It's been a fine start to the year for Matt Brocklebank's long-standing column - log-in for free with your Sporting Life, ITV7 or Sky Bet account to check out the latest Saturday preview and big-priced tips.
Value Bet tips: Saturday February 22
1.5pts e.w. Gaboriot in 2.10 Newcastle at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
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Kempton’s Saturday card has failed to attract some of the big guns who held entries at the start of the week, but with three Grade 2s and three decent handicaps it should provide plenty of entertainment nevertheless.
The slight problem I have from a punting point of view is that the ground, officially 'good, good to soft in places' with not a huge amount of rain in the forecast, might still be on the lively side and there are a few key players who don’t look absolutely guaranteed to line up despite having been declared, including in the big betting highlight - the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase.
Lowry’s Bar is a progressive seven-year-old with a fair future but are connections going to be mad keen to run him here on a relatively dry surface when they can be pretty sure he’ll have more suitable conditions in the Ultima on day one at the Cheltenham Festival next month?
Let's hope he stands his ground as it’ll be a poorer race without him and it almost goes without saying that I think his chances are outstanding, particularly if the forecast showers are a little more substantial than anticipated.
Those on the lookout for a couple at bigger prices ought to consider the Lucinda Russell-trained Corrigeen Rock, who seems to have been crying out for a step up to three miles for a while now and has some good course form in the book, as well as Dan Skelton’s Heltenham.
The latter represents the same owners’ Flegmatik, who has run well in the past two editions of this race, and is another stepping out in trip with a little bit of potential up his sleeve.
Boasting a very respectable strike-rate of 5-14 over fences, Heltenham was narrowly denied in the two and a half-mile handicap chase on this card 12 months ago, before landing the Greatwood Gold Cup and another nice pot at Newbury later in March.
He’s been well held in four subsequent outings – two last April and another couple just before the turn of the year – and is now back down to his last winning mark of 136. Harry Skelton takes over from Ciaran Gethings which looks a boost, but ultimately he's another one who would surely prefer some genuine cut in the ground to show his true colours, and I can’t quite recommend him, especially as his odds were rapidly drying up at the time of publication.
The Pendil Novices' Chase looks trappy and it's a similar story in the Dovecote, so perhaps the best bet is up at Newcastle in the Virgin Bet Eider Handicap Chase over four miles and a furlong. The ground is 'good to soft, soft in places' in the north east and we have a full field of 18 in this.
O'Connell is on a roll and blindingly obvious near the head of the market but there's proper depth to the race this year and, at longer odds and with extra places being dangled, I like the look of GABORIOT for one of the most upwardly-mobile training operations in the country – that of Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero.
They seem particularly adept when it comes to pumping stamina into their runners, the likes of Gesskille and Grand National-bound Iroko two of the yard’s biggest success stories to date, and Gaboriot appears to have unfinished business in marathon races.
In fact, his sole start at four miles to date produced a gallant victory in a soft-ground Hunters’ Chase at Cheltenham last May, and he must be made of pretty stern stuff as the horse followed up at Carlisle less than a month later too.
This season he’s been pitched back into regular handicap chase company and while he’s not quite built on a highly promising comeback third to King Turgeon in the Grand Sefton at Aintree, he probably found himself a bit too far back early on when sent off 5/2 favourite at Doncaster on his next start.
Last time at Haydock, with the cheekpieces left off for some reason, he ran another solid if unspectacular race under 7lb claimer Ben Smith, but I like the return of last year’s Eider-winning jockey Henry Brooke to the saddle this weekend, and he’s evidently one of those horses who isn’t bothered about underfoot conditions as he’s won a couple of times on good ground in the past too.
Gaboriot comes out quite well on the adjusted Timeform ratings here, just 3lb shy of the top-rated Choosethenews, and it's no shock to see the headgear return for what is the most valuable race he's ever contested in Britain (ran in a few Graded events in France in his youth).
They won't go overly quick early on in this and you do need a spot of luck when it comes to track position, but this horse is basically made for 'hunting' around most of the way before making his move on the final circuit, and I think the double-figure odds are more than fair and merit a decent each-way dig.
Temperatures admittedly seem to be on the up but it still feels a little early in the year for me to be having a proper look at the Flat action. Having said that, ITV are showing two races from Southwell and Tees Spirit could be worth a second look in the opening BetUK Hever Sprint Stakes.
He's got stacks to find with Marshman and Diligent Harry, who are both race-fit, but don't underestimate this seven-year-old's record when fresh as his last four runs following 100 days or more away from the track have produced form figures of 1161.
If there wasn't quite so much early pace in this line-up, including the two aforementioned market principals, Adrian Nicholls' horse might have made it onto the staking plan as well but as it is I'm happy to keep my powder dry other than in the Eider.
Published at 1600 GMT on 21/02/25
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