Japan Cup preview: Guide to the key contenders and best bet for Tokyo

The Japan Cup is a fantastic occasion and I was lucky enough to ride in it on an old favourite of mine in Thundering Blue.

The start is in front of the stands by the furlong pole and it’s an unbelievable sight to look up and see 120,000 people just metres away from you.

It’s actually the 40th running of the race and it used to be a race quite regularly plundered by European champions, back to Stanerra winning for Ireland in 1983 and the likes of Pilsudski and Falbrav winning in the past as well.

However, since the 25-year plan of Japanese racing bringing in the best stock and breeding by the best mares has really come to fruition, their horses have become much stronger and it’s harder for the overseas raiders to make an impression.

This year’s race looks a really strong race as you’d expect but it’s great to see a couple of Ballydoyle runners over in Japan and Broome, who ran a superb race in the Breeders’ Cup Turf from a wide draw when second to Yibir.

Crucially, Broome has a low draw in stall three which is far more favourable to Japan’s stall 18. However, it’s interesting to know that legendary 52-year-old rider Yutaka Take – through the owners – had a choice over which Aidan O’Brien horse to ride and he chose Japan so readers can make of that what they want but on recent runs and overall form Broome would be more suited to this test on quick ground.

The other European challenger is Grand Glory who was second in the Prix de l’Opera having previously beaten Audarya in the Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville. However, a firm ground and the mile and a half are the unknowns for her as she looks particularly effective on soft and heavy ground.

She’s an interesting challenger nevertheless, but the home team is very strong and Contrail is going to be quite a short-priced favourite. He’s by the much-missed Deep Impact and will be having his last race on Sunday before heading off to stud.

Last year he won the Japanese Triple Crown – the Guineas, the Derby and the Leger – and was second in this race behind Almond Eye.

This year he’s only had the two runs and he was well enough held over 10 furlongs here late last month, having also been beaten earlier in the year, though he was reported to be quite heavy prior to his comeback and he goes into this race on Sunday 4kgs lighter than last time out.

I’m still to be convinced that he’s as good as he was last year, but the Japan Cup is the equivalent of the Arc for people here and I’m sure he’ll be ready to peak this weekend.

He does have some really interesting challengers, not least the Japanese Derby winner SHAHRYAR, who battled on strongly to win the Classic over this course and distance in May.

He will also be all the better for his recent comeback run at Chukyo and he’s down 6kgs from that first outing after the mid-summer break. It was also soft ground last time so back on a fast track, getting the weight-for-age allowance, should play to his strengths.

Uberleben is the Japanese Oaks winner and a very likeable filly. She will enjoy a return to a mile and a half on this track but her form looks a little short of the some of the others.

European readers will no doubt be interested in seeing top French rider Christophe Lemaire – now a champion in Japan – on board Authority. He’s won a big, Graded handicap over this course and distance for the past two years, doubling up in the race earlier this month when carrying top weight.

He may not have the class of these rivals and could be better over a little bit further but given he comes into the race in good form, and should get a good pace to chase, he may well be finishing strongly to get into the money.

In summary, Contrail is going to take plenty of beating and Authority may be the each-way play but I do think Shahryar is the horse with the class and further improvement in him. He’s the one I’d most like to be on.

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