Weights & Measures | Main Fact could tackle G1 Long Walk next after Haydock win

Is Lostintranslation overrated?

Bristol De Mai ↔ stays on 169
Clan Des Obeaux ↔ stays on 171
Lostintranslation ↔ stays on 171

There’s not much else to say about Bristol De Mai that wasn’t covered in Saturday’s analysis following his terrific third win in the Betfair Chase.

He remains a 169-rated horse and the runner-up, Clan Des Obeaux, is still rated 171 after running his race in second, which all seems fair enough.

In third was LOSTINTRANSLATION, 47 lengths behind the winner, and he too remains on 171, but I wonder how much longer he’ll be able to hold onto such a number?

He was originally put up 12lb to a mark of 173 12 months ago when he saw off Bristol De Mai in last year’s Betfair Chase, which was also fair enough, if you believe the runner-up ran to form that day.

It was on good to soft ground, though, and, while it’s looking like such conditions are exactly what Lostintranslation needs, we know that Bristol wants it softer, so I’m immediately doubting that figure for Colin Tizzard’s horse.

After that Lostintranslation was pulled up in the King George, where it was soft, while a breathing problem was cited as an excuse, as well, something that was eradicated by wind surgery by the time he lined up in the Gold Cup almost three months later.

That Gold Cup third is the one thorn in the overrated argument, as he jumped and travelled superbly that day at Cheltenham to be beaten a length-and-a-half by the 175-rated Al Boum Photo, with the 172-rated Santini in second, while Monalee (168) and Delta Work (171) were fourth and fifth respectively.

It’s just one piece of evidence, however, and the flops have outnumbered the good runs since his own Betfair Chase success.

Perhaps he is a bona fide 170-plus horse on better ground, and maybe he will bounce back, but I’d be wary of that 171 OR next to his name on the racecard for now as there’s a chance he’s just not worthy of such a number.

The Main man set for Grade 1 test

Main Fact ⬆ 7lb to 154

The Grade One Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot could be next on the agenda for the incredible MAIN FACT as he goes for a 10th successive victory on his next start.

Looking at his hurdling form in isolation, the son of Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Blame has now gone up 56lb in the weights since his first start for David Pipe, still less than a year ago.

He was actually beaten off a mark of 98 that day at Exeter on December 6 2019, but has won all six of his starts over hurdles since, his latest remarkable victory, in the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday, earning him another 7lb rise from 147 to 154.

All of his wins, over both hurdles and on the Flat, have come in soft and heavy ground, and Pipe feels he’s earned a crack at graded company now as he bids to extend his winning sequence.

“He was always going to go up around that [7lb] and it probably puts him into graded races now,” Pipe said on Tuesday.

“I’d say he probably is a better horse on soft and heavy ground, his race record tells you that, but he will be tried on better ground at some point. Given his style of racing I just think that soft and heavy ground slows some of the others down, which helps him.

“Clearly the step up in trip brought out further improvement, so we’ll stick to three miles now.

“He’ll get an entry in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot next month and races like that and the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham will be the type of targets on his agenda.

“He was bought as a good fun horse and nobody could have foreseen this improvement. He’s been amazing.”

The Long Walk Hurdle is a race that Pipe has targeted before on the back of victory in the Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle, formerly the ‘Fixed Brush’ [miss you, sob], as Dynaste ran fourth at Ascot behind Big Buck’s immediately after winning the Haydock race in 2011.

Pipe also won the Long Walk with Lough Derg, who won the Grade One once from three attempts, his victory coming in 2007 at the expense of Hardy Eustace, while David’s father, Martin, won the Ascot race a couple of times with Vagog and Deano’s Beeno.

It will be exciting to see if the latest Pond House winning machine can add his name to the Long Walk roll of honour, and he’s certainly earned a crack at the top level after winning six handicap hurdles, and nine races in total, on the spin.

Umbrigado could switch to fences

Umbrigado ⬆ 3lb to 142

While we’re on Pipe and his Saturday Haydock runners, a quick line on UMBRIGADO who ran a super race in second in the Betfair Racing Only Bettor Handicap Hurdle behind War Lord.

Colin Tizzard’s winner went up 7lb to 138 for the victory with Umbrigado, one-and-a-quarter lengths in arrears, going up 3lb to 142 after running on well for the runner-up spot despite being hampered by the fall of Arrivederci three out.

Only six, Umbrigado ran fifth in the aforementioned Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle last year when only five, but a tilt at more handicap hurdles could be put on the back burner with Pipe deliberating whether to go chasing with him now.

“He didn’t get all the luck in-running and he ran well,” Pipe said. “We haven’t decided yet if he’ll go novice chasing or stick to hurdles.

“We’ll school him over fences and see how he schools, have a chat with the owners and go from there.

“We’ve always thought a lot of him and it was a promising first run of the season.”

Indeed it was, as this was a career-best from Umbrigado. Whatever he’s jumping next, he’ll be interesting off 142 in either a handicap hurdle or first time up in a novice handicap chase.

Imperial Aura continues rapid ascent

Imperial Aura ⬆ 6lb to 163
Real Steel ⬇ 3lb to 163

IMPERIAL AURA put in a classy performance to land the Grade Two Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase and is now a 163-rated horse with the promise of more to come.

Kim Bailey has been ultra-patient with this horse and he’s reaping the benefits, with the lightly-raced seven-year-old on such a steep upward curve he’s now 7/1 favourite for the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

That looks a sensible target for him at this stage given how comfortable he looks at around two-and-a-half miles, but it will be interesting to see if any Gold Cup chat gets louder heading into the spring.

It’ll be 26 years in March since Bailey last won the Gold Cup with Master Oats, and while that horse was a strong stayer dropping back in trip, Imperial Aura looks to have all the attributes required in a Gold Cup horse – with just his stamina to prove.

Imperial Commander won the Ryanair Chase as an eight-year-old for the same owners, before winning the Gold Cup the following year at nine, and it’s hard to get away from the idea that this horse is on a similar path. He looks that good.

Of course, he has to go and do it now and a rating of 163 leaves him with 6lb to find on last year’s Ryanair winner, Min, who will be 10 next spring, while last year’s top Irish novices Samcro and Allaho are likely to be in the picture, too.

REAL STEEL, having his first start for Paul Nicholls, is dropped 3lb to the same 163 rating on the back of his seven-and-a-half length third to Imperial Aura at Ascot.

If the two were to meet off levels next time Imperial Aura would be a strong favourite in such a match, but Real Steel did give the winner 2lb on Saturday and he might’ve finished a bit closer were it not for his mistake three out.

He too could have the Ryanair Chase, for which he's a 20/1 chance, on his agenda after a strong-travelling but ultimately non-staying sixth in last season’s Gold Cup.

A stone (and more) in hand is worth a Hexham win for the Bush

Bushypark ⬆ 15lb to 98

BUSHYPARK landed a monumental gamble at Hexham last Wednesday for the Phil Kirby yard and the handicapper has responded with a 15lb hike for the six-year-old.

Backed down from morning prices of 16/1, the money didn’t stop pouring on the son of Le Fou right up until the off where he was sent off the 7/4 favourite for the 2m4f handicap hurdle. This came on the back of three heavy defeats, by a combined margin of 160 lengths, which were all on good to soft or better ground.

Kirby said the improvement was down to the much softer conditions and the application of a cross-nose band which helped him settle better, and he duly powered through the race up front under Tommy Dowson, where there was not a moment’s worry for either the jockey or his backers.

An unchallenged 11-length winner, the eyebrow-raising victory did not go down well with everyone and the Horseracing Bettors Forum publicly asked the BHA to investigate the matter.

Whether you think that is necessary or not, it will be interesting to see if Bushypark takes up one of his entries at Doncaster on Friday where he’ll be 8lb well-in under a 7lb penalty for either the 3m handicap at 12.55 or the 2m4f handicap at 2.00.

The ground is currently ‘Good’ at Doncaster, which is one of the best draining tracks in the country, while there is little rain forecast anyway with only a few showers on Wednesday predicted to fall.

This Week's BHA Major Amendments (November 24)

Bushypark ⬆ 15lb to 98
Buzz ⬆ 11lb to 148
Demachine ⬆ 8lb to 140
Espoir De Guye ⬆ 6lb to 150
First Flow ⬆ 6lb to 154
Imperial Aura ⬆ 6lb to 163
Llandinabo Lad ↔ in at 141
Main Fact ⬆ 7lb to 154
Marracudja ⬇ 4lb to 139
Master Tommytucker ⬆ 9lb to 157
Perfect Candidate ⬆ 8lb to 142
Quarenta ⬆ 5lb to 142
Robin Gold ⬆ 8lb to 116
Shang Tang ⬆ 3lb to 130
Snow Leopardess ⬆ 8lb to 134
Song For Someone ⬆ 3lb to 156
Third Wind ⬆ 3lb to 144
Umbrigado ⬆ 3lb to 142
War Lord ⬆ 7lb to 138

Previous Weights & Measures

• Coole Cody up 6lb for Paddy Power win (November 17)

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