Leading tipster Rory Delargy was amongst the winners last week and he's back on Monday with a couple of bets at big prices.
Recommended Bets, October 12
1pt win Three Saints Bay in 2.30 Musselburgh at 14/1 (11/1 minimum)
1pt win Capla Crusader in 8.30 Wolverhampton at 25/1 (18/1 minimum)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Weighted To Win: Three Saints Bay 2:30 Musselburgh
David O’Meara proved the wellbeing of his string with 40/1 and 20/1 winners at York in recent days, so I think it’s worth backing Three Saints Bay in the On Board Scotland's Concorde Handicap. Two of the last three winners of this race are back and looking to regain former glory, but the selection is well handicapped on his 2019 efforts, and has had excuses for recent disappointments. He’s 13lb below the mark off which he was third in this race 12 months ago (when failing by three-parts of a length to concede 13lb to runner-up Montatham), and his best effort this year came when a very close third to Gabrial The Wire and Muntadab over C&D in June, for which he is 3lb better off with the runner-up.
The rain predicted for tomorrow will be to his advantage given this fixture was run on heavy 12 months ago, and while he’s inconsistent, it’s only a matter of time before he converts an opportunity from his tumbling mark.
In From The Cold? Swissal 7.30 Wolverhampton
Trainer John O’Shea has not had a winner in 2020, but Swissal must give him a good chance of getting off the cold list her. O’Shea hasn’t had Swissal all that long, having picked the horse up from David Dennis in June, but he’s given signs on his last couple of starts that he might be on the way back to form, and that, coupled with the step back up to 7f (last two wins at the trip) make him look interesting here, as does the return to Wolverhampton, where his record stands at 223.
Cindy Looper and Al Mansoura should ensure there’s a solid pace on, and there are question marks over the other pair with historical form claims, with Bint Dandy returning from eight months off (all 11 of her wins have come within 6 weeks of a previous run) and Pour La Victoire badly below form on his last two starts, without his usual headgear, and again going bare-headed here.
Swapping Headgear: Capla Crusader 8.30 Wolverhampton
There’s a distinct lack of obvious early pace here and that provides an opportunity for one to control things from the front if taking the bull by the horns. The improving 3-y-o’s A’Shamardi (a third change of headgear in three starts) and The Cincinatti Kid are both possibles for the role, but at a bigger price, and in a first-time visor, Capla Crusader is worth a second look.
A winner of a novice auction race at Kempton around this time last year, he shaped perfectly well on his first run back there, taken back from a low draw and racing wide, but holding every chance at the furlong pole and only beaten two lengths in a race which has proven reliable for the level. That was a career-best effort with blinkers on for the first time, and the problem was his stiff handicap mark of 76. He has run to a fair level in two starts since, albeit fading late last time without headgear after a lengthy break, and that has seen him drop to a realistic mark of 69.
That last run had the look of a sighter to me, and it’s encouraging that Nick Littmoden retains Hollie Doyle again, while adding a visor now. Capla Crusader is effective on the surface having been beaten just a length on his first visit here when with Mark Johnston, and he was also runner-up to a rival now rated 82 in a Newcastle maiden, and if sharpened up by a visor, he should be placed to advantage given the relative running styles on offer. The 3-y-o’s from fashionable yards will dominate the market, and he is a value price as a result.
Posted at 1745 on 11/10/20
Recent winners at advised prices...
Kraka - 17/2
Geography Teacher - 10/1
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