Antepost Value Bet tips: Sunday, December 26
1pt e.w. Royale Pagaille in Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at 20/1 (General)
Three weeks out and it has the makings of a classic Ladbrokes King George VI Chase.
The past two winners, last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup hero and a bunch of potential improvers - from both sides of the Irish Sea, in a refreshing twist - could line up at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Clan Des Obeaux, the winner in 2018 and 2019, bids to regain his title and there are plenty of examples of horses doing just that in this race over the years, including the likes of Desert Orchid, See More Business, Kauto Star and Long Run.
Whether he’s in that sort of company remains to be seen but he’s pretty good when right on song.
Last season started on a disappointing note for Paul Nicholls’ charge, who was beaten in the Betfair Chase before letting favourite backers down at Kempton over Christmas. He really bucked his ideas up towards the end of last year, however, and the fitting of cheekpieces saw him produce some of his best ever form when successful at Aintree and Punchestown.
Going to Ireland and beating Al Boum Photo, Fakir D’Oudaries and Kemboy in their own back yard was no mean feat, especially in the context of the Cheltenham Festival where Irish horses totally dominated the Gold Cup (and Ryanair Chase for that matter).
He’s still only a nine-year-old and is clearly a force to be reckoned with in the sheepskin headgear, but he doesn’t appeal much right now as the general 11/4 market leader as this could easily be a stronger King George than the last three.
For that reason I’m happy to leave 2020 hero Frodon alone too, though he looked as good as ever when holding Galvin at bay on his Down Royal comeback.
Allaho was clipped a couple of points to around 8/1 after winning Sunday's John Durkan at Punchestown, with Asterion Forlonge - in with every chance and seemingly going better than anything else before unseating Bryan Cooper - effectively halved in price to 10/1 despite failing to complete.
That's now three falls/unseats for the talented grey from just eight chase starts and such a record has to be a massive concern at Kempton. I'd be surprised if he and Allaho both turned up, and it could easily be the case that neither makes the trip across at Christmas.
Minella Indo is consequently expected to lead the charge for Ireland. The very best Irish-trained horses have been conspicuous by their absence here in recent years but Henry De Bromhead has set his stall out in Britain this season, already winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock with A Plus Tard and having a good crack at races like the Ladbrokes Trophy (Eklat De Rire) and Becher Chase (Chris’s Dream) as well.
Minella Indo was rusty at Down Royal and it’s safe to expect a fair level of improvement on that first outing of the season, and yet he looked so obviously well suited to the demands of Cheltenham in March that it’s hard to envisage him being quite so effective around this track.
He has a right-handed, Grade One defeat of Allaho on his CV but that was from their novice hurdle days and nearly all of his best chase form is going the other way, on undulating tracks like Navan.
I can let him go at 5/1 at this stage as well and when it comes to unearthing a spot of early value then I’d suggest punters look no further than ROYALE PAGAILLE.
He very much falls into the aforementioned ‘potential improver’ bracket as he’s still just seven years of age and I was encouraged by his first run of the season, despite being battered 22 lengths by A Plus Tard, who reportedly stays at home in a bid to retain his Savills Chase crown.
People are nearly always too quick to anoint the up-and-coming chasers but we’re all occasionally guilty of writing them off a little too swiftly as well, and Royale Pagaille has almost had a foot in both camps in the space of just a year.
He went off 14/1 as a second-season novice in the Gold Cup in the spring, following three pretty devastating wins earlier in the season, and returned from Cheltenham lame having been a well-beaten sixth.
A Plus Tard put Venetia Williams’ horse in his place at Haydock last month and suddenly he seems to have been written off a top-level performer, but again he came back with a cut to a leg and I’m not totally convinced that was the best Royale Pagaille could offer.
It wasn’t exactly a disastrous start to the new campaign, barring the superficial injury, and it’s sometimes worth taking the wide margins between horses at Haydock with a pinch of salt.
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He was silky-smooth around the King George course and distance in a handicap last Christmas (free replay above), proving in a different league completely to his rivals that day, before bolting up off a mark of 156 in the Peter Marsh at Haydock, and getting back to Kempton on some proper winter ground will both be really positive factors.
The physical setback sustained in the Betfair Chase is reportedly on the mend and his yard could hardly be in better form after landing the Ladbrokes Trophy and a bunch of other nice races in recent weeks, so as potential rivals fall by the wayside in the build-up to Boxing Day getting Royale Pagaille on side at 20/1 is hopefully going to look a reasonable bit of business.
Published at 1600 GMT on 05/12/21
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