Antepost Value Bet winners this year include Ashtown Lad (16/1) in the Becher, Tuesday (11/1) at the Breeders' Cup and Desert Crown (25/1) in the Derby - check out the latest preview.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Leopardstown, December 27
1pt win Farceur Du Large in Paddy Power Chase at 20/1 (Unibet, bet365)
The Paddy Power Chase is the major handicap prize on offer across Leopardstown’s top-quality Christmas programme and the market has been taking shape since entries were published at the end of November.
Henry De Bromhead’s lightly-raced, second-season novice Ain't That A Shame, who remains a maiden over fences after five attempts to this point, has dominated the early skirmishes on the back of his head second in the Munster National to The Big Dog, who subsequently went on to beat Lifetime Ambition when doubling up in the Troytown.
Ain't That A Shame has been bumped up 7lb to a new mark of 144 for that defeat, but the form is clearly looking reliable and another big run seems likely back at the venue where he was second (albeit beaten 22 lengths) behind Galopin Des Champs in a beginners' event last Christmas.
Troytown fifth Frontal Assault – sent off the 3/1 favourite at Navan following a defeat of subsequent scorer Darrens Hope at Galway in early October – looks to be the leading fancy for Gordon Elliott again here and there’s plenty to recommend him too.
The one proviso you’d have with that pair is that they’re going to need some rain between now and race day to be seen at their very best, and Leopardstown’s often relatively sound surface (for the time of year, at least) might not be absolutely ideal for either.
Another who looks plenty short enough in the betting at this stage is apparent Willie Mullins first-string Mr Incredible, who could start out for his new trainer in this (also entered in the Welsh National) having seemingly gone sour on De Bromhead.
Things were progressing nicely enough for this horse when he won at Naas before chasing home Ahoy Senor at Newbury last November, but he promptly dug his heels in and refused to jump off with the others in the Grade One won by Fury Road at this corresponding meeting, and he was reluctant before not jumping at all well en route to being pulled-up on his belated return to the track at Tramore in the spring.
Mullins could be mob-handed if he wants as he has 10 entries among the top 40 at the time of writing and it's good to see Bleu Berry and Carefully Selected back in the fold after their respective layoffs. Carefully Selected won his bumper at this track and was odds-on for the 2020 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham but has been out of action since unseating Patrick Mullins at the Festival that day.
Like Mr Incredible, he can only be monitored for now, for all that their marks no doubt underestimate their raw talent, and the same watching brief applies to the Martin Brassil-trained Panda Boy, who could be the major handicap blot of the race after two quiet runs over shorter distances at Cork and Punchestown last month.
A winner first time out over fences at Punchestown (3m) back in May, he’s obviously extremely light on experience for a race of this nature, but the latest Punchestown run came just in time to qualify for this particular prize (needed to have run three times in chases up to and including November 27), so it’s evidently been a well-hatched plan for a horse who won the major three-mile handicap hurdle on December 28 here last year.
Sticking with course form briefly, A Wave Of The Sea’s Leopardstown record reads 3151F1 and I suspect he’s a more guaranteed stayer at this sort of trip than fellow JP McManus-owned representative Donkey Years, who has been well supported in recent days.
Neither looks particularly well handicapped, though, and preference at the prices is for the Noel Meade-trained FARCEUR DU LARGE, who would definitely handle bad ground if it materialised but also has form in good and yielding conditions as well.
His chase debut fall at Naas last November appeared to dent his confidence quite considerably but Meade – who won the Paddy Power Chase last year with School Boy Hours – gradually worked him back up to win a novice event over the extended two miles, five furlongs at Fairyhouse on his final start of last season in January.
That race has been won by some good stayers over the years, including Enjoy D’allen in 2021, and Farceur Du Large beat the subsequent winner Flash De Touzaine by three lengths with something up his sleeve. He was only fourth to that same rival on his seasonal return at Galway at the end of October but improved loads for the comeback run – and the reapplication of cheekpieces – to win well in a handicap at Punchestown last month (replay below).
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
They omitted six fences that day which wouldn’t have suited the bold-jumping seven-year-old at all and I’m far from convinced the assessor will now have his measure after a 6lb rise in the ratings for what was just his second start in a handicap race – and a new career best by some margin.
He's only had two goes in the headgear too, so there’s every chance significant further improvement will be forthcoming, and although he’s predominantly been kept to clockwise courses, he doesn’t appear to jump alarmingly to his right or anything, and does have respectable maiden hurdle form at (left-handed) Naas and Navan, as well.
There are two firms offering 20/1 (Unibet and bet365), but the general 16s appeals as very fair value at this stage and he’s the one I want on side before the final declarations are confirmed.
Published at 1500 on 18/12/22
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
