Free golf betting tips: Final round of Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

Golf betting tips: Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

1pt David Lipsky (without McIlroy, Hatton, Fleetwood) at 3/1

1pt e.w. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (without same three) at 12/1 (1/4 1,2,3)

3pts Joost Luiten to beat Kurt Kitayama (tie no bet) at 8/11

The first European Tour event of 2021 it may be, but the Abu Dhabi Championship will surely be voted as one of the best by the time the awards are given out at the end of the year.

With the first 36 holes offering several options on draw advantages, you would have needed to be up with the milkman to see the ending of the second round and Tyrell Hatton's five-shot lead being reduced to just one. However, bar the final-hole bogey there is little the world number 10 could do about the charging Rafa Cabrera-Bello and he would have been happy sitting atop the pile of top grade opposition, a place he has since given up to Rory McIlroy. With Tommy Fleetwood in third, it would be fair to say that the stage is set.

In the last five years, only Shane Lowry has won from the front at halfway so Moving Day held more significance given that three of the eventual winners did indeed lead from the front on Sunday. Sure, go back 12 months further and Gary Stal's incredible victory from eight behind Martin Kaymer but that sticks out very much as an anomaly and it's hard to see the entire top few succumbing to such treatment.

There isn't that much to say that we don't know about the one-shot leader, but after a stunning opener McIlroy was all over the place during his second round before an excellent display of iron play from rough and bunkers in the third round. He looked imperious at times and though ragged at others, a holed third shot for eagle at the 10th set him on course to take a small advantage into Sunday - the first time he's done so in an event which has somehow evaded him thus far.

During coverage Nick Doughery said of McIlroy: "That's what the best players do... they linger." It appears they then strike and brilliant birdies at 15 and 16, both courtesy of imperious iron shots, have set him up to finally take this title after a string of near-misses.

Playing with the infamous/dubious 'nappy factor' element still valid, the Irishman has a record of winning 40% of events when starting his final round in the final pair, and 55% when leading, although he is just two from five since 2018. While his record here looks awesome - seven top-three finishes, and a worst of 11th from 10 starts - this is going to be about nerves in the main and he looked as if he had more confidence as the round progressed.

Interestingly the top two have never played each other head-to-head and this is going to be about the mental challenge as shown on 15 when McIlroy relished being inside his rival's tee-shot and sinking the birdie putt. Whilst I have plenty of respect for Hatton, I felt Rory had the upper-hand mentally and although I can't back him at odds-on, he is surely going to hit more than just three or four fairways and is clearly the most likely winner. DJ et al - watch out!

Hatton wasn't at his best throughout Saturday but a long-range birdie at 17th kept him within touching distance, even if he should've drawn level only to three-putt the last. Clearly, he's now a decorated player who has earned his seat at the top table, but beating McIlroy on a Sunday they spend eyeballing each other would represent a career best and he has to go and do it now.

Master of the 'Angry or Passionate' self-help group I, actually can't think of a more frustrating golfer playing today than Tommy Fleetwood, who has recovered from a horror start to play some of the best golf in the field and now sits just two behind in his quest for a hat-trick here.

Out of the event through his initial nine holes on Thursday and trading at close to 500/1 on the exchange, the affable Englishman recorded 11-under through the next 36 and surely was surprised when he turned the corner today just a few behind as the final three-ball stalled just a little.

As comfortable here as he is anywhere, Fleetwood came alive on the greens in round three and his long-game rarely strays far from where he needs it to be. When he misses fairways or greens he is saving par, when he has a chance he is generally taking it, and while he might prefer to play in the final group, there's a chance he's perfectly poised just out of that spotlight in the penultimate one off.

The issue with Tommy, churlish as it may appear, is that he stalled after his hat-trick of birdies, his iron play dropping a notch or two, and Saturday's putting may be hard to replicate. Of course a player can't continue that long after a run of 41 bogey-free holes but after final rounds in Scotland (missed a host of chances) and Wentworth (six-bogey final round) there is always a doubt and at a best of 5/1 he doesn't scream value with just two places on offer.

My vote would go to McIlroy, then, but we can sit back and watch the tournament unfold with focus on that and the 'without' market, which removes these three world-class players from calculations and is accordingly open.

Had DAVID LIPSKY putted just a tad better through the first couple of days (he ranks 50th in strokes-gained putting) he would have been almost in front overnight. That changed through the third round as he almost looked like holing at every opportunity and as a winner at tricky Crans (Hatton and Fleetwood just behind) he has to be respected with conditions in his favour.

He has a couple of decent desert finishes and may be a decent exchange play at around 30 given his start just before the leaders - six-times Fleetwood's price with just one shot between them probably does a disservice to a player with two European Tour wins, in an event which has thrown up some curious Sundays.

Either way, he only needs to continue his play over the last two rounds to cement a place in the final five and makes a degree of appeal in Sky Bet's market without the front three at 3/1.

In the same market, last year's Dubai play-off loser CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT also appeals and is taken each-way to give us two against what's a big field of potential 'winners'.

There are not many golf followers that expect Bez to have completed his rise through the world rankings and he looks again to be peaking for another crack at next week's Dubai Desert Classic, where he was unfortunate against Lucas Herbert a year ago.

Perhaps of previous interest only to maybe Challenge Tour and Sunshine Tour boffins, Bez ranked outside the world's top 500 at the start of the 2019 season but after two wins at the end of 2020 he's up into 35th, and he's not stopped yet.

Victories at Valderrama, Leopard Creek and the Gary Player were all demonstrations of his accuracy off the tee and excellent scrambling skills and whilst he hasn't the best past record here, did save his best round until Sunday last year and his improvement at the course reflects his overall career trajectory.

Unlike many desert events, driving distance isn't the be all and end all around here and his accuracy and guile seem to be helping his score through what's been a challenging week.

Barring something of a miracle he isn't going to win this but he is also one of those that doesn't give up when out of the podium places and makes much appeal to keep going up the board. As shown on Saturday when playing in through the more blustery hours, the 26-year-old will want not mind any wind - the more the better, in fact - and he is a strong candidate at a double-figure price.

Further down, I have been watching JOOST LUITEN all week with the expectation he can finally play four 'proper' rounds, alas he made vital errors on Saturday when in with a chance of closing up on the front few.

Despite disappointing several backers in 2020 he left with three top-10s and with four finishes on the leaderboard around here makes much more appeal than his opponent Kurt Kitayama, who let a promising start to last season go with very little to show during his mix of PGA and European Tour efforts from February onwards.

Luiten had several Sunday rounds of less than 70 throughout the year and has shown that the Abu Dhabi course suits his game with six rounds of the same over his last 12, including 65 a couple of years ago. Wind is a bonus for this multiple tricky-track winner who has been striking it well for some time now.

Compare that with the American's no-show for a while and two Sunday rounds here of 75 and 73 and Luiten should really only have to keep his dominance from tee-to-green to win this with shots to spare. Take the 10/11 in a match or 8/11 removing the tie.

Posted at 1630 GMT on 23/01/21

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.