Matt Brocklebank with key 2000 Guineas talking points

Can we take Masar’s Craven demolition literally?

Charlie Appleby did his best to warn Roaring Lion fans that Masar hadn’t missed a day’s work in the Dubai sunshine and was fighting fit heading into the bet365 Craven Stakes. It appears punters took the hint, the son of New Approach going off 7/2 having been 7/1 just a couple of days before the race, but what to make of the performance?

It was obviously seriously good, but was it so drastic that it creeps into the 'freakishly good' bracket, thereby casting some doubt over its overall merit, as well as the chance of a similar performance being reproduced less than three weeks on?

There has to be at least a hint of that.

Masar was not a freakishly good two-year-old; he won two of his five starts in 2017, displaying abundant promise, but not brilliance.

And yet his pedigree screams 'three-year-old' - his dam won the UAE Derby and his sire won the Derby - so despite a bafflingly bad run out in Meydan in March, there shouldn’t be too much surprise at his apparent improvement.

Racing Post Trophy hero Roaring Lion ran nowhere near his 118 figure in the Craven, but 99-rated runner-up White Mocha is the one the handicappers have used to frame the form, nudging the runner-up 1lb and the nine-length winner up 6lb to 118.

So Masar looks a big player on merit based on that single sparkling performance, his pedigree, and the potential displayed last year.

He's also race-fit, he has handled the track with aplomb and his trainer could hardly have started the year any better.

One could be forgiven for thinking it's going to take something special to beat the Godolphin runner, but the Guineas is a special kind of race, with a special kind of history, and Masar isn't the only one with more to offer.

Just how good is Elarqam right now?

It’s been a long time between drinks for Mark Johnston and while the Middleham trainer is still gasping at the Newmarket bar awaiting his next 2000 Guineas winner - having saddled Mister Baileys to victory in 1994 - he may never get a better chance than this year.

That might seem like a lot of expectation to heap on a twice-raced, 112-rated colt without a prep run under his belt, but Johnston and son, Charlie, clearly don’t use the phrases "we know he’s good enough" and "he's really come alive this spring" without due care and attention.

If Masar's bloodlines get pedigree-obsessives hot under the collar then Elarqam is something akin to the offspring of Michael Douglas and Catherine Zeta-Jones.

Sired by Frankel out of Johnston's 2004 1000 Guineas heroine Attraction, it's no wonder there were relieved faces all round at York after the 1.6million guineas purchase made a winning debut in September.

It was decided immediately after a subsequent two and a quarter-length victory in Newmarket’s Group Three Summerville Stakes that he'd next line up on May 5 2018, and bar missing an intended gallop at a washed-out Pontefract, it appears everything has gone smoothly in the relatively lengthy build-up.

One public leg-stretch up the Rowley Mile two days before Masar’s romp at the Craven meeting left connections more than satisfied, which isn’t necessarily the case with some scribbling onlookers, who were denied the names of Elarqam’s work companions.

They have since been revealed – one of which was the 83-rated Kit Marlowe – though as Johnston junior stressed on RUK’s Luck On Sunday programme, it was largely irrelevant given how the public gallop was always going to play out.

So in brief, we don't know exactly how good Elarqam is. But we do know he was quality over seven furlongs at two, and we can assume in all probability on breeding and trainer reputation that he’ll be at least as good over further at three.

It'll be a big shock if he's not even more effective over the new trip of a mile and, with fitness assured, the only question remains is 'will he be streetwise enough?'.

Runners from Kingsley House very rarely lack in that department.

How strong in the Ballydoyle challenge?

Could it be any stronger? Three runners: a Group One winner, a Group Two winner, and a speedy son of Scat Daddy to help tee it all up.

Aidan O'Brien has won the 2000 Guineas on eight previous occasions and at the time of writing, given the current best available prices, he's roughly even money to win it again on Saturday.

So for all the chat elsewhere, it's likely that the master of Ballydoyle rocks up at Newmarket and gets the European Classic campaign off to the best possible start.

O'Brien won four of the five British Classics last year.

Churchill, Winter, Wings Of Eagles, Capri. A remarkable feat amidst a ridiculously successful 2017.

So what to make of this lot.

Gustav Klimt finds himself the shortest in the betting, and the outright market leader, by virtue of showing his hand at Leopardstown last month.

He'd been off since last July when he'd somehow managed to win the Superlative Stakes after a troubled run, and he knuckled down well to beat Imaging and punch his ticket for Newmarket's Rowley Mile this weekend.

He's a stalker and a swooper, and he'll love both the forecast dry conditions and likely strong pace.

But there's a standout issue with him and, somewhat perversely, it's the fact he's had a prep.

King Of Kings, Rock Of Gibraltar, Footstepsinthesand, George Washington, Henrythenavigator, Camelot, Gleneagles, Churchill. O'Brien's eight Guineas winners all won first time out for the season.

Murillo, also entered in the Palace House Stakes over five furlongs, may well be sacrificed at the head of affairs. Which leaves Saxon Warrior.

There are mixed messages from his Racing Post Trophy form - Chilean and Merlin's Magic: the good, Roaring Lion and The Pentagon: the bad, Seahenge: the ugly.

But after providing the trainer with his record-breaking 26th top-level winner in a single season, this horse obviously holds a special place in O'Brien's heart and the impeccably-bred colt is bound to be tuned up for his first step on the Classic ladder.

There's no way O'Brien can live up to last year's achievements, is there.

Triple Crown, anyone?

How many more chances for Expert Eye?

If adopting the age-old punting stance of prioritising eyes over ears as the main source of information, then Sir Michael Stoute's 2000 Guineas hope would be a long way down the shortlist.

He completely bombed out when hot favourite for the Dewhurst Stakes on his only previous Newmarket outing and he was beaten again in what didn’t look the hottest ever renewal of Newbury’s Greenham Stakes on his comeback run.

He's had issues with the stalls, can pull ferociously hard, something he demonstrated again in the Greenham, and there must be a chance he'll be more Commonwealth Cup than St James’s Palace when Royal Ascot rolls into view in seven weeks' time.

But it's not all bad.

It can be costly to spend too much time looking back rather than forward when it comes to the crunch of a Classic, but Expert Eye has seemingly had excuses in just two starts since his Qatar Vintage Stakes victory at Glorious Goodwood.

And it wasn’t just a run-of-the-mill Vintage victory. After a debut win, Expert Eye stepped up to Group Two level and promptly blew his rivals away on the bridle, before quickening decisively to win by four and a half lengths.

The form is basically bombproof, the race throwing up six winners and six placed from a total of 32 subsequent runners - Mildenberger and James Garfield among the most notable.

So has Newbury victor James Garfield improved enormously, or was the Greenham just a case of Stoute feeling his way back into action with a horse who clearly didn’t show his true ability on the big day that mattered most last year?

Given the way the yard operates, it's understandable to be leaning towards the latter, and improvement from that return effort should be forthcoming.

Whether that's over a mile back at Newmarket is doubtful, but Expert Eye is surely worth more chances to prove himself a top-class talent, in the right circumstances.

Sky Bet Non-Runner No Bet on the QIPCO 2000 Guineas

Anything from left field in the 2018 pack?

It's rare that a Coventry Stakes winner doesn’t get much attention ahead of the following year's 2000 Guineas and Rajasinghe shouldn’t be judged too harshly on his two no-shows in Group One company at the end of the year.

He was returning from 79 days off on ground easier than he cares for when no threat to U S Navy Flag in the Middle Park Stakes and his Del Mar destiny was effectively written when drawn in gate 14 at the start of Breeders' Cup week.

Rajasinghe beat Headway a head in the Coventry, with Murillo, Nebo and U S Navy Flag also taken care of, and it's slightly surprising to see him available at such a big price.

Related links

• Latest Sky Bet odds and offers
• Latest racecards and video form
• Aidan O'Brien: Fate of the favourites
• Sky Bet Price Boost: Guineas double
• 2000 Guineas: Matt's Stats guide
• 2000 Guineas horse-by-horse guide
• 1000 Guineas horse-by-horse guide
• Pedigree Pointers: 2000 Guineas
• Key talking points: 2000 Guineas
• Alex Hammond: On the Guineas
• Ed Chamberlin: On the Guineas