Our man feels now is the time to strike a couple of long-range bets for the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Antepost Value Bet tips: National Hunt season
1pt win Eldorado Allen in King George VI Chase at 50/1 (Ladbrokes) – General 33/1 also fine
1pt win Noble Yeats in King George VI Chase at 50/1 (William Hill) – General 33/1 also fine
The Ladbrokes King George VI Chase market looks ripe for a bet ahead of a potentially informative weekend and the sponsors are taking a bit of a liberty with ELDORADO ALLEN at 50/1.
Meanwhile, Bravemansgame – the horse who beat Eldorado Allen just three and a half lengths when in receipt of 3lb in last month’s Charlie Hall Chase – is the general 11/10 favourite. That doesn’t add up at all and if Eldorado Allen gets so much as close to A Plus Tard in Saturday’s Betfair Chase at Haydock, then his Kempton price will come crashing down like felled timber.
To put a little more meat on the bones, you only have to look at the official ratings of the Wetherby one-two – Bravemansgame 164 versus Eldorado Allen 162 – to see Joe Tizzard’s grey is being vastly underestimated and this is an eight-year-old open to further further improvement as a stayer after just three starts at/around three miles.
The first yielded an impressive win over Royale Pagaille, who had just defied a mark of 163 when winning the Peter Marsh, in Newbury’s Denman Chase (just shy of 3m) at the start of the year and, after finishing third in the Ryanair Chase in March, Eldorado Allen looked to have had enough for the season (sixth start) when stepped back up in trip for Aintree's Betway Bowl.
The Ryanair effort, when ultimately beaten 15 lengths by Allaho, definitely wants marking up too as he was the only one who tried to take it to the winner from an early stage. You can understand what was going through connections’ minds as they wanted to use his proven stamina if at all possible, but in hindsight I’m certain he’d have been a clear second best had he been ridden a bit more conservatively.
Eldorado Allen was outpaced again in the Charlie Hall – initially at least – before running on encouragingly after the last, and it looks a run he can definitely build on at Haydock this weekend.
Providing all is well, Kempton is the logical next step over Christmas and I refuse to believe he’s a rank outsider for a race that has already started to cut up – and will no doubt continue to do so in the coming weeks.
Allaho won’t be coming over for Willie Mullins, who may have to settle for last year’s unpredictable winner Tornado Flyer as his 2022 representative, but the other Irish entry I'd love to see come into the mix is Emmet Mullins' NOBLE YEATS.
Another priced up as if having tons to find on form, that couldn’t be further from the truth in reality and while plans are obviously up in the air at this point, one would imagine owner Robert Waley-Cohen will be trying to persuade his trainer to at least have a close look, given the famous maroon and orange silks were carried to victory on a couple of occasions by Long Run in this event a decade ago.
Long Run was six when he won his first King George and Grand National winner Noble Yeats still has plenty of time on his side as a seven-year-old, while he looked to be well and truly over whatever may have been troubling him at Auteuil last month when winning comfortably in a Listed chase at Wexford last time.
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Aintree could obviously be the ultimate goal again in the spring but with last year's generous mark now completely blown, they've very little to lose in rolling the dice in races like the King George en route, and it’s still not beyond the realms of possibility he proves himself to be a genuine Cheltenham Gold Cup contender this year.
He’s certainly got more than a touch of class about him, jumps superbly when on song, while a return of the cheekpieces - worn for the first time in the National - could yet spark another chunk of improvement at some point this term.
The 50/1 (William Hill) about him also looks an insult, while the general 33s regarding both still represents fair value.
Published at 1400 GMT on 16/11/22
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