Lydia Hislop's Road to Cheltenham: Wednesday selections

Neptune Investments Novices’ Hurdle

Neon Wolf has been redirected here after drying ground was deemed to have made the Supreme too much of a test of speed. His Haydock success, which compared well on the clock with The New One over the course and distance that day, is the best British form at two miles.

This race is often not run at an all-out pace but this 15-strong field – a meatier edition than for the past two years – might not conform to that prejudice and the favourite has his stamina to prove. His connections have also expressed worries about quickish conditions and given that’s what they’ve got, he’s worth taking on at the prices.

Willie Mullins has extended his winning run over me at Guess Who, with Let’s Dance ducking this target but her Leopardstown vanquished Kemboy pitching up here instead of in the Albert Bartlett – all hail NRNB, in the first scenario at least.

That makes Bacardys the obvious win bet after he won a deep race at Leopardstown last time in the style of a horse who’ll improve plenty at this trip. He ran really well when staying on strongly in last year’s Festival bumper and is fine on the drying ground. He’s also the choice of Ruby Walsh from a strong potential hand.

I suspect Kemboy will still run well and given he hasn’t had the additional start I had anticipated when putting him up for the Albert Bartlett, I can understand why he’s been re-routed here. Despite being on the back foot in this race, I’m going to stick to my guns and back him each-way as well because he would have given Let’s Dance something to think about had he not dragged his hinds legs through the second last.

Both Keeper Hill, who’s steadily improving, and Messire Des Obeaux, whom he defeated at Huntingdon when in receipt of 8lbs, are place players

Expect Poetic Rhythm to out-perform his odds. He may not yet have won a hurdle race but he’s contested strong events and will be staying on to good effect at the finish. Shattered Love will also appreciate the step up in trip and benefits from the mare’s gold-dust 7lb allowance.

I’d be against Consul De Thaix because he hasn’t had a clean preparation and would have preferred Willoughby Court in the Albert Bartlett and on soft ground.

Selections:

Any Second Now: advised 19/01/16 at 16/1 each way [NR]

Let’s Dance: advised 08/03/17 at 7/1 NRNB win only

Back Bacardys at 7/2 win only

Back Kemboy each-way at 33/1 

RSA Chase

The comparative sectionals of the King George and the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase indicate that Might Bite is Thistlecrack in disguise. At every stage in each race, both horses were pretty much doing the same thing and yet the novice – had he stood up rather than crashing out at the last – would have won by about 18 lengths and in a time two or three seconds quicker than the King George.

The question for him is whether he can reproduce that form on an undulating track and whether a heavy fall has undermined his confidence or else offers evidence that his jumping could come apart when pressure is applied. He has won a shallow novices’ hurdle at Cheltenham (waywardly) but disappointed on both his two subsequent runs here.

There will be pressure up front because that’s also how Acapella Bourgeois rolls but then again I’m not sure he’ll enjoy Might Bite’s close attentions either. He stole the race at Navan last time when left alone on a long lead. It depends on what cracks first: his ambition or Might Bite’s jumping. Marinero will also have designs on the lead.

Alpha Des Obeaux has a lot in his favour: a liking for quick conditions, an excellent second in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle and likeable early-season novice-chasing form. Trainer Mouse Morris is also a dab hand at producing horses primed to the Festival moment after a break. However this horse is said to have bled badly last time out.

Whisper must prove an attritional, undulating three miles is what he wants whereas the mare Briery Belle will improve for it but there were 21 lengths between them when they met here in January. I’m not sure about OO Seven’s gumption.

It’s hard to be confident in Bellshill when he’s fallen twice lately, once when beaten in a race and once when schooling. He’s yet to run well at the Festival, albeit the trips were too short, but it’s interesting that Willie Mullins has persisted with this target despite a horror preparation.

I’ve come round to Royal Vacation who, on literal form, has about 18 lengths to find on Might Bite. But he’s improving, handles the track, jumps soundly, is unexposed at the trip and won’t get involved in the early machinations.

Selection:

Back Royal Vacation each-way at 12/1 bpg

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

Douvan is not attending a coronation. He must win this race against sterner opposition for the task than he has yet faced in his career. The likes of God’s Own, Fox Norton and an on-song Special Tiara will make him work hard for his money – or hard-er at least.

He hasn’t consolidated much knowledge in his second season over fences in Ireland to date. In fact he’s looked so bored by the level of his opposition that the fences have on occasion seemed to come as an diverting distraction from more important things, like climate change or how best to proceed with Brexit negotiations.

He’s a burgeoning talent but labeling him the next coming so soon after the likes of Kauto Star and Sprinter Sacre were racing on this turf is to do a disservice to such enduring and more proven talents. It may be that Douvan is all that but that’s why we run races rather than handing out prizes beforehand: to find out.

God’s Own is the obvious place play, given his run style enables him to arrive on the scene late. Fox Norton is entitled to improve on his below-par second to Altior following a setback; he was hitherto improving. The super Special Tiara will need to bounce back to his best form of last season to get involved because he’s looked a shadow of himself in recent starts, even if his two soft-ground performances can be forgiven.

Sir Valentino is half-interesting in the each-way without Douvan market. He might have beaten Special Tiara when conceding 6lbs at Kempton but for making a mistake at the second last. His Tingle Creek run says stablemate God’s Own is his superior but he is still improving. The margin for error is too small to muster sufficient enthusiasm for a bet even each-way at 8/1, though.

Selection:

No bet

Other races

It struck me in the Cleeve that Old Guard was best directed towards the Coral Cup than any target more taxing on class or stamina. It’s not a strong view but he’s unexposed at 2m5f and drying ground is a huge positive.

I’m tending towards the upper weights in the Fred Winter. Divin Bere has had a breathing operation since beating Triumph hopeful Master Blueyes at Huntingdon and will be suited by conditions placing an emphasis on speed.

But Project Bluebook might have beaten another Triumph contender in Forth Bridge last time out at Musselburgh had he not been cut up on the inside when coming to challenge. I’m sure he’s better than his mark, he handles a sound surface and he’s got loads of experience

Selections:

Back Old Guard in the Coral Cup each-way at 25/1 NRNB with Sky Bet

Back Project Bluebook in the Fred Winter each-way at 12/1 NRNB