Free racing tips: Rory Delargy's bets for Monday at Ayr

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Jelski in 1.10 Ayr at 16/1 (1,2,3) (minimum 0.5pts e.w. @ 9/1)

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Heavy ground will make Onohu popular in this contest, with Tom Lacey’s gelding confined to such a surface so far, and improving pretty much with every start - his latest a win in a 2m novice event here where he had plenty in hand. He’s almost certain to progress further, and if there were no odds to sway me, he’d be the obvious choice given his profile.

Of course, one of the benefits of having rascally bookmakers is that we don’t simply have to blind back the horse we think most likely to win, and my own view is that backing handicap debutants at 6/4 is a damned tricky game to play successfully. On the contrary, his price and the field size means that the race has an appealing shape for each-way betting, and you don’t have to lay the favourite to find some value in the contest.

Rio Quinto handles the mud, but he has been off the track for a long time, looked awkward as a novice over hurdles, and was beaten at odds-on both times he tackled ground this soft, with subsequent improvement coming when switched to fences. He was tailed off on his only run after a similar absence. River Frost has won here on heavy, but four of his five wins over jumps have come on much quicker ground, most recently on good to firm at Sedgefield.

Kalaharry revels in the mud, but makes his seasonal debut, and his lifetime record without a recent run reads 79FP70, while Lily’s Gem appeared to run well when beating Penny Mallow in a mares’ novice at Carlisle last season. However, such races are notoriously unreliable, and both of them bombed out badly next time, and the form is dubious in retrospect. Ted Veale was much the best of these many moons ago, but might not get to the start if he’s been to collect his pension first, leaving Jelski, Bialco and Baby Ticker as the three who look value when the race is dissected.

The one who appeals most is Jelski, who needed the run when making his debut for the underrated Jimmy Moffatt at Carlisle last month. The Jimmy Moffatt/Charlotte Jones combination over hurdles has been an excellent one to follow over jumps when the formbook gives them a chance, and the pair have produced form figures of 133412124112 with horses sent off shorter than 8/1 in the past couple of seasons, which is not to be sniffed at. No Hiding Place was a recent 22/1 success for trainer and jockey, and anyone watching that race would be in no doubt that the excellent returns have nothing to do with chance and everything to do with a smart trainer trusting a talented young jockey to do what is needed depending on the situation.

Jelski is lightly raced, and has won both starts on heavy ground, and while he’s struggled a little since sent handicapping, he has dropped 8lb from his opening mark in a short time, and should not be the rank outsider in this field.

Posted at 1800 GMT on 13/12/20

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