Kelso, Newbury & Doncaster tips: Best value bets for Saturday March 4

Value Bet tips: Saturday, March 4

1pt e.w. Clear White Light in 1.50 Kelso at 20/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt win Hoe Joly Smoke in 2.25 Kelso at 10/1 (William Hill)

1pt win Lord Baddesley in 2.45 Newbury at 5/1 (bet365)

1pt win Windsor Avenue in 3.15 Doncaster at 10/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Follow the Light if taking on Mctigue

There's thinking outside the box, and then there's Emmet Mullins who this weekend aims his four-year-old Mctigue at the valuable bet365 Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso.

The winner of this event stands to land a £100,000 bonus if able to follow up in any race at the Cheltenham Festival – a double the same ultra-shrewd trainer pulled off with The Shunter a couple of years ago – and Mctigue isn’t short of options at the big meeting, having been given top weight in the Boodles Fred Winter at the midweek unveiling of the Festival handicaps.

He's top of the shop in that race by some way and, as he can’t carry more than the already allotted 11-12, he’d escape any form of penalty or weight rise if successful at Kelso. That wouldn’t be the case in the Coral Cup or the Martin Pipe, although connections do still have the option of the Triumph Hurdle as well and on his early-season form in France, when beating a bunch of subsequent high-class winners in a Grade 2 juvenile hurdle at Auteuil, he wouldn’t be completely out of place in the Grade 1 at Cheltenham.

Obvious positives aside, Mullins’ horses aren’t exactly being missed by the layers these days and after all we’re dealing with a horse who has beaten just four horses home in his last two starts combined.

It didn’t quite work out for Mullins and current go-to jockey Donagh Meyler with Filey Bay having to settle for second in the Betfair Hurdle a few weeks back and the third from that Newbury race – Teddy Blue – has to be afforded massive respect here.

He was 3lb wrong in the Betfair, running under a 5lb penalty for winning his maiden hurdle at Lingfield on January 31, and gets to compete from his correct mark (130) on this occasion, with capable 5lb Caoilin Quinn maintaining the partnership.

There’s not a whole lot of juice in his price either, unfortunately, likewise Deere Mark who was taken out at Newbury on account of the ground but looks to be sitting on a very dangerous mark and represents a trainer who can do very little wrong at present.

It’s not hard to see Colonel Mustard putting up a big performance though I’m not convinced drying ground will suit him, or Dan Skelton's lightly raced import L’Eau Du Sud who has been getting better with every start in the UK and looks to have been laid out for something like this prize.

Instead, I'm going to try to take full advantage of the extra places on offer with Sky Bet and have a small each-way dart at outsider CLEAR WHITE LIGHT in the first-time blinkers.

Perhaps the addition of headgear is a reaction to him seemingly struggling to get the job done at a short price in a lesser race at Newcastle last time but, on reflection, I thought he toughed it out pretty well considering he was giving the thick end of two stone in weight to the runner-up (including that one’s jockey’s 8lb claim), himself an improving six-year-old.

Clear White Light, a late-maturing Dubawi in the extreme, isn’t a huge horse by any means and I’m not sure we saw the best of him lumping 12-0 around Gosforth Park last month, whereas he could flourish in this scenario as he’s receiving weight from just about everything.

The drop back in trip is a bit of a question mark but the big field and ‘very strong’ pace predicted by Timeform on account of five out-and-out pace setters should help set things up for those who stay a bit further anyway.

Not with Adrian Keatley long, the beautifully-bred seven-year-old will also be ideally suited to underfoot conditions this weekend and he's definitely going the right way for this yard, winning two of his four starts since starting out at Wetherby on Boxing Day.

He's only gone up 10lb for the two wins and could yet climb the ranks higher still if the blinkers spark a bit more improvement.

Smoke showing all the right signals

Mullins unleashes smart bumper performer Feronily over jumps for the first time in the Grade 2 bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle, which looks a bit of a statement of intent. If he’s going to lose his novice status this season then one would imagine it’ll be in a quality race as they won’t want to blow it for loose change with this £45,000 point-to-point purchase.

He lacks the experience of some, though, and looks there to be shot at given he’s priced up so defensively, just behind market leader Nemean Lion.

Dan Skelton won this race with My Drogo in 2021 and I’m inclined to think HOE JOLY SMOKE could be quite classy once his jumping becomes a little slicker. It’s let him down a touch to this point, but he still bustled up subsequent Grade 2 winner Makin’yourmindup first time out at Chepstow (2m3f) in October and the drop back to two miles caught him out there last month.

He still ran very well in third (staying on at the line) after the winner set a stop-start gallop from the off, and I reckon he’ll really kick on back up in trip this spring. A bit of rain wouldn’t have gone amiss for Hoe Joly Smoke, but there’s enough to go on otherwise and he merits a bet at 8/1 or bigger.

Lord to kick on with front-running tactics

Course specialists Paint The Dream and Zanza are absolutely brilliant around Newbury but I couldn’t fancy either of them defying their current marks (158) in the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase, and the bet has to be LORD BADDESLEY.

Representing Betfair Hurdle-winning trainer Chris Gordon, he’s having his second bite of the cherry as a novice chaser after pulling up on his sole start in this sphere a couple of seasons ago.

He's not looked the strongest stayer in the past but put everything together when opening his account over fences over the extended two miles and three furlongs at Plumpton last time and a 6lb rise doesn’t look harsh at all.

He's technically 1lb out of the handicap here but the least exposed runner in the field, will love the good ground and it looks highly significant Tom Cannon is sweating down to his minimum weight to keep the ride.

Cannon got a good tune out of the selection last time and they might just get the run of the race here with most of the others better when held up off a strong gallop. Lord Baddesley can set the tempo and he’ll take plenty of passing.

Windsor to win again at Doncaster

At Doncaster, the Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase takes centre stage and, on the face of it, Sky Bet Chase winner Cooper's Cross doesn’t look too harshly handicapped off 5lb higher as he’s clearly going the right way. The slight quibble I’d have with him is that this race is over another couple of furlongs and he doesn’t look to be crying out for such an extreme test of stamina.

Sky Bet Chase fourth – and 2022 winner – WINDSOR AVENUE does shape like an out-and-out stayer these days and, having been eased 2lb, he's 7lb better off with the winner.

Granted, he was beaten 15 and a half lengths by Cooper's Cross at the end of January but it was a definite step back in the right direction after pulling up at Wetherby on Boxing Day and he tends to travel well on better ground.

His trainer Brian Ellison has had two winners from his last five runners (prior to sole starter for the yard at Newcastle on Friday night) and could just be coming into a bit of form. Around the 10/1 mark, stable star Windsor Avenue rates a clear value alternative to the favourite on Saturday.

Preview posted at 1530 GMT on 03/03/23

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