeting certain handicap prizes, perhaps a return to Cheltenham for the third start of the year was always plan-A.
The assessor has played ball, easing him 5lb now for the two defeats this season, and he’s able to get in here off 148, which is 3lb lower than when bolting up from Bowtogreatness at Aintree in April 2023.
Skelton is back on board, with the first-time cheekpieces tried at Newbury immediately discarded, and the forecast rain will only help this horse’s claims so I suggest we snap up the 10s as I can see that price only going one way on this occasion.
Louis could be hard to peg back
There are a couple of races from Musselburgh on the ITV programme too including the Virgin Bet Auld Reekie Handicap Chase.
The early market leader Corrigeen Rock (easy enough to back through Tuesday) has likely been teed up for this as he ended last season with a course-and-distance success in February, although not being dropped for getting thrashed by Gemirande at Ascot last month doesn’t help his cause and he looks plenty high enough running off 144 currently.
With Beau Balko and Boomslang having their fifth starts of the season already, it could be worth casting the net a bit and the one who looks potentially over-priced is Corrigeen Rock’s Lucinda Russell’s stablemate INDIAN LOUIS.
The glaring issue with him is that he’s competing from 8lb out of the weights, meaning he’s effectively running off 118 which is 11lb higher than when beaten at Carlisle in late-October. He also wouldn’t want too much more rain.
It’s not a great start when it comes to making a case for a horse, admittedly, but he did look a shade unlucky when mugged late on by The Flier Begley in Cumbria last time, having dotted up off a mark of 100 on his return from a summer break at Perth the previous month.
For a horse with a bit of a patchy record – over hurdles and fences – throughout last year, it’s also encouraging to see he’s now put the two good runs together and it could be that he’s only just beginning to reach full maturity as a six-turned-seven-year-old.
As a confirmed front-runner, getting back into a small field again (15 took part at Carlisle) around a sharp track like this looks tailor-made, indeed he made all over the same course and distance when winning the novices’ handicap chase on the same New Year’s Day card 12 months ago.
That’s his only previous visit so a return was presumably always on the agenda at some point and the booking of Alan Doyle claiming 5lb is obviously in light of the fact the horse is so far wrong at the weights.
Doyle is only 6-40 (15%) at Musselburgh but he must have out-performed on a couple of outsiders as backing all of his rides at the track would have produced a tidy level-stakes profit of +24.58, and I’ve a suspicion he might be able to fare a good deal better than the market might suggest on Wednesday too, especially as it’s such a good-draining venue and never gets that testing underfoot anyway.
Published at 1600 GMT on 31/12/24
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