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Ben Linfoot's Saturday pre-race analysis for the feature action at Ascot
Ben Linfoot assesses the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday and the Betfair Exchange Trophy with Richard Johnson and David Pipe under the spotlight.
Paisley has it all to do to see off improving Thyme
- Porsche Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1), 2.25 Ascot
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It all began for Richard Johnson with a staying hurdler. His beaming smile aboard Anzum, who had just won the Bonusprint Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 1999, said everything.
A first success on the big stage, a first of what now stands at 22 Festival wins. And it came as a shock, too, the 40/1 chance sinking the red-hot Aidan O’Brien-trained favourite, Le Coudray, in the shadows of the post.
Fast forward 21 years to Newbury last month and Johnson’s beaming smile just about crept outwards from the obligatory mask as he steered another staying hurdler to big-race victory. I’m not saying retirement is imminent for the 43-year-old, but there could be a certain symmetry regarding the notable bookends of Johnson’s career if Thyme Hill goes and does an Anzum in March.
Plenty of the chat after the Grade Two Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle surrounded the performance of Paisley Park in second, a horse who has already won the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. It was great to see Emma Lavelle’s eight-year-old bounce back to form, of course, after his flop at this year’s Festival, and he did give Thyme Hill 3lb, but my eye was drawn more to the winner, who did it ever so easily with Johnson only having to give him the merest of tickles with the whip to ensure the win.
This was a horse having just the eighth run of his career, his fifth start over hurdles, and his only defeat over timber came when he was an unlucky in-running fourth in a red-hot renewal of the Albert Bartlett at the Festival. Only six, there is plenty more to come from him and I’m surprised he’s not outright favourite to land Grade One Long Walk glory on Saturday.
His Long Distance Hurdle success came on good ground, but we know he loves it soft after his performances as a novice and tactically this could pan out well for him, too. There isn’t loads of pace in there by any means, something that could inconvenience his main rivals Paisley Park and Main Fact, with only The Worlds End and the same owners’ Portush Ted in there who you would consider to be front-runners. They ain’t gonna cut each other’s throats.
Thyme Hill sat just off the pace at Newbury and such stalking tactics look the way forward for Johnson here. He could well have a positional advantage from an early stage and if he quickens like he did after the last at Newbury his rivals will have it all to do to catch him in the Ascot straight.
Hobbs really struggled to get going in the immediate months after the resumption of jumps racing in July, with his 9% strike-rates in September and October notably low compared to previous years, but things began to turn a corner in November with Thyme Hill’s Newbury win the perfect pick-me-up.
Since then the stable has hit top gear and December is already his best month winners-wise since January. The Hobbs yard is now in red-hot nick.
That will give confidence to Johnson who can draw on his own success stories in this race for further inspiration. He’s won this race four times in the past, with Mighty Man in 2006, with Reve De Sivola twice in 2012 and 2013, and with the aforementioned Anzum who got the ball rolling in 1999. Johnson’s smile is sure to be a wide one if Thyme Hill can make it a fabulous five.
Pipe goes pot hunting with Fred Winter second
- Betfair Exchange Trophy (Handicap Hurdle), 3.35 Ascot
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It’s not all about Thyme Hill and Paisley Park in the Long Walk and in Main Fact David Pipe has one of the stories of the season as he goes for his 10th successive victory in a row.
How high can this horse climb? It’s anyone’s guess and it would be a brave man to rule him out of anything, but my take is that if he is to succeed at Grade One level it will be when the tempo of the race is akin to that of a big-field handicap – and I doubt that will be the case on Saturday.
The potential lack of pace in the race discussed above is a negative for Main Fact, and while the rain and very testing ground looks in his favour it remains to be seen if he can come through the field like he did at Haydock and secure another remarkable win.
If the Long Walk is slowly run, I doubt that will be the case in the concluding Betfair Exchange Trophy, with Not So Sleepy, Botox Has, Kid Commander and Master Debonair all likely to be helping force the pace from prominent pitches.
A strong-staying two-miler is what’s required here and while you might’ve thought Main Fact could be that type of horse a few months ago, Pipe does look to have an interesting super sub now his new stable star has bigger fish to fry.
Step forward NIGHT EDITION, a four-year-old Authorized gelding who was last seen finishing runner-up in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival, his one-length second to Aramax from off the pace a fine effort on just his fourth hurdles start and he only went up 2lb for it.
It has to be said, the Fred Winter could hardly have worked out much worse, but Pipe has kept his powder dry with Night Edition, as he hasn’t run since Cheltenham, and it’s fascinating he’s pitched into a race as deep as this for his seasonal debut.
Pipe last won this race with Acambo, another seasonal debutant, back in 2006, the same year he took over the licence from his father, Martin, but that success was just the start of a love affair with this December Ascot meeting as it has yielded 12 victories from 58 runners at 21% for the Pond House yard in those last 15 years.
The highlight was Lough Derg in the Long Walk, the shortest-priced winner Tamarinbleu in the graduation chase at 10/11. And then there was Vodka Bleu in the Silver Cup, Our Father and Bygones Sovereign in the same handicap hurdle, Seven Nation Army, Eden Du Houx and Israel Champ in the same Listed bumper.
Yes, this has very much been a productive meeting for the Pipe yard. It won’t surprise anyone that Martin Pipe excelled at this meeting, too, with Deano’s Beano winning the Long Walk in 2002, while there were Silver Cups for Tresor De Mai, Shooting Light and Horus, as well.
And if David Pipe’s Main Fact can’t deliver in the Grade One, perhaps his Night Edition, flying ever-so-slightly under the radar, can land the biggest pot on the card – the closing handicap being worth £11k more to the winner than the day’s feature.
History tells us it’s the Pipes that usually walk away from this meeting with the Christmas loot.
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