Lydia Hislop guides us through day three at the Cheltenham Festival and adds to her portfolio, including bets on Terrefort and Tully East.
JLT Novices’ Chase
Invitation Only improved, both in terms of form and technique, for positive tactics so it was a tad surprising that he permitted Monalee to dominate the pace of the Grade One Flogas Chase last time out.
He also made a critical error at the fourth last, just as he was getting into things. There are plenty of candidates for the lead in this event, so his jumping will again be put under pressure.
The mare Shattered Love is one such potential leader, redirected here from the RSA Insurance Chase by owners Gigginstown Stud. She, too, has jumped better for making the running to the extent that she won a Grade One against geldings over Christmas. As here, the 7lb sex allowance is a huge asset.
However, that race rather fell apart in her wake and probably shouldn’t be taken too literally. Stablemate Jury Duty, pulled up in the Festival’s four-miler on Tuesday, followed her home but Monalee fell and brought down NH Chase winner Rathvinden.
TERREFORT likes to be towards the fore but is also comfortable just behind it – and that adaptability should serve him well here. He impressed on the clock at Huntingdon on his UK debut for Nicky Henderson, surprising connections with the calibre of his performance, and then narrowly subdued subsequent Grade Two winner Cyrname in a Sandown Grade One.
He wasn’t set to run here until the snow and rain made the ground so suitable but sets the standard on form. He’s only a five-year-old and no horse that young has yet won the JLT, but there have only been seven editions to date and Bristol De Mai (for the same owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede) finished second in 2016.
Terrefort has only raced right-handed to date in Britain but was previously campaigned at differently oriented tracks in France where evidence of a preference was not conclusive. He jumps very well – a facet that was thoroughly examined under pressure last time out. In short, he seems the most solid player here.
Bigmartre beat Cyrname more readily at Newbury last December but the runner-up was conceding 2lb and is deemed (with evidence to support the assertion) a much better horse racing right-handed; therefore he was more vulnerable there. Bigmartre jumps well but may not be suited to Cheltenham.
Expect Benatar to improve for getting a lead in a strongly run race. He’s a tad shorter than I expected, especially for a horse who appears to have missed intended engagements in February, but he’s a proper threat to Terrefort.
He’s best not judged literally on his narrow beating of Finian’s Oscar at Ascot because a scratchy three-runner affair that unraveled around a non-staying leader and the runner-up’s poor jumping wasn’t designed to flatter.
Finian’s Oscar is enduring a torrid season. He hasn’t taken well to fences, with both his trainer and jockey having suggested he lacks gumption for the task, and was last time switched to hurdles. That outing on heavy going uncovered a breathing issue so he’s had the surgery and, rather than being put away for the season as initially suggested, he runs here with cheekpieces slapped on. No, thanks.
Stablemate West Approach wears first-time blinkers but his form offers ample argument for being out of his depth. Snow Falcon needs further. Willie Mullins’ second string, Kemboy, is likeable – a good jumper, unexposed and who ran well despite inexperience in last year’s Ballymore. He might make it to the podium but must improve. Quirky Modus is also a place player. He’s taken well to fences and wasn’t beaten that far in the Coral Cup last year.
Selections:
Back now: Terrefort at 4/1 with various firms
Ryanair Chase
Paddy Brennan will surely set out with intent on Cue Card after the veteran was greatly enlivened by those tactics in the Ascot Chase last time out. Balko Des Flos might try to attend him, given he improved for stepping up to three miles in the Christmas Chase last time out, but he’ll need to be at his sharpest to match leaps with this top-drawer chaser.
Brennan had to hold onto Cue Card when trying to get him home in the Gold Cup the last twice – don’t mention the third last! – but at this trip he can both give full vent to his mount’s verve and simultaneously exploit the perceived weakness in favourite Un De Sceaux...
…Namely: we know he loves the ground, we know he stays the trip; but does Un De Sceaux stay the trip on this ground? Jockey Ruby Walsh believes he unquestionably will and has been notably bullish about his prospects in this race. It’s conceivable that this belief – and I write this before Day Two has got under way – prompted his desire to keep Douvan (also declared here) in the Queen Mother Champion Chase so he could ride them both.
In this race last year, Un De Sceaux lost patience with the tardy early fractions set by his rivals so Walsh allowed him to pull through the field and then settled him on the pace. He’ll be perfectly happy accepting an aggressive lead from Cue Card, however, and it might even enable the more even expenditure of his energy to eke out his stamina.
His eagerness to get on with the job 12 months ago might well mean I’m placing too much weight on this factor – after all it’s only been soft, not heavy, ground (albeit further rain is forecast) so far – but SUB LIEUTENANT probably gave him too much respect alone on the lead back then.
It’ll be a contested pace, at least at some stage, this time and that could set the race up nicely for Henry de Bromhead’s representative. Admittedly, he seems to have missed an intended engagement in January but that might be no bad thing after getting properly involved in a tough edition of the John Durkan that appeared to bottom Sizing John and Djakadam.
That suggested he’s at least capable of the form he showed last season and, at the outsider of the entire field here, he’s overpriced at 18/1. I’m going to take the two places each-way as some insurance but he could be picking up the pieces fast late on here.
Frodon was flattered when winning here January but Cloudy Dream is also worth considering to place, having failed to stay three miles against Gold Cup hopefuls the last twice. The doubt with him is whether he’s hard enough put his head in front when the tough get going.
Selection:
Back now: Sub Lieutenant at 18/1 BOG each-way (2 places) with Bet365
Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle
The weather has prompted SUPASUNDAE to take a walk in this market – that and the fact both his key opponents this season, Apple’s Jade and Faugheen, were beaten on the first day of the Festival. Yet the case for this column’s long-term ante-post selection does not merely rest on those form-lines.
He won the Coral Cup last year and so is proven at the track; he also chased home Yanworth in Liverpool’s Stayers’ Hurdle last April despite palpably not being at his best (not travelling from an early stage). He’s unexposed at three miles and has the right blend of speed and stamina for this contest.
That Apple’s Jade was below her best on Tuesday does not detract from the calibre of her triumphs earlier in the season and Supasundae was unsuited by making much of his own running when they met.
Trainer Jessica Harrington would undoubtedly have preferred a sounder surface but the due rain should freshen up the ground, making it easier to get through, and Supasundae still holds smart form when the going is deep.
Sam Spinner is the most upwardly mobile horse in the field and, with three of his likely rivals for the pace having been removed from this race at the forfeit stage, there’s a chance jockey Joe Colliver might be able to control matters from the front just as Cole Harden did in 2015.
Yes, his jockey has scant experience of Cheltenham but he had exactly zero knowledge of riding at Ascot when he set the fractions just right to win the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle on this horse. Rain has enhanced his mount’s prospects and he’s the rightful favourite.
Lil Rockerfeller carved out second in this race last year with no fluke about it – in fact, if anything, he was better than the literal form after chasing a strong pace that proved vulnerable to more patiently ridden rivals such as the winner. But years of doughty battling seem to have paled on him of late.
Quirky but capable Yanworth will be played late and that could see him perform to his maximum; he’s an each-way player. Unowhatimeanharry also represents owner JP McManus and, given the recent positive vibes, could return to his best and that would mean at least grabbing a place.
Ruby Walsh has picked Bacardys from Willie Mullins’ quartet. This horse has been switched from chasing straight into a Grade One hurdle and that’s a tough ask, even if stablemate Benie Des Dieux managed it in the OLBG David Nicholson (against fellow mares and with an underperforming favourite).
Bacardys won a Grade One as a novice but needs to take a large step forward. Stablemate Penhill hasn’t been seen since winning the Albert Bartlett last year – again not necessarily an insurmountable task for a Mullins-trained Festival winner – but that was a steadily run, unconvincing race.
Of the yard’s two mares, Augusta Kate makes more appeal as suited to this trip than Let’s Dance. The former made a chance-ending blunder behind Penhill last year; the latter hasn’t been pleasing her trainer, is unproven at the trip and first-time cheekpieces are applied.
Wholestone and Colin’s Sister are honest but not quite good enough. The ground has gone against The Worlds End, who’s yet to prove he’s this smart anyway.
More conservative tactics on The New One might backfire, despite the fact he’s going half a mile further than before. His habit of adjusting right could be tiring after three miles – but then I argued the same about last year’s winner, Nichols Canyon.
Selection:
Already advised 06/12/17: Supasundae 20/1 Stayers’ Hurdle with Bet365 and Paddy Power/Betfair
Already advised 05/01/18: Apple’s Jade 100/30 NRNB
Trull House Stud Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Laurina has looked very smart twice now for Willie Mullins, clocking a good time at Tramore and then winning a Fairyhouse Grade Three. She’s a worthy short-priced favourite but – truth be known – I’m still kicking myself for declining 12/1 after her first Irish start and so can’t stomach odds-on.
Willie Mullins has won both editions of this race to date, not to mention nine of the 11 editions of the David Nicholson, so his mares are not to be trifled with. That said, it’s hard to make a logical case for Pietralunga and (on her debut for the yard) Salseretta.
MARIA'S BENEFIT has looked almost as good as Laurina on this side of the Irish Sea this season. Her recent setback (heat in her knee after her underwhelming Doncaster win) is a worry but trainer Stuart Edmonds insists she didn’t miss any work.
Her hardened profile – six hurdle races, five wins – will stand her in good stead in these conditions and she’s overpriced on form.
Countister inherited her Sandown success after Ainchea’s last-hurdle fall but will be better suited by the more honest pace she’s more likely to get here.
Selection:
Back now: Maria’s Benefit each-way at 13/2 BOG with William Hill
Other Day Three selections
TULLY EAST caught my eye when sixth in the BetVictor Gold Cup last November and I’m prepared to risk him on testing ground over a similar trip for the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate. He won a good edition of the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase last year and there was enough promise in his latest start to say he’s still capable.
At somewhere near twice the price, Romain De Senam is also interesting. He finished one place ahead of Tully East in the BetVictor and still looks competitive on his current mark. The ground is a negative, however.
I’m also going to stubbornly side with MALL DINI, even though there is a doubt about whether he’s completely effective on testing ground. He got too far back in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir last year and has shaped well on a couple of occasions behind stablemate Presenting Percy (runs in the RSA Insurance Chase) this season.
Selections:
Back now: Tully East at 9/1 BOG with Ladbrokes for the Brown Advisory Plate
Back now: Mall Dini at 5/1 BOG with various firms for the Kim Muir
