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Today's tips: Racing preview and best bets
David Massey provides his thoughts ahead of Monday's action and he's got recommended bets for Leicester and at Southwell.
Racing Betting Tips: Monday November 18
1pt win Dexperado in 12.40 Leicester at 100/30 (Hills) - min 5/2
1pt win One More Wave in 6.45 Southwell at 11/2 (General) - min 5/1
12.40 Leicester
There’s not a lot to get our teeth into on a Monday with few runners at two of the meetings, but Leicester comes to the rescue with a couple of races worth our attention, starting with the opening race.
Nick Kent has his string in good order, with four of his last five finishing placed, and his DEXPERADO is probably the one to beat here.
In retrospect, he now looks unlucky to have bumped into the weekend’s Cheltenham winner Double Powerful on his handicap debut at Market Rasen, beaten half a length with the pair a potato field in front of anything else, and he lost nothing in defeat to another unexposed one of Dan Skelton’s a month later.
On balance, a mark of 92 looks very low to be kicking this season off with, and the only question is whether Dexperado is going to be fit on his first start since April.
It was therefore pleasing to see both the yard’s Gilbertina and Geordie Night run well at Rasen last week after similar absences, and as long as he’s straight enough here, he should take the beating, with any further rain a plus.
3.40 Leicester
Nicky Henderson’s King Ottakar is the one with the potential to blow this wide apart.
Rated in the 90s on the Flat way back in 2021, we’ve seen very little of him in recent times but he starts out life in handicap hurdles off a mark of just 100 and after wind surgery. The problem is he has another very long absence to overcome, and there has to be a question over what ability now remains.
Far more solid is Dominic’s Fault, who really ought to have won on his handicap debut at Carlisle last month, and probably would have done but for bungling the last.
That was over 2½m, but I don’t see this drop back in trip to be an issue - indeed, he was a C&D winner here in January - and a drop more rain would probably help his cause. He remains open to more improvement and can make amends.
6.45 Southwell
ONE MORE WAVE reportedly bled on his latest start at Bath but had been a huge eyecatcher over 6f at this track on his previous start, setting a blazing pace which saw him eight lengths clear at halfway before he tired in the straight to finish third.
He looked very much like a drop to 5f would benefit him there and now gets that drop, for all the blinkers he did too much in have been removed.
One More Wave has not managed to make the frame in five turf runs but has a consistent record on the all-weather with form figures of 2262142633.
He’s never been lower in the weights than he is now, and the drop to the minimum trip looks an obvious one given how he shaped here on his penultimate start.
Trainer Jonathan Portman is in good form, and it’s encouraging that he has this gelding entered up twice more in the coming week, a strong sign of intent.
Published at 0910 GMT 18/11/24
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