Racing UK presenter and Sporting Life columnist Lydia Hislop recaps the road to the Investec Derby, before providing her 1-2-3 for the Epsom Classic.
Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown
- Distance: 1m2f
- Grade: Group 3
- Going: Heavy
- Date: 14/04/18
- Free video replay
Only four runners were prepared to showcase their Derby credentials in desperately heavy ground, three of them trained by Aidan O’Brien. Ryan Moore partnered beaten favourite The Pentagon, who fared worst of the Ballydoyle trio.
He’d shaped like a Derby prospect as a juvenile, when third behind Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion in the Racing Post Trophy. This season’s campaign has been identifiably Epsom-oriented – except that he just hasn’t yet managed to live up to those trappings.
Here in single-file formation, he sat too far off a steady pace set by stablemate Nelson and although he crept closer approaching the home turn, he was soon in trouble in the straight. Instead, with a doughty head carriage, Nelson saw off the more proximate challenge of Delano Roosevelt to win by half a length.
The runner-up was better positioned than the third but still had to play to the winner’s fractions and he may also have found the ground draining his finishing effort on his seasonal debut – or perhaps just his stamina, full stop. However, not for the first time, there was also the whiff of a horse happier following a leader than being one.
These early skirmishes are frequently not a literal indicator of the ultimate Ballydoyle batting order come the first Saturday in June, however.
Fielden Stakes at Newmarket
- Distance: 1m1f
- Grade: Listed
- Going: Good-to-soft
- Date: 17/04/18
- Free video replay
Fellow Ballydoyle soldier Kew Gardens returned to the scene of his all-the-way Zetland Stakes triumph, over a furlong shorter and carrying a 3lb penalty for his trouble, with a rusty display in third. It was left to Mildenberger to run down front-running Fortune’s Pearl after a strenuous final-furlong hunt.
The charitable viewed the favourite’s defeat as a typical first assignment in an O’Brien-orchestrated campaign that would perhaps culminate in the St Leger rather than necessarily the Derby.
Craven Stakes at Newmarket
- Distance: 1m
- Grade: Group 3
- Going: Good
- Date: 19/04/18
- Free video replay
After slaloming left and right in last October’s Racing Post Trophy, conceding the spoils to the more straightforward Saxon Warrior, Roaring Lion was a much-debated odds-on favourite here. Anticipation of another quirky display was wide of the mark; rather, he was merely dull.
Bouncing back from an unhappy session on the Dubaian dirt in early March, it was instead Masar who galloped away with this Group 3 – a performance that, paired with the sustained early-season wellbeing of the Charlie Appleby yard, would eventually propel him to favouritism in the 2000 Guineas.
Although it was a small field and Masar was never headed after taking on front-running duties, there was no flattery involved. The clock would testify to strong closing sectionals when William Buick decided to get the job done from three furlongs out.
Oisin Murphy tried to cover the move with Roaring Lion but his mount was in trouble almost immediately and cracked more than a furlong out, even losing second near the line. His connections would later regroup and speak of his burly paddock appearance, their disappointment palpable. He was certainly sleepy beforehand and tame during the race.
💷Five ante-post 2018 specials
— Sporting Life (@SportingLife) January 1, 2018
🏇Masar to win the Derby (33/1)
🏇Contingent to win the Oaks (25/1)
⛳️Patrick Reed to win US Open (80/1)
⚽️Luis Suarez to be top World Cup goalscorer (28/1)
🎾Lucas Pouille to be ranked in the top eight (8/1)https://t.co/QX1bFXewez
Blue Riband Trial at Epsom
- Distance: 1m2f
- Grade: Listed
- Going: Good
- Date: 25/04/18
- Free video replay
Crossed Baton took on the role of chief coordinator here, soon taking up the lead and controlling the race from the front. My Lord And Master sat closest to him from start to finish, without ever quite getting past. Horses given more patient rides were left too far out of their ground when the pace quickened.
Dee Ex Bee belonged to that group. Having raced in mid-division and handled the track well on ground softer than the official description, he was the only challenger to significantly alter his position relative to the winner by the line. As a likely thorough stayer, this was a promising start to his season.
The lesser fancied of the O’Brien-trained duo and therefore (or also) Moore-less, Zabriskie was relatively well positioned shadowing the winner on the rail in third. He faded in the straight, no doubt needing his first outing, as is the modern way with many of the Ballydoyle massive, but there was little evident promise for Derby ambitions.
Classic Trial at Sandown
- Distance: 1m2f
- Grade: Group 3
- Going: Good-to-soft
- Date: 27/04/18
- Free video replay
Having got off the mark in emphatic fashion with a 14-length maiden success at Windsor on his seasonal debut (after an operation to correct his breathing over the winter), Sevenna Star was a horse in need of some proper racing experience. So John Gosden and Frankie Dettori created some here.
Asked on this occasion to sit in mid-division and learn some race-craft, Sevenna Star was not as advantageously positioned as either Godolphin’s Ispolini or recent Group 3 winner Chilean, but he still managed to wear them down for educative handling to triumph by a short-head.
It left the impression he would beat those rivals more comfortably should they ever meet again – with the possible exception of third-placed Hunting Horn, who was positioned even further back and found his passage checked in the straight.
Sandown’s long, rising straight, on ground with some ease to it, looked to be of great benefit to Sevenna Star, described afterwards by Dettori as "big and heavy" as well as "a bit sleepy mentally". Epsom’s recent heavy rain has helped his Derby cause but 16/1 for the St Leger is a more tempting prospect.
2000 Guineas at Newmarket
- Distance: 1m
- Grade: Group 1
- Going: Good-to-firm
- Date: 05/05/18
- Free video replay
Saxon Warrior moved through the Guineas like comfortably the best horse in the race. He’ll need to be if his billing as short-priced Derby favourite and Triple Crown contender is to be justified because the form has taken a few punches since, notably when both Elarqam and Gustav Klimt made no greater impact in the Irish version last weekend.
Such collateral detail may impact little on Saxon Warrior’s intrinsic worth. He travelled smoothly, handled Newmarket’s tricky Dip with good balance and showed a positive attitude for light pressure.
Both his paddock appearance and a little late wandering suggested O’Brien had reason to observe that this horse has "an awful lot of improvement in him". Yet to my mind, there’s a three-fold doubt about Saxon Warrior for the Derby – especially at around Evens.
First, despite the Ballydoyle yak about the Triple Crown, his pedigree (and run style) would give you confidence for ten furlongs but only hope of something more. Donnacha O’Brien, his classic-winning rider, gave that same off-message view after the Guineas.
Clearly, his father has the ammunition to gauge when the time is right to try to follow in the footsteps of Nijinsky and I heartily hope he nails this ambition one day, but it may not be this year – particularly as, second, soft ground will ask an even larger question of Saxon Warrior’s stamina.
The third blow was drawing stall one. You can get a statistical snapshot of the 21st century impact of the Derby draw from Simon Rowlands’ Timeform article. Suffice to say, it’s not an advantage. For these reasons, I’m out.
If Saxon Warrior didn’t hail from the stamina-rich plains of Ballydoyle, on paper I’d give Masar the marginally better chance of staying the Derby trip. As it is, the main problem for Godolphin’s representative is the Guineas winner appears to outpoint him on all fronts.
Yes, he was a shade disadvantaged at Newmarket as a result of the race developing down the centre of the track and not adjacent to his stands-rail draw. But the best that might have happened was second place.
Meanwhile, Roaring Lion improved on his Craven effort – no pun intended – back in fifth. He, too, raced among the unfavoured stands-side trio but yet again he hung, this time solely to his left until the stands’ rail forced him to straighten up and stay on strongly for the rising ground of the final furlong. The need for a longer trip, rather than a lobotomy, would have made for a happier post-race discussion.
🏇🏻 There’s an extra sprinkling of magic dust over Saturday’s Investec Derby, with favourite Saxon Warrior bang on course for the Triple Crown. @MattBrocklebank looks at what’s facing the son of Deep Impact. pic.twitter.com/8aBQpWMVPH
— Sporting Life (@SportingLife) May 28, 2018
Chester Vase
- Distance: 1m4f63y
- Grade: Group 3
- Going: Good
- Date: 09/05/18
- Free video replay
William Haggas spoke afterwards of getting the experience of two races for the scheduling of one by running the raw Young Rascal in the Chester Vase. It’s easy to see what he meant.
Clueless for much of his sole start as a two-year-old, Young Rascal still looked green when running in snatches in the early stages of his Newbury seasonal debut until James Doyle angled him to the outside for galloping room in the straight and was evidently riding the winner thereafter.
At Chester, he was still learning on the job but had clearly assimilated his lessons to date. He wasn’t quick or experienced enough to attain a prominent position from the stalls but raced happily in close quarters with his rivals – a huge positive for Epsom – and proved malleable enough to get himself out of a pocket quickly in the straight.
He’d also mostly travelled better until that stage and was tough enough to both hold his ground and unleash his challenge when leaned on by Dee Ex Bee. He needed only a light reminder from Doyle to settle the business and was well on top on the line, despite the runner-up continuing to roll home strongly.
Both horses were comfortably superior to Hunting Horn and Ispolini in third and fourth respectively, ceding this contest greater weight than Sandown’s Classic Trial.
The winner strikes me as likely to improve again for this experience and the recent rain at Epsom has removed the one lingering doubt about the round-actioned Young Rascal’s ability to handle that track’s downhill section on a sound surface.
Though inexperienced, his temperament held fast for the razzmatazz of Chester where, like Epsom but unlike many courses, there are nearby crowds on both sides of the track. In short, he’s a highly attractive 8/1 shot.
As hinted at Epsom, Dee Ex Bee produced an improved performance here. He’s all about stamina, was out-manoeuvred by the winner and shaped as though targets such as the Geoffrey Freer or St Leger, at galloping tracks, would be ideal future options.
If he’s going to make an impact in the Derby, Silvestre De Sousa will surely have to take him to the fore from stall six. This horse has made the running twice before and connections surely wouldn’t wish to find themselves playing to a tempo set by Ballydoyle.
Derby Trial at Lingfield
- Distance: 1m3f
- Grade: Listed
- Going: Good-to-firm
- Date: 12/05/18
- Free video replay
Once again, the market expected more than it received from Kew Gardens. Granted, it was a better performance than his seasonal debut and he was trapped in a pocket when Knight To Behold got loose on an unassailable lead, but he was ultimately second best on merit.
Like The Pentagon, Kew Gardens should improve for Epsom’s stamina test and, unlike that stable companion, he has made the running in the past. Were it not for the pace complications posed by the presence of Saxon Warrior, he would be a candidate for setting a good pace from stall 12, in the hands of Donnacha O’Brien.
At Lingfield, he made limited inroads on Knight To Behold in the straight, but pulled seven lengths clear of the rest. The winner was making his seasonal debut following a lightly raced but highly promising two-year-old campaign.
He was overtly fresh for his return to action and Richard Kingscote soon made the sensible decision to let him roll, so much so that he ran a tad wide while careering round the downhill bend and had pulled about seven lengths clear entering the straight. Bred to stay at least 12 furlongs, he was never going to tie up for all his early freshness.
Knight To Behold is a likeable horse who’s bred for the job and very much merits his place in this line-up. His dam’s brother Let The Lion Roar finished third in the 2004 Derby and her half-brother Millenary won the 2000 St Leger. Both were trained by John Dunlop, whose son Harry trains this horse.
The rain detracts from his chances however, as both sides of his pedigree display a leaning towards fast ground and he is untried on anything else – although it rained at Lingfield, the going was no worse than good. Stall two is not a positive either, especially if Knight To Behold is again keen on pulling himself to the front during those steep initial furlongs.
If he can take a prominent position with minimal exertion, however, Kingscote is as unlikely as De Sousa to settle for any Ballydoyle-inspired dampening of the pace. Both jockeys are excellent proponents of front-running techniques and both are riding thorough stayers.
Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown
- Distance: 1m2f
- Grade: Group 3
- Going: Good
- Date: 13/05/18
- Free video replay
Another Leopardstown Derby Trial, another crawl of a race – albeit at least this time, it was not on bottomless ground. Nelson was dispatched to head the Ballydoyle fleet and set tepid fractions, to the detriment of closely attending stablemate The Pentagon.
Even hanging onto the leader’s heels was not sufficient positional advantage for the yet-again favourite and mount of Seamie Heffernan. Driven into a narrow lead over a furlong out, The Pentagon was outpaced by Hazapour and picked off for second on the nod at the line by Delano Roosevelt.
Given the searching stamina test that a strongly run Derby can present, heightened by cut in the ground, it would not be surprising were The Pentagon to out-run odds of around 25/1.
In fact, from stall 11, it would greatly aid his individual cause to be ridden forward at a solid pace (albeit he has never yet made the running in his career). But the stamina doubts (mine, at least) for favoured stablemate Saxon Warrior may well prevent that option in actuality; should Wayne Lordan take him to the front, a good pace would not be guaranteed.
Hazapour demonstrated handy tactical speed and a positive outlook under pressure to win this trial. The dam’s side of his pedigree – one of owner-breeder the Aga Khan’s lovely stamina-infused families – is seductive for the task at hand. Just two years ago, Dermot Weld also won the Derby with Hazapour’s uncle, Harzand.
However, the Shamardal side of his breeding equation raises doubts about both stamina and the suitability of soft ground. He’s an improving colt, though – even if 8/1 seems rather short considering his achievements to date.
Hazapour got first run in the straight over second-placed Delano Roosevelt and showed more instant alacrity in doing so. The runner-up even had race fitness on his side and also wouldn’t be a shoo-in to improve for a step up in trip. Given the absence of headgear on Saturday to allay my application fears, he’s one of the two least attractive propositions among this year’s five-strong Ballydoyle battalion.
Dante Stakes at York
- Distance: 1m2f56y
- Grade: Group 2
- Going: Good-to-firm
- Date: 17/05/18
- Free video replay
For the first time this season, Roaring Lion displayed the talent that lies within – and he did so while coping with the often-daunting experience of the Knavesmire. This to some extent replicates Epsom in requiring horses to keep their cool while negotiating the hubbub of the crowd, from the calm of the distant stables to the cauldron of the parade ring and back out onto the track.
This race was far from a stamina test, however, with Mildenberger setting a pace too steady for his own good – one that never really got Roaring Lion off the bridle. He needed minimal persuasion to draw clear of his field and conducted himself with greater compliance than for many an outing.
He did hang left when the race was long won and although it’s true that many horses do that in the latter stages of York races, this must be acknowledged as a habit for this horse. That must place him at risk of hanging left down the camber of Epsom’s straight, rolling where the rain will have collected most towards the inside rail.
The weather has also been a negative for Roaring Lion on two further counts: his pedigree says testing ground won’t see him at his optimum and it also accentuates the doubts about his stamina for 12 furlongs. He won the Dante by dint of his speed.
Back in third, Zabriskie did well to carve third place from a disadvantageous position in rear but the trip seemed to max out his stamina. Under last year’s Derby-winning jockey Padraig Beggy, it will be fascinating to discover why he made the Ballydoyle cut for Epsom, given he promises neither to stay nor to be good enough.
Lydia Hislop's Investec Derby 1-2-3
- Young Rascal
- Dee Ex Bee
- Sevenna Star
In conclusion, YOUNG RASCAL is a fast-improving horse with all the necessary attributes for Epsom. A strong fancy. Granted a positive ride, thorough stayer Dee Ex Bee will be hard to kick out of the frame. Expect him and the staying-on Sevenna Star - who may be a shade raw for this race just now - to catch the eye for the St Leger. The worries of trip, ground and draw could combine to push Saxon Warrior out of the frame - I'm certainly not interested, given these concerns, at the price he is. In the conditions, The Pentagon may turn out to be Ballydoyle's best shout after all.
