Matt Brocklebank is taking on the market leaders with a 33/1 chance for the 2021 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Racing betting tips: Cheltenham Festival antepost
1pt win Ganapathi in Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 33/1
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Willie Mullins has won the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle six times and looks in a fantastic position to make that seven on March 16.
Not only does he have general 5/2 market leader Appreciate It, but also a couple of really interesting back-up candidates including Blue Lord, who shaped like a drop in distance would see him in a much better light when second behind the seemingly Ballymore-bound Bob Olinger in the Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle in mid-January.
There’s nobody better at chopping and changing trips when it comes to novice hurdlers than Ireland’s champion trainer and it will be fascinating to see how those key runners fare if going head-to-head in the Grade One Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle over the minimum at the Dublin Racing Festival a week on Sunday.
Appreciate It, so close to winning the Champion Bumper last year and devastatingly impressive at Leopardstown over Christmas, is going to be a short price to double up if heading back there, but anything but a resounding success will result in him being uneasy - at best - in the Supreme market.
Blue Lord shouldn't be underestimated on the back of his Grade One second and could really announce himself as a leading horse in the two-mile division, which would make the current 20/1 for Cheltenham look good value.
However, at an even bigger price I’m drawn to the claims of the Mullins-trained GANAPATHI (33/1 Ladbrokes, Coral) in the silks of Marie and Joe Donnelly.
It seems unlikely he’ll turn out again quickly and reappear at Leopardstown but it wouldn’t be a surprise if his trainer finds another race for him before mid-March as he still looked well short of the finished article when second to Dreal Deal in the Grade Two Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle.
Perhaps the Paddy Power-backed Grade Two at Naas on February 28 will come into the reckoning now. It's a race won by subsequent Supreme hero Go Native en route in 2009, while Labaik took part (effectively refused to jump off) in 2017 before he caused a surprise at Cheltenham.
The Mullins-trained Felix Yonger won it in 2012 before going on to be second behind Simonsig in the Ballymore so the trainer evidently doesn't mind using the race as a stepping-stone, despite its proximity to the big one.
Experienced novices are often overlooked as being exposed but, as we’ve seen in the chasing ranks with Royale Pagaille lately, it’s rarely a bad thing to have runs on the board once the penny begins to drop and Dreal Deal definitely put his knowhow to good use in the closing stages against Ganapathi at Punchestown.
The winner – who was, admittedly, conceding 2lb to the second – ultimately looked like he won really well but Cork maiden winner Ganapathi, who only had one outing on the Flat for previous connections in France, was far from disgraced in defeat.
The Moscow Flyer has a good record in producing leading Supreme candidates, the Mullins-trained Vautour and Douvan doing the double in 2014 and 2015 respectively, and last year’s second Captain Guinness, who like Ganapathi was also stepping up from maiden company, was in the process of running a massive race before being brought down in the Festival opener.
The reaction by a couple of firms to push this season’s runner-up right out to 33/1 looks premature, and while the 20/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power who both offer NRNB is perfectly reasonable, I don’t see much issue in terms of race target.
The Donnellys ended up being doubly-represented in the Supreme last year after Asterion Forlonge won well over two miles at the DRF in February, but their Gaillard Du Mesnil (Mullins) is set to run over further at Leopardstown and looks far more likely to tackle the Ballymore, while Lecale’s Article (Nicky Henderson) in the same ownership hasn't even been entered in the Supreme.
In addition, it certainly wasn’t a lack of pace that cost Ganapathi victory the other week. If anything, it was Dreal Deal’s proven stamina (he had struck over 2m6f back in September) that won him the day after Echoes In Rain had set off at a breakneck gallop and, with that experience to draw upon, I’m siding with the runner-up in the rematch around the relatively sharp Old Course at Cheltenham.
Henderson has four Supreme victories on his CV but doesn’t seem to have quite the same ammo this season, especially following the setback for Dusart (another not entered).
Flinteur Sacre is a burgeoning talent but not one you’d be putting much faith in at this point following his 2/5 flop in the Newbury maiden won by My Drogo in November.
There’s a chance those two could meet again in Huntingdon's Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle – a race won by last year’s Supreme hero Shishkin – where Boothill was pencilled in to reappear.
His trainer Harry Fry has had to rule that out and they're likely to wait for the Dovecote at Kempton, while the yard also has Metier in the mix. The Tolworth winner is already no bigger than 7/1 for the Supreme ahead of a shot at the hugely valuable Betfair Hurdle.
Victory there off a mark of 149 would no doubt see him shorten further but that’s about as competitive a race as you could wish to see in the run-up to Cheltenham, and backing him antepost looks dangerous. Especially as Fry has hinted he may need to go up in trip when the ground dries out a bit in the coming months.
Boothill had looked really promising when winning by nine and a half length first time over hurdles at Taunton. Said to have not quite been seeing out his races when beaten twice in three-mile point-to-points, the son of Presenting oozed class when readily landing a Kempton bumper last February and is evidently all speed.
The bumper form has worked out strongly, four subsequent winners (excluding himself) emerging from behind including the 130-rated Bothwell Bridge, who was third to Bravemansgame when last seen, and 135-rated Valleres, who was second to Star Gate in a Grade Two at Sandown.
Boothill trounced the pair of them and could well end up being a bit of a star of the major spring meetings, but he hasn't been missed in the betting (20/1 at best, generally 14s) and the race against time in terms of getting him ready is off-putting.
Published at 1700 GMT on 27/01/21
More Cheltenham Festival previews & tips
Matt is assessing the 2021 Cheltenham Festival markets and will be publishing his antepost previews in the build-up to the big meeting over the coming weeks. Click here or on the image below for the full schedule.
Already advised...
Wednesday January 20
Monday November 16
Wednesday November 25
Wednesday December 9
Wednesday December 16
- 1.5pt win Ronald Pump in Stayers’ Hurdle at 20/1 & 0.5pts win Honest Vic in Stayers’ Hurdle at 100/1
Wednesday December 23
Wednesday January 6
Wednesday January 13
