Arc de Triomphe tips: Matt Brocklebank's Antepost Angle preview ahead of ParisLongchamp showpiece on October 4

Recommended bets, Sunday October 4

1pt e.w. Raabihah in Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at 20/1

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With a lot of noise surrounding Love following her Yorkshire Oaks stroll, now looks a suitable time for a bet in the Arc de Triomphe market and RAABIHAH (20/1 Sky Bet, Hills 1/5 1,2,3) stands out as being over-priced.

Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget has trained some superb horses in recent seasons but Raabihah is without doubt his best filly since Stacelita, and potentially the best he's ever had.

Stacelita, who went on to be campaigned at the highest level by Chad Brown in the States, was an unbeaten three-year-old going into the 2009 Arc, where she was sent off at 20/1 and ended up a well-held seventh behind Sea The Stars.

Her strangely generous odds on the big day are indicative of the fact that Stacelita was arguably a touch flattered to be unbeaten come the October of her Classic campaign, despite winning twice at the highest level earlier in the season, and on reflection it just wasn’t a particularly strong crop of fillies.

However, that’s definitely not the case this time around and it can be argued that Raabihah – herself a daughter of Sea The Stars – is unfortunate not to possess an unblemished record.

As a result she looks a relatively wild price for Arc glory in comparison to Aidan O’Brien’s Guineas and Oaks heroine Love, who is no bigger than 9/4 (Sky Bet, bet365 and BetVictor) and as short as 6/4 with Betway.

Raabihah isn’t a Classic winner, but she possibly should be. The sole defeat of her light career (unraced at two) to date came in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly in early-July, where she was surely at the least the equal of the three fillies who scrambled home ahead of her.

Drawn poorly in nine, the giant filly got absolutely no cover through the early stages, pulled for her head, and had to travel three-deep, widest of all into the home turn, after which Peaceful squeezed her for room when edging right with a furlong (200m) to travel.

That effort – her first taste of Group One competition on just the third start of her life – can be marked up massively and although a bunched finish like that is rarely a good thing when it comes to assessing the merits of a top-class race, one should be willing to make exceptions.

This looks an exceptional group of three-year-old fillies and a seriously strong piece of form – from the last home, Vadsena, going on to win an all-weather conditions race next time, to winner Fancy Blue following up in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.

Peaceful, the Irish Guineas winner, hasn’t been seen since but runner-up Alpine Star, the emphatic Coronation Stakes winner at Royal Ascot, has subsequently bustled up St James’s Palace winner Palace Pier back down in trip in the Prix Jacques le Marois.

It’s hard to take anything but an extremely positive view of the race overall and what’s even more fascinating is that there isn’t a massive amount of reliable, collateral evidence when it comes to stacking it up with the form of Love, other than Alpine Star readily beating the overwhelming Arc favourite into fifth in last year’s Debutante Stakes at the Curragh.

While Love clearly did this column a significant favour at Newmarket and Epsom, there’s a fair case to be made that she hasn’t beaten a great deal in terms of Group One substance. The Guineas second, third and fourth – Cloak Of Spirits, Quadrilateral and Final Song – are 0-8 collectively since and it’s not like they’ve remained competing at the highest level either.

Last week was a relatively decent one for the Oaks form, Gold Wand and Passion doing their bit with wins at York and Naas respectively (Epsom second Ennistymon was beaten again), while Love looked imperious in slamming the 97-rated Alpinista by five lengths on the Knavesmire.

A further two lengths behind in the Yorkshire Oaks was One Voice and that represents a small snag if you’re dead set on opposing Love at Longchamp as Jessica Harrington’s filly had previously got to within a neck of Fancy Blue in the Nassau. Which, strictly speaking, leaves Raabihah with half a dozen lengths to find (and more considering Love seemingly didn’t come out of a hack canter).

But the subject of trip might just help sway things back in the French horse’s favour.

Firstly, I’m not at all convinced One Voice got the mile and a half well enough at York to be judged so tightly (Timeform have her running 3lb lower than at Goodwood), while on top of that Raabihah is yet to be seen over what is expected to be her optimum distance - a mile and a half.

She’s not only by Sea The Stars but her dam, Garmoosha, is out of Oaks winner Eswarah (2005), whose own dam, Midway Lady, also won the Epsom Classic in 1986.

That strong middle-distance pedigree looked firmly in evidence when winning a Listed race over a mile and three furlongs back in May, so the French Oaks effort gains extra credit as she was actually dropping back slightly in distance, since when she’s mopped up an easy 10-furlong Group Three opportunity in good style at Deauville.

From here it’s a tried-and-tested route with the Prix Vermeille, won by Stacelita en route to Paris, the confirmed plan and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that first try at the Arc distance bring about considerable further improvement.

It’ll be another good test but if she sees off the likes of last year’s winner Star Catcher, and possibly even Peaceful, then the filly her trainer is already hailing “a champion” would clearly enhance her Arc credentials further and the current odds are likely to look generous.

Avoiding Enable in a preview of the Arc de Triomphe would seem sacrilege to some and she did, admittedly, look right back on song in the King George at Ascot.

That was great to see after her Coral-Eclipse comeback wobble and the Arc is much richer for her inclusion, but there’s always a fresh threat for previous champions in this great race.

Last year it was Ghaiyyath, who had posted a monster figure out in Germany, and while he didn’t beat her, it’s hard to argue that his presence didn’t ultimately help soften Enable up and leave the door ajar for Waldgeist to spoil the party.

Typically, it’s the three-year-old fillies that the others have to fear most – these days they get 4lb from the Classic colts and as much as 10lb from the older males – and not one took Enable on in last year’s race. As already stressed, this season there's a whole bunch of very promising younger fillies and it’s that fact, combined with what happened in the race last October, which suggests connections of Ghaiyyath might choose to look elsewhere entirely.

There are no shortage of world-class races at the end of the season for him to run in and his sheer power and pace over 10 furlongs this term gives the impression he may simply not be quite as effective over the longer trip in this very best company.

The QIPCO Champion Stakes at Ascot, followed by a crack at the Longines Turf at the Breeders’ Cup or the Japan Cup later on, both of which place less emphasis on stamina despite being over 12 furlongs, look likely candidates after the horse’s Juddmonte International Stakes win, and he’s very much the one near the top of the Arc market I’d be looking to avoid at the moment.

Posted at 1600 BST on 24/08/20

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