Fran Berry pores over the entries for Leopardstown's big Christmas meeting and gives his views on all the major clashes, plus a couple of handicap fancies to consider.
Better value to be had?
Loads of quality racing on offer in Ireland over Christmas, the Leopardstown four-day meeting starting on December 26 and each card containing at least one Grade 1.
The juvenile hurdle on St Stephen’s Day is a very tricky race to weigh up at this stage, with a bunch of unknown entities, but the Racing Post Long Distance Novice Chase is an interesting race with plenty of form in the book.
It’s worth mentioning that Impaire Et Passe, Croke Park and Better Days Ahead are all entered in the Faugheen Novice Chase at Limerick too, so we’re having to go by feel more than anything else right now, but given that Impaire Et Passe was very good when winning on chasing debut over the extended two miles and five furlongs at Fairyhouse, one would think this might be the ideal test to see if he’s going to be a three-miler in the spring.
There’s no intermediate distance Grade 1 at Cheltenham these days, of course, which is almost forcing connections into taking an early look which can be no bad thing I guess.
Willie Mullins’ horse appeared to get better when he went up in distance last season, winning the Grade 1 at Aintree before helping seal the deal for his trainer in the British trainers’ title on the last day at Sandown, although maybe it was a case of him just facing slightly lesser competition and he didn’t need to improve all that much.
But you can’t fault the comeback win last month when starting out over fences, his jumping improved as he went on and stepping up to three miles could bring about further progress. With something close to good ground at Leopardstown, he could be hard to beat as he sets a fair standard.
Croke Park has been going about his business, but I feel Better Days Ahead could be the threat and if you could be certain which way they were all going then he’d probably be the best option for punters right now at 9/2.
Better Days Ahead was a good winner of the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham and that has produced plenty of quality staying chasers over the years. I was impressed with him when beating Slade Steel at Navan and I’m not saying he’ll beat Impaire Et Passe, but I’d imagine he could be over-priced at 9/2 as we may end up with a small field here.
Onto December 27 and the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase. There were huge question marks about Gaelic Warrior after everything went so badly wrong for him behind Fact To File at the DRF in February, but he coped very well with running on the sharp Old Course when dropped back in trip for the Arkle at Cheltenham.
A first-time hood showed him on his best behaviour, even going left-handed, and while he was a bit disappointing when beaten by Il Etait Temps at Punchestown, that might not have seen him or Paul Townend at their best on the day. They just went a bit steady and he got beaten for speed - that said, Il Etait Temps is a very good horse in his own right.
There are a number of rematches in the race potentially. Dinoblue often improves for a run and has had a prep, she also won this race last year but whether that was more a case of her capitalising on a slightly less competitive renewal remains to be seen. That’s possibly how it played out later into last season as she failed to add to her tally.
Marine Nationale is also entitled to step forward for his comeback run when beaten at Naas, although it was a little bit worrying how he was carrying his head there and it seemed to affect his jumping, so I’d have a question mark over him, personally, as the engine is clearly there if he’s right.
Found A Fifty has bagged two Grade 2s already this year and he’s probably the most interesting one as his form ties in with Gaelic Warrior and Il Etait Temps, although he did jump quite badly to his right at Navan and has done that in the past too.
But he’s a Grade 1 winner and if Found A Fifty is going to beat Gaelic Warrior then it might well be on this occasion as he’s had the two runs and goes there in top form but if the favourite brings his A-game and is ready to go then he’s the horse they all have to beat and the market has it right.
It’s a common theme and Gordon Elliott and Mullins have the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle seriously well covered too, with a host of entries each and Salvator Mundi is the clear market leader at this point.
The four-year-old ran very well in the face of a stiff task in the Triumph Hurdle, before winning his maiden as he liked at Tipperary in May, and the question now is what he can go on to achieve as he’s turning five. You can see why the bookies are running for cover.
I think stepping up to two and a half miles might suit Elliott’s Romeo Coolio, who was second in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse, and Bleu De Vassy might be the first choice for the yard.
The one I suspect could be overlooked is Karniquet, who won a 15-runner maiden in Tramore as he liked late last month. Form from that track can often be wrongly ignored by punters but he definitely fits into the ‘could be anything’ category at this stage.
Ballygunner Castle and Karafon are really nice prospects and quite well regarded by all accounts too, so it’s another difficult race but Salvator Mundi looks the outstanding one at this point.
That Will Do for me at 33/1...
The Paddy Power Chase is the big handicap of the meeting and as things stand the market is headed up by last year’s one-two Meetingofthewaters and Panda Boy.
Given Meetingofthewaters has a few potential engagements over Christmas and would be making his debut for the year, I’d be looking at him as more of a long-term Irish/English Grand National prospect. Or something along those lines anyway.
Panda Boy ran a superb race here last season when the rain came on the day and is only running off a 3lb higher mark. He handles better ground and still has the potential to pick up a big race of this nature, while his Martin Brassil stablemate Desertmore House is one to keep tabs on too after his eyecatching run over hurdles last time.
He would be highly interesting if the market speaks in his favour but it’s a typically competitive edition and I’ve a couple of other each-way suggestions, the first being Perceval Legallois. He made a bad mistake four out in the Troytown when losing a couple of lengths at the cross fence. He was just on the tail of the eventual winner Stuzzikini at the time and he lost so much momentum, which wasn’t really picked up on at the time.
Not for the first time, Gavin Cromwell’s horse shaped far better than the result and he seems to be on a workable mark, while the one to note if sneaking in further down the weights is the Elliott-trained Will Do.
Will Do has some quality form to his name from NH Flat Races, having bumped into the likes of Fact To File and Tullyhill in the past. After winning his first two hurdle starts early last season he came up short but was running in some very competitive handicaps and didn’t shape without promise, including at this course when ninth at the DRF.
Having had three quick runs over fences recently, he could relish stepping up in trip now and he looks well-handicapped off a mark of 126 as he’s open to plenty of improvement being a seven-year-old. The qualifying runs over shorter distances have left the impression there is more to come.
He’s 33/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair at the time of writing and might be worth chancing.
Another grey day for Mullins?
The Savills Chase looks a cracking contest. We were spoilt really with such a strong edition of the John Durkan but the fairly recent decision to move that race forward a couple of weeks clearly paid off last year and looks to have done so again, as if you remember in 2022 Galopin Des Champs didn’t run in the Savills having won the John Durkan on December 19.
He was third in the Punchestown race (in its earlier slot) last year before winning in brilliant fashion at Leopardstown over Christmas and his many fans will be looking for something similar after again having to settle for third, this time behind Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower.
A lot will depend on the ground at Kempton and Spillane’s Tower could come here too if not travelling to England. It would be a huge boost to the race if they all turn up.
On all known form, both Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs are much better over three miles rather than the distance of the John Durkan so it’s conceivable that both will step forward on that basis, and due to having their seasonal debut behind them.
It’s all about how you marry the potential and younger legs of Fact To File with the battle-hardened class of Galopin Des Champs, who may well have paid the price late on for an exuberant round of jumping and keen racing on his comeback. Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower were certainly ridden with a little more restraint on that occasion, and they were able to capitalise.
It'll be fascinating to see how all those horses have progressed from Punchestown but the gut says Fact To File – as a seven-year-old and more lightly-raced – could again have the beating of Galopin Des Champs but you do have to take into account the latter’s superb track record here. He’s probably even better at Leopardstown than he is at Cheltenham, for all that he’s won two Gold Cups. And last season in this race was probably as awesome as he’s ever looked, beating Gerri Colombe by 23 lengths.
You can’t rule out a big run from Gerri Colombe either as the Down Royal run was probably too bad to be true, although the likely ground at Leopardstown might not be totally his bag.
As you can probably tell, I’m sitting on the fence with this one at the current odds but it’ll be interesting to see how it develops if Mark Walsh is still stalking Paul Townend between the final two fences.
Earlier on the Saturday, we have the three-mile Christmas Hurdle and the main point is that Teahupoo will probably swerve this as connections have said he might follow last year’s route and go back to Cheltenham without having another run.
So this could cut up to some extent and while both Home By The Lee and Bob Olinger head up the market – and rightly so based on form after their recent wins – neither of them are horses that you’d take to the bank every day of the week given their quirks and various issues.
The most interesting one for me at the odds is 10-year-old grey Asterion Forlonge. He was second in this last year to Irish Point, after which he didn’t fully show up at Cheltenham but was then a ready winner of a conditions chase at Cork in March before finishing second behind Teahupoo at Punchestown.
That was a really strong effort and on the likely ground – and fresh from a summer layoff, I think he’s capable of surprising a few people. He’s definitely got the tools to make an impact in a race as open as this.
Man we can all rely on this Christmas
The Neville Hotels Hurdle is looking like a rematch between State Man and Brighterdaysahead.
Lossiemouth is seemingly Kempton-bound and Mystical Power would need to bounce back from a disappointing run at Newcastle, so we’ll focus on the big two in the betting here.
Brighterdaysahead had the benefit of her seasonal debut win at Down Royal when going into the Morgiana clash with State Man and Jack Kennedy made full use of that fitness, putting pace to the race and battling back to assert after a very small error from State Man at the last flight.
That slight mistake was a little bit out of character and it appeared that State Man was possibly getting a bit tired at the time. He did quite well to reduce the deficit again close home and he possibly just took a blow.
Not too many people sound convinced that the mare is going to uphold the form at Leopardstown and I’d be struggling to see it too to be honest.
WATCH: Brighterdaysahead beats State Man in Unibet Morgiana Hurdle
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Whilst Brighterdaysahead gets the 7lb allowance, State Man is so good around Leopardstown and given the connections of the mare have suggested the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham could be her ideal aim over a longer trip, it might be tough for her here on day four of the Christmas meeting as the track will be configured on the innermost circumference of Leopardstown. That tends to bring out the best of the Mullins horse and one would imagine his tactical speed will see him gain revenge on this course.
Ground permitting, this whole meeting will just give us a great ideal of the pecking order in lots of the divisions going into the Dublin Racing Festival and Cheltenham later in the year.
Whilst the Graded races are the ones most people will consider unmissable, don’t forget about Perceval Legallois and Will Do if he makes the cut for the Paddy Power Handicap!
Published at 1050 GMT on 19/12/24
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