Japan Cup preview: Guide to the key players and selection for Tokyo

Recent renewals of the Japan Cup have been light on overseas participation, but with three contenders from Europe, all of them Group 1 winners, this year’s race has a more international line-up in keeping with the original intention of the race when it was created forty years ago. But you have to go right back to 2005, when Frankie Dettori rode Alkaased to victory for Luca Cumani, for the last time the Japan Cup went abroad. What makes even grimmer reading for the foreign challengers is that more than fifty overseas runners have contested the Japan Cup since then but, of those, only Ouija Board, who was third under Dettori a year later, has managed to finish in the first three.

Aidan O’Brien has had four previous attempts at the Japan Cup, with Idaho, fifth in 2017 after winning the Hardwicke and finishing third in the King George earlier that year, faring the best of them. O’Brien is doubly represented this time by Japan and Broome, both of whom carry the colours of Japanese businessman Masaaki Matsushima. Japan was perhaps always destined for this race but, in addition to his name, the fact that he’s the mount of Yutaka Take, the Japan Cup’s most successful jockey with four wins (this will be his 27th participation) is sure to earn him support with local fans.

But it’s now more than two years since Japan’s last Group 1 win in the Juddmonte International and while he has been successful in Group 3 company at Chester and Leopardstown this year, he has now been beaten in his last ten attempts at Group/Grade 1 level. That looks enough evidence to oppose him here and, in addition, he’s been dealt the very worst of the draw in stall 18.

Stablemate Broome, by contrast, starts under Ryan Moore from a much more favourable inside berth in stall 3 – among the welter of statistics helpfully provided by the Japan Racing Association, they show that a low draw has tended to be advantageous in past Japan Cups. Broome didn’t give his running in the Arc when Take rode him (maybe the reason he’s chosen Japan instead this time) but overall he’s held his form remarkably well in a tough campaign having been on the go since March.

Broome bounced back on his latest start in the Breeders’ Cup Turf when going clear briefly in the straight before being run down late by Yibir’s strong finish. Beaten half a length at the line, Broome had Japan three lengths behind him in fourth. Broome came from well back at Del Mar but he normally races more prominently and made all for his latest success in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in July, his victory in France entitling him to a $3m bonus if successful here. If breaking on terms to take advantage of his good draw, he has the form to go close.

Europe’s third contender is the French mare Grand Glory. She has raced mainly against her own sex and almost exclusively at a mile and a quarter, though she did finish third in the Group 2 Prix de Pomone at Deauville last year on her only try at around a mile and a half. Grand Glory arrives in top form after being involved in tight finishes in her last two starts, getting the better of the James Fanshawe-trained Audarya in the Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville before failing by just a nose against Rougir in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp after leading entering the final furlong. Those efforts give her a link to some Japanese form as both Audarya and Rougir were among those beaten by Loves Only You in the Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf.

Loves Only You was one of those two historic Breeders’ Cup winners for Japan, both of them trained by ‘the man in the purple hat’ Yoshito Yahagi. The same trainer has good prospects of completing a month to remember with CONTRAIL who looks the one they all have to beat. As a three-year-old last season, Contrail became the first unbeaten Japanese triple crown winner since his own sire Deep Impact. Contrail’s first defeat came in a stellar renewal of last year’s Japan Cup in which he was beaten a length and a quarter by the high-class mare Almond Eye who was winning the race for a second time. While the overseas challenge may be stronger this year, there’s nothing of Almond Eye’s caliber in this line-up and a repeat of that effort should be good enough to see Contrail go one better.

He comes into this year’s race a fresh horse after just two starts this year. Soft ground was probably a valid excuse for his defeat in the spring, but he was much closer to his best when splitting two other high-class performers in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) over a mile and a quarter at Tokyo late last month. The winner of that contest, three-year-old Efforia, looks like proving Japan’s next star middle-distance performer, while back in third was Japan’s top miler Gran Alegria who won her sixth Group 1 and second Mile Championship just last week. That looks the strongest form in Japan this year and, along with the return to a mile and a half being in his favour, Contrail is another who has been handed an ideal draw, on Broome’s inner.

Win or lose, Contrail’s retirement ceremony takes place after the Japan Cup. Remarkably he’s one of four past winners of the Japanese Derby in the Japan Cup field, all of them by Deep Impact. They include this year’s winner Shahryar who inflicted Efforia’s only defeat to date when beating him a nose. That might not be form to take too literally, however, as Efforia has improved since whereas Shahryar was beaten in Group 2 company last time, though he too may have had soft ground as an excuse on that occasion. After just five career starts, if successful Shahryar would be the least experienced horse to win a Japan Cup.

Of the remainder, a couple worth a mention despite both seeking a first top-level success are Aristoteles and Authority. Aristoteles was touched off by just a nose by another of the former Derby winners in the field, Makahiki, in a Group 2 at Hanshin last time but he’s also closely matched with Contrail judged on their running in the final leg of the triple crown last year in which he was beaten a neck. Another four-year-old, Authority, will have the assistance of Japan’s champion jockey Christophe Lemaire whose three Japan Cup wins include Almond Eye’s pair of victories. Authority brings an impressive record of five wins from ten starts, including a Group 2 success last time which was his third win from four outings at Tokyo.

We’re overdue another overseas winner of the Japan Cup, and, if Broome’s busy season doesn’t catch up with him and Grand Glory can see out the longer trip, they’re both entitled to be in the shake-up. However, the feeling is that Contrail can emulate his late sire and add a Japan Cup as a four-year-old to his triple crown exploits at three.

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