July Cup analysis: David Ord on an open sprinting division
By David Ord
10:15 · SUN July 14, 2024
David Ord ponders the state of play in the sprinting division after Mill Stream's My Pension Expert July Cup success.
Seven days on from a Coral-Eclipse that posed more questions than it answered, it's hard not to walk away from the My Pension Expert July Cup with similar feelings.
We were looking forward to a six-furlong head to head between Inisherin and Vandeek which would provide some clarity towards the pecking order in the sprint division.
After all, the upwardly mobile Inisherin looked to have laid down a significant marker with his runaway success in the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot while Vandeek, brushed aside by this rival in the Sandy Lane on his sole run this year, was representing a resurgent yard and if in the form that made him the fastest two-year-old on these shores in 2023, well we could see fireworks.
But this was a finish fought out between the second and third in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, a pair of four-year-olds who were each chasing a first top-level victory.
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And that went to Ascot third Mill Stream, a teak-tough and reliable performer who probably only needed to run close to the level he had when winning the Duke Of York to get the better of Swingalong, making up a length-and-a-quarter and change on that rival in the process.
He did so under a peach of a William Buick ride, producing a sustained challenge to wear down the runner-up in the closing stages.
I say ‘only’ – he’s clearly very good, and very fast. A Timeform master rating of 118 heading to Newmarket might get a little bump and push him into the 120s on Monday morning. With cut in the ground he’s going to be a player in the remaining top-flight, six-furlong sprints.
So will Swingalong, who Karl Burke felt wasn’t done any favours by rain earlier the week.
But what of the vanquished? Where now for Inisherin and Vandeek?
The former was sent off a very well backed 11/8 favourite but having taken a prominent pitch in the group racing towards the stands’ side, was unable to hold it as the tempo increased from the two-furlong pole.
It looked like the sharper test posed by the July Course had caught him out after all, the way he plugged on into fifth underlining that impression given for a stride or two he threatened to drop right out.
Earlier in the week Kevin Ryan had mused that Inisherin was a horse who will stay further in the future, possibly the mile over which he was sixth in the 2000 Guineas while still learning his trade in the spring.
But the Sandy Lane and Ascot performances had looked to be those of a top-notch sprinter and he must be worth another chance to prove it.
The good news is the next two obvious targets are at Haydock and Ascot, the Sprint Cup and QIPCO British Champions Sprint. The battle may be lost but not the war yet.
And Vandeek? Well, this was a step in the right direction, but again the finishing effort wasn’t quite what it promised to be.
He was just about last off the bridle but racing on right-hand flank of the field, away from the protagonists, never looked like finding the finishing effort required to get to them.
It’s hard to blame the ground, given the conditions he ploughed through to win the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood last season, so connections have much to ponder. But their initial reaction was one of relief: they have proof the colt has trained on and a platform to work from.
I wondered, having seen how he went through the race, whether they might fancy dropping back to five in the Nunthorpe and see if he can hold onto the leaders long enough to perhaps pick up the pieces late.
But the initial temptation it seems is to go the other way, up in trip for the Prix Maurice de Gheest and maybe even to seven for the Sky Bet City Of York Stakes in August, although the Sprint Cup and Ascot are also firmly in the mix too.
Next stop Haydock then when much of the same cast will reassemble. Who would you make favourite? It’s still Inisherin for me and the bookmakers have the two who topped the July Cup market in the same spots for the September showpiece, but at 6/1 and 7/1 not 11/8.
That’s what Saturday’s race has done. It’s all up for grabs now.
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