King George VI Chase tips: 10-year trends analysis

Age

Five winners have been aged eight and another trio were aged seven, while we’ve seen one winner apiece aged six and nine in the past decade.

The only six-year-old was Clan Des Obaux, who represents the same connections as this year’s sole six-year-old Hitman, who coincidentally also carries the same official rating (160) into the race Clan Des Obeaux did when winning for the first time here in 2018.

This year's market leaders Bravemansgame and L'Homme Presse are both aged seven, while 10-year-old Frodon is the oldest in the possible line-up.

Official rating

Focusing on the past 10 editions conveniently coincides with the post-Kauto Star era after he almost completely dominated the King George between 2006 and 2011 – Long Run was the only horse to break his stranglehold in that six-year period as the youngster made him play second-fiddle in the 2010 edition (which was in fact run in January 2011 after snow and frost forced the meeting to be rescheduled).

The general arc in terms of the winner’s official rating going into the race during the subsequent period has been down. Following a run of five 170+ rated winners, the most recent quintet have all been in the 160s, the lowest of which was the aforementioned Clan Des Obeaux in 2018.

The highest-rated horse this year, and the only one with an official rating of 170 on the back of an impressive comeback win in handicap company in the Rehearsal at Newcastle, is the Venetia Williams-trained L’Homme Presse.

Previous race & days since last run

L’Homme Presse’s handicap prep run is an unusual one to say the least and the principal trial over the past 10 years has – perhaps predictably - been the Betfair Chase, a race contested by half of the 10 most recent winners.

Silviniaco Conti (2014) and Cue Card (2015) are the only horses to have doubled up after a win at Haydock during that spell, which offers some hope to Eldorado Allen and Frodon, who will bid to follow in the hoofprints of Clan Des Obeaux, Silviniaco Conti (the 2013 version) and Long Run after they were all beaten in the North-West before emerging victorious at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Envoi Allen, winner of the Ladbrokes Champion Chase on his seasonal reappearance, is taking the same route as 2019 hero Clan Des Obeaux, though Henry de Bromhead’s representative went one better than that former winner having won at Down Royal early last month.

A prep run of some description earlier in the same season has unsurprisingly been crucial, with not one winner coming to Kempton first time out for the campaign, which doesn't bode well for Royale Pagaille (taken out of Tuesday's Welsh National on Wednesday) who would be coming here fresh after a hold-up in his work during November.

The longest break was the 54 days – the thick end of two months – between Clan Des Obeaux’s Down Royal run and December 26, while the past two winners, Tornado Flyer and Frodon, both lined up just 21 days on from their respective outings in the John Durkan at Punchestown and the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree – in which they were both beaten.

The Many Clouds will be represented in this year’s race by Aintree third Ahoy Senor, whose jumping continues to be an issue.

Bravemansgame’s Charlie Hall Chase comeback is not an unusual path to take for a King George horse, with Cue Card winning both races in 2015 – he did, however, win the Betfair Chase in between Wetherby and Kempton. Bravemansgame’s stablemate Cyrname was the last Charlie Hall winner to go straight for the King George and he was pulled-up as a 5/2 shot.

Course form

Tornado Flyer and Thistlecrack have both conquered Kempton at the first time of asking in this race, but the other eight in our admittedly small sample had previously run at the venue, with five of them course winners.

They include Long Run, who won the Kauto Star Novices' Chase and the King George before landing the feature for the second time in 2012.

Bravemansgame, Frodon, Millers Bank and Royale Pagaille are the previous course winners in contention this year, while Envoi Allen, Hitman and L’Homme Presse are those to have never raced at Kempton – either over hurdles or fences.

What does that tell us?

BRAVEMANSGAME has winning course form at the track, a very respectable official rating of 164 - second only to L'Homme Presse on that score - and he's coming towards his peak as a seven-year-old, rising eight.

His 58-day break since Wetherby is a longer gap than most recent winners of this have had, but the Charlie Hall/King George double was a regular one in the 1990s thanks to the likes of Barton Bank, One Man and See More Business. Like See More Business, Bravemansgame is trained by Paul Nicholls, the man responsible for five of the 10 past winners listed below.

There's a lot to like about his profile and he is the best fit on recent trends, for all L'Homme Presse strictly has the stronger form at this stage.

• Click here to back Bravemansgame for the King George with Sky Bet

Past 10 winners and individual details

Tornado Flyer 2021

Age: 8

Official rating: 161

Days since last ran: 21

Previous race: 5th in John Durkan Chase at Punchestown

Course form: N/A

Frodon 2020

Age: 8

Official rating: 168

Days since last ran: 21

Previous race: 4th in Many Clouds Chase at Aintree

Course form: F1

Clan Des Obeaux 2019

Age: 7

Official rating: 169

Days since last ran: 54

Previous race: 2nd in Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal

Course form: 21

Clan Des Obeaux 2018

Age: 6

Official rating: 160

Days since last ran: 32

Previous race: 4th in Betfair Chase at Haydock

Course form: 2

Might Bite 2017

Age: 8

Official rating: 162

Days since last ran: 44

Previous race: WON Intermediate Chase at Sandown

Course form: 1F

Thistlecrack 2016

Age: 8

Official rating: 174h

Days since last ran: 30

Previous race: WON novices’ chase at Newbury

Course form: N/A

Cue Card 2015

Age: 9

Official rating: 172

Days since last ran: 27

Previous race: WON Betfair Chase at Haydock

Course form: 525

Silviniaco Conti 2014

Age: 8

Official rating: 174

Days since last ran: 48

Previous race: WON Betfair Chase at Haydock

Course form: 21

Silviniaco Conti 2013

Age: 7

Official rating: 173

Days since last ran: 48

Previous race: 3rd in Betfair Chase at Haydock

Course form: 2

Long Run 2012

Age: 7

Official rating: 172

Days since last ran: 32

Previous race: 2nd in Betfair Chase at Haydock

Course form: 112

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