Racing betting tips
1pt e.w. Bob Mahler in Coral Scottish Grand National at 50/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
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BOB MAHLER isn’t the most straightforward horse in training but he’s a talented, strong stayer on his day and looks worth a bet at 50s for the Coral Scottish Grand National prior to Thursday's outing at Ffos Las.
Ayr's marathon event has a field size limit of 30 so it’s not too concerning he's quite so far down the pecking order (42 on the list) as things stand, though with the weights published today he'll pick up a 5lb penalty and guarantee a spot in the line-up if things go to plan in the West Wales National this week.
Bob Mahler has failed to complete the course in four of his last five racecourse appearances, which isn’t exactly the most inspiring comment when it comes to building a case for him potentially landing a big-race double this spring, but his last 10 completed outings have produced really positive form figures of 2301132133.
So we’re dealing with a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde character, that much is clear, but he’s also a well-handicapped horse again now having slipped to a mark of 135, the same rating from which he won the 2020 Edinburgh National (4m1f).
After Musselburgh he went to Cheltenham for the Kim Muir and put up another fine performance when a staying-on third to Milan Native from 140 - the exact mark from which he'll effectively be competing at Ayr should he win at Ffos Las.
In fact, most of the peak performances throughout his career have come after the turn of the year so perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into his three pulled-up flops earlier this season, especially given the saddle slipped in a couple of those races at Haydock and Kelso.
He underwent a breathing operation in the midst of those three runs, too, before showing a bit more spark when third in his Edinburgh National repeat bid. The ground was horrible that day and much too soft for the horse (see Greatrex line below), while another attempt at the Kim Muir this month looked to be going a similar way to last March before he was brought down by the stricken Plan Of Attack three from home.
If the real Bob Mahler turns up at Ayr – a course at which he was a neck second in a handicap hurdle on his only previous visit three seasons ago – then he’s weighted to be in the mix and it’s hoped he has the set-up to execute aggressive tactics as this race has often favoured prominent racers down the years.
Elsewhere, Alan King's Canelo - a 33/1 shot with Unibet but 22s generally - looks to have been kept back for something this spring and I'm far from convinced his Grimthorpe third proves he's now in the grip of the handicapper.
Perhaps Aintree is plan A but he'd be of significant interest if heading north of the border, while Paul Nicholls has a strong squad to choose from and Soldier Of Love is on a fair mark based on his staying-on, seven-length second to warm Ayr favourite Galvin at Cheltenham in October.
He hated the ground when thrashed by The Big Breakaway the following month but could get his conditions here, and if not then he's one to consider for the final throw of the dice at Sandown at the end of April (bet365 Gold Cup).
Any significant rain around would bring horses like The Dutchman (33/1) into play as he isn't on a bad mark (143) these days and was still going pretty well before unseating Sean Quinlan in the Eider Chase.
Published at 1300 BST on 31/03/21
Trainer Warren Greatrex on Bob Bahler (29/03/21):
"He’s come out of Cheltenham well and it was frustrating, he just got knocked over (brought down) three out and I do think he had a chance of being placed again.
"He was only just starting to get going but he’s fine and well. If it's not the Scottish National (after Ffos Las) then it might be the bet365 at Sandown – he’ll get an entry in that as well this week.
"The better the ground, the better his chance."
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