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Mike Cattermole previews the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe from Chantilly
Will Enable make history on Sunday or suffer a fate similar to Salsabil? Top broadcaster Mike Cattermole previews the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
ENABLE SHOULD MAKE HISTORY
The outstanding filly Enable is fancied to make history in Sunday’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly. She can give Frankie Dettori a record fifth success but also become the first three-year-old filly from Britain (or Ireland) to win Europe’s most prestigious flat race.
Yes, it’s quite a sobering thought isn’t it? When you pause to remember all of the great fillies from these shores who have crossed the Channel before, all carrying big expectations only to fall short. Names such as Sun Princess, Diminuendo, Salsabil, User Friendly, Ouija Board and Taghrooda.
Salsabil in particular was one I found hard to accept. She had won the 1,000 Guineas and Oaks and then beaten the colts in the Irish Derby before having a break and then coming back to land the Prix Vermeille. It had looked like the perfect Arc prep but she never fired, presumably over the top, and trailed home in 10th behind Saumarez.
Although it was just her sixth race of the season, John Dunlop’s filly had started at Newbury six months previously.
Enable also reappeared at the same Newbury April meeting, but will be lining up for the seventh time. She has won her four Group One races by an astonishing aggregate of 20 lengths and certainly has the best form in the book. She also has a nice draw on the inside to allow Frankie Dettori freedom to ride his race, assuming she starts well.
Her four-and-a-half-length thrashing of Ulysses in the King George (officially good to soft but probably much more like soft) looks almost too good to be true when you consider what Sir Michael Stoute’s colt did either side of that in the Eclipse and the Juddmonte.
But she really could be exceptional and a convincing Arc win would propel her to legendary status. John Gosden is entrusted with the task of not letting a busy season catch up with her.
But Sunday’s showpiece could turn into a real slog with heavy rain predicted to last throughout the day. The ground is good to soft at the time of writing.
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Although Ulysses is by two Epsom Classic winners in Galileo and Light Shift, the strong suspicion is that he may be better at around a mile and a quarter anyway. He also has to be held up and that won’t be easy from his inside draw. But why is Sir Michael Stoute happy to take on Enable again? Interesting question.
The brilliant Winter tries the trip for the first time but I can understand why Ryan Moore has decided to go with her as she possesses so much natural class that could up there in Enable’s league. Moore clearly feels that the other Aidan O’Brien challengers may fall short on the talent front.
Winter’s homework has clearly been pleasing since her disappointing second in the Matron Stakes when she was in need of the run after a setback. But although she won the Nassau over 10f in soft, this is a much stiffer test and her dam’s side of the family has so much speed.
So, with the emphasis likely to be on stamina, Ryan may regret passing over Order Of St George who surely has to come into the reckoning as a standout each-way bet.
He showed that he lives in this sort of class with a brilliant third behind Found on good ground in last year’s race on this track. His most recent nine-length Irish Leger win showed him to be every bit as good as ever and on soft ground his form figures read 1111, adding up to an impressive aggregate of 28 lengths.
Should the ground turn to heavy, it would be an unknown for him as he has yet to race on it but it is hard to imagine him failing on that score.
Capri is an interesting contender too and has won on heavy ground before. He is tough, a dual Classic winner and his St Leger win was gained after being off the track for over two months so he should be relatively fresh.
He has also beaten two high-class colts in Cracksman and Crystal Ocean on his last two starts but he is draw rather wider than ideal.
The German-trained Dschingis Secret has improved hugely lately and should get his ideal conditions. He beat Cloth Of Stars in the Prix Foy quite readily but the value has been taken.
Indeed, it doesn’t make much sense that he is around a 12/1 shot with Sky Bet and the runner-up Cloth Of Stars is 33/1. Cloth Of Stars didn’t get the best of runs there and it was also his first start after a four-month lay-off.
Given that this fellow mud-lover is trained by seven-time Arc winner Andre Fabre – who looks to have given him a traditional prep - he surely stands out as the value each-way bet of the race.
What about the rest of the home team?
Brametot stands out as a dual Classic winner having landed the French Guineas at Deauville and the French Derby here at Chantilly (good to soft) when he came late as usual to deliver that brilliant turn of foot. He goes up to a mile and a half for the first time but can’t afford another slow start at this level.
He couldn’t recover from it last time but was said to have finished lame. He is also drawn low and, like Ulysses, will need luck in running.
So, Enable can do it with Order Of St George and Cloth Of Stars chasing her home.
AIDAN HAPPILY MIXING HIS TEAM
Aidan O’Brien is still chasing down Bobby Frankel’s 25 Group Ones and looks certain to come home with at least one success at the top level on Sunday.
The fact that he is sending Happily to take on the colts in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere could be an inspired move. Conqueror of stablemate Magical in the Moyglare last time, her form is superior to anything else in the field and she gets the 4lb fillies allowance.
Magical will be putting the form to the test half an hour earlier in the Prix Marcel Boussac. She takes on the brilliant Freddie Head-trained filly Polydream who comfortably beat Laurens at Deauville last time.
I would be disappointed if Polydream didn’t take this, as she looks something very special.
O’Brien later saddles both Hydrangea and Rhododendron in the Prix de l’Opera with the latter trying to pick up the pieces in an unfulfilled season.
However, the mud will be flying around by then and that will suit Lacazar, easy winner of the German Oaks. Her trainer, Peter Schiergen, won the Arc itself a few years ago with the brilliant Danedream.