Lingfield tips: Best value bets and preview for Saturday January 20

By Matt Brocklebank

Horse Racing

Sat January 20, 2024 · 11M ago

Lingfield's all-weather action comes under the spotlight this Saturday and Matt Brocklebank has a couple of big-priced fancies on the card.

The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App one hour later.
Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 120pts in profit.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, January 20

1pt e.w. Darwell Lion in 2.00 Lingfield at 20/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt win One Night Stand in 2.35 Lingfield at 18/1 (William Hill)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Lion could now be revved up for team Carr

Simon and Ed Crisford didn’t let favourite-backers down on the Winter Millions Saturday card 12 months ago with Al Agaila justifying odds-on in the Winter Oaks Fillies’ Handicap, and the same training duo are a short price to win the Lingfield feature again this weekend.

The difficulty for punters on this occasion, however, is the fact the Crisfords saddle two and there might not be much between market leader Oh So Grand and likely second-favourite Twirling.

The fact Ryan Moore is on the latter will ensure she sees plenty of support and an uncontested lead isn’t completely out of the question for her, although Jack Mitchell will be hoping Twirling has company up front which would suit his mount Oh So Grand, who has really found her stride since switching to hold-up tactics this autumn/winter and surely hasn’t stopped improving yet.

James Tate’s filly Behind The Scenes may offer the best value around 8/1 against that pair as she moves back into handicap company and up in distance to 10 furlongs for the first time, but I’m happy enough to leave the main race alone, with DARWELL LION the standout bet of the day in the Bet £10 Get £40 At BetMGM Handicap earlier on the card.

Unlike the market leaders in this, namely Talis Evolvere and Al Rufaa, we know Darwell Lion is fully effective at Lingfield having won here twice in the past, including over this mile distance, and the two runs at Newcastle and Chelmsford since joining Ruth Carr from John Butler this winter might just have teed him up nicely for this decent prize.

On the face of it, he's run a couple of shockers in finishing eighth of 10 and dead last most recently, but on reflection he was hampered late on at Newcastle and didn’t exactly get a smooth trip at Chelmsford either, ending up being beaten just five lengths after getting outpaced when the tempo increased.

Those two runs have come over seven furlongs and he'll be much happier back up to a mile here, while he's been eased 1lb to 86 which should help as it means he's now just a pound higher than when winning at Kempton last May and over this track and trip – by almost four lengths – the previous January.

Embour – Carr's only runner on this card last year – caused an upset with a 16/1 victory for the same owners in the sprint handicap and, with a handy draw in stall five, I reckon Darwell Lion is being underestimated in the betting back at his favourite haunt this weekend.

Stand by for another course specialist

The other one worth a small interest at 16/1 or bigger is ONE NIGHT STAND in that aforementioned sprint contest - the Build Your Acca With BetUK Handicap.

The first thing to face up to here is that he’s back up in class and has to race from 4lb out of the handicap in such company these days, but even off a mark of 84 there’s no denying he’s perfectly well treated on the pick of his form.

That includes a Listed success over this course and distance, one of his four career victories at Lingfield, as well as a very fair fifth in last summer’s Epsom Dash from a mark of 92.

Having come crashing all the way down to 70 on the back of a string of moderate efforts on the all-weather and grass last year, Scott Dixon's charge finally cashed in when winning in fine style here just before Christmas and he’s held his form pretty well in defeat since then too.

He probably should have followed up the easy course win in December when snatching defeat from the jaws of victory after hanging right late on at Wolverhampton, but then showed up well for a long way before being swamped close home over six furlongs back here last week.

That effort underlined the fact he’s still in really good heart and while there might be a bit of pace pressure from Bedford Flyer and Bergerac if they get away on terms, I doubt either of that pair will be quicker from the gates than One Night Stand and he should be able to get to the front from stall four.

This horse obviously has his quirks but is evidently no back-number at seven and he looks to have enough in his favour to merit a dart at the prices.

Published at 1600 GMT on 19/01/24

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org

Like what you've read?