Leopardstown tips: Best value bets for Sunday February 5

By Matt Brocklebank

Horse Racing

Sun February 05, 2023 · 2y ago

Matt Brocklebank has an each-way fancy on day two of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown.

Value Bet tips: Sunday, February 5

1pt e.w. Mars Harper in 2.40 Leopardstown at 16/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The quality continues thick and fast on day two at Leopardstown but the really appealing betting races are still relatively thin on the ground.

If I had to back one in any of the four Grade 1s on the day then it would probably be a complete flier on I Am Maximus (33/1) who lines up against the likes of Mighty Potter and stablemates Gaillard Du Mesnil and James Du Berlais in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase.

I Am Maximus is a bit of a law unto himself and his jumping over fences so far this season has left plenty to be desired, but I’m pretty convinced he’s got the raw talent to mix it in this sort of company if and when it all clicks.

It’s clearly asking a lot of him to suddenly get his act together over fences in a race quite as hot as this, but if you are willing to take a chance on one at a wild price then he might run a lot better than his odds suggest with Danny Mullins taking over in the saddle for the first time.

Willie Mullins has suggested he'll be ridden chilly but, regardless of a possible change in tactics, if he finds himself in some sort of rhythm early doors then it’s not hard to see him trading a good deal shorter than his SP at some stage in-running.

I can’t quite justify a bet in the race, though, and would rather focus on the Bulmbers Leopardstown Handicap Chase which represents a drop back in trip for Real Steal who won the hugely competitive Paddy Power at the big meeting here over Christmas.

It seemed like his natural pace was a key weapon after they hadn’t gone too quickly early on that day and I don’t see this distance proving his undoing. He’s only gone up 6lb too which looks fair enough, although reliability has been an issue in the past and he’s not 33/1 here either so I’ll look elsewhere.

I’m happy to take on the short-priced Indigo Breeze too as he might not come into his own until stepped back up in distance at Cheltenham in March (favourite for the Kim Muir with Sky Bet), with preference for Gordon Elliott stablemate MARS HARPER.

He makes his handicap debut over fences from a mark of just 132 and that looks perfectly manageable based on his runner-up efforts on his first two starts in this sphere.

He bumped into Mighty Potter first time out at Down Royal before chasing home Midnight Run (tried in a Grade 1 since) at Punchestown and the main reason we're getting such an attractive price today is due to the subsequent flop at Naas where Mars Harper evidently wasn't anywhere near his best,

Some of his best form over hurdles came in big fields, including a two-length second to Good Time Jonny in a 15-runner novices' handicap at this course in December 21, his only previous visit to Leopardstown.

Denis O'Regan, who rode the selection to be third in a Galway handicap hurdle last summer, is back in the saddle today and I reckon there's plenty that will suit him down to the ground. At 16/1 he's the most eye-catching Sunday bet.

Preview posted at 0906 GMT on 05/02/23

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