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Kelso tips: Best value bets for Saturday March 5
Value Bet tips: Saturday March 5
1pt win Dingo Dollar in 2.40 Kelso at 15/2 (General)
1pt win Balko Saint in 3.15 Kelso at 12/1 (General)
0.5pts win Some Reign in 3.15 Kelso at 33/1 (bet365)
Two respectable Grand National trials feature on a busy Saturday ITV Racing schedule and DINGO DOLLAR looks a good bet to enhance his Aintree credentials in Kelso’s Listed bet365 Premier Chase.
I’ve started to warm to Sandy Thomson’s runner as a legitimate contender for the big one next month, especially after his place in the line-up was effectively secured following the latest forfeit stage, and it’s not hard to see him teeing up a National tilt in really positive fashion.
That’s not only down to Dingo Dollar’s progressive form since switching yards from Alan King a couple of seasons ago, but also the fact the market leaders look really unreliable - Espoir De Romay having been a disappointing favourite on his seasonal return at Carlisle and not sighted since, and Itchy Feet looking borderline trip-less these days.
Nuts Well and Sky Bet Chase winner Windsor Avenue have penalties to carry which could leave on-song course regular Big River as the main danger, but Dingo Dollar has stronger form in the book thanks to his Scottish Grand National second last April and, following a comeback spin here in October, he was close to that Ayr form again when third behind Gold Cup-bound Aye Right in the Rehearsal at Newcastle.
He’s had a winter break since but has won a couple of times when fresh in the past including on his debut for Thomson at Newcastle last spring and, while genuine spring ground would obviously have been preferable, he has won on soft and the recent rain will at least help make this small-field event a thorough test of stamina.
Williams charge to spring a surprise
The bet365 Morebattle Hurdle is also appealing from a punting front.
Metier's trainer Harry Fry will be rubbing his hands together at the prospect of more rain to come in Scotland as he showed just how effective he can be in testing conditions when beating Gowell Road at Lingfield last time. However, he has been hit with a 7lb rise which looks meaty enough and there's a bit more depth to this field anyway.
Buveur D’Air is reportedly having a prep run before another shot at the Grade One over two and a half at Aintree and I can’t imagine the dual Champion Hurdle winner being absolutely razor-sharp for his comeback after his latest injury layoff. The form of the yard remains a bit of a worry too as eight Henderson horses have pulled-up in the last couple of weeks which must sound a note of caution.
Eyes are instinctively drawn to Jessica Harrington's Autumn Evening who looked to get to the front a little too soon when ending up third in the big two-mile handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. However, the Irish handicapper subsequently raised him 2lb and the BHA assessors have whacked another 7lb on top of that so it's hard to believe he's thrown in off 147.
Ready preference at the odds is for the other five-year-old in the race, BALKO SAINT, representing Jane Williams who has been ticking over nicely all season and has a perfect 2-2 record with hurdlers at Kelso.
Balko Saint ran a respectable race when finishing mid-pack in last year's Fred Winter, a very good edition of the Festival juvenile handicap with the winner going on to take a Grade One at Punchestown and the likes of Saint Sam and Riviere D'etel among the vanquished.
Balko Saint has since run four times and three of them have been in France including a Compiegne win in May and a complete no-show on chasing debut at Clairefontaine first time back in September.
He was really disappointing at Compiegne last time but had previously won well in a little novices' hurdle at Kempton, beating subsequent Lanzarote Hurdle winner Cobblers Dream into third. On that evidence he should have plenty of room for manoeuvre from his current mark of 133 and he's proven on ground varying from good to heavy.
He'll get a good pace to chase here and it's not hard to see him picking up the pieces under Chester Williams whose 3lb claim will come in handy.
I’m also casting the net even further in the same race and will have a tentative dart on the 11-year-old SOME REIGN, who looks to have become a bit of a law unto himself having been unruly and refused to line up/jump off on his two most recent racecourse visits.
That's seriously off-putting but does appear well factored into his huge odds so it's tempting to give him a third and final chance. On the plus side, Some Reign's trainer Rose Dobbin tends to have winners in small clusters and it looks like the yard is on one of its hotter streaks after two winners – plus a couple of near-misses at long odds which is always a good sign – within the past fortnight.
Some Reign was in winning form when last consenting to jump off and while it came over fences at Musselburgh back in October, what was most striking about that effort was that it probably represented a career-best performance.
After travelling strongly, he ultimately skipped clear of a decent yardstick in Gold De Bois (beaten just three lengths by Funambule Sivola at Doncaster recently) between the final couple of obstacles before winning by five and a half lengths.
Some Reign's been raised to a mark of 137 in that sphere but gets in here back over hurdles off 132 (2lb lower than the tidy Musselburgh success) and it could turn out to be an inspired piece of placement.
This horse has bags of Kelso experience and some really useful course form to boot (career record at the track in bumpers, hurdles and chases reads 2213223), while he put in his best performance last season when winning at Carlisle following 97 days away.
Given the stable form I’d expect him to be fighting fit on his return from a similar sort of layoff and the ground won't bother him.
King the best bet on Doncaster card
Cloth Cap is most likely the other horse on trial for the Grand National and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares under top weight in the Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster having won the Kelso race on this day prior to going off favourite at Aintree last April.
There have been one or two signs he’s getting back on track this season following a summer breathing operation and I wouldn’t read too much into his refusing at the last when clearly tired at Ascot in December. He’ll appreciate getting back on a left-handed circuit, though the heavy rain through Thursday night into Friday wasn't in his favour.
The one on Town Moor I almost couldn't resist is King D'Argent in the Virgin Bet Handicap Chase. He was only fifth in the aforementioned course handicap won by subsequent Game Spirit scorer Funambule Sivola last time and he has a little over three lengths to find with the reopposing runner-up The Big Bite.
However, Dan Skelton’s horse is 2lb better off now having been dropped to what is the lowest mark he’ll have run off all season. Now only 3lb higher than when winning in good style from 135 at Warwick last March, I reckon the last run (his first for 62 days) might just set the seven-year-old up for a productive couple of months.
The one stumbling block is his price which was just getting shorter and shorter at the time of publication and he's clearly not been missed despite the wet weather which is probably not ideal for him either.
Trust in Nicholls with well-treated chaser
Paul Nicholls is the master when it comes to the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase and Newbury’s weekend feature looks best left to the champion trainer once more.
There has been a lot of talk this week of British horses being afforded fairly swift respite from the jumps assessors as part of a wider evaluation and Dolos and Tamaroc Du Mathan – both trained by Nicholls and both owned by the de la Hey family, appear prime examples.
Dolos was officially rated 157 at the beginning of the campaign and, after three poor runs, readily won his favourite race at Sandown last month from a mark a full stone lower.
Tamaroc Du Mathan, who was officially rated 150 when unseating two-out in a novice event won by Allmankind at Ayr last April, is now down 8lb to 142 after just the two efforts so far this term. He again failed to finish behind Allmankind first time back when pulling up in the Old Roan at Aintree, but I don’t think he shaped too badly back at two miles behind his stablemate Dolos at Sandown last time.
Breathing issues have obviously blighted the horse throughout his career but he underwent another operation prior to the last run which Nicholls feels will bring him on massively and he’s still young. He’s also really classy on his day, highlighted by his second to Shishkin, which came on soft ground, and the subsequent Pendil victory last year.
He looks well set for a return to two and a half miles, is clearly well handicapped, while he also seems to like it here from what little evidence we have as he was a close fifth in the 2020 Betfair Hurdle on his only previous visit to Newbury. I was fairly happy to chance him on the going until his price crashed from 15/2 to 9/2 so it's another 'thanks, but no thanks' at the current odds.
Published at 1600 GMT on 04/03/22
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