Ben Linfoot has best bets for all five ITV races live from Epsom on Cazoo Derby day.
The three-year-old only handicap that kicks off Derby day is always a terrific puzzle and it has often been the launchpad for horses going onto better things. This year’s renewal looks typically competitive with in-form horses like King Frankel and Patient Dream heading the betting.
Neither of those two can be passed over lightly and cases can be made for plenty, but the one that stands out is George Boughey’s FREAK OUT who is dead interesting moving up in trip with the cheekpieces on.
Firstly, the form of his close-up Newmarket second is working out very well with beaten horses Arqoob and Shuv H’Penny King coming out and winning subsequently, while the way Freak Out kept on to challenge Alabama Boy was encouraging with the step up in trip in mind.
Secondly, his dam’s sister, Hairspray, was an Epsom winner and is the dam of dual track winner Epsom Icon, so form on the Downs is running through his veins.
With Tom Marquand booked he looks well set to gain his first victory of the campaign.
Neither Maamora or Posted have run up to their ratings on their latest starts and could be worth taking on in this Group 3 over the extended mile.
Statement has a bit to prove on that score, as well, after weakening in the closing stages of the 1000 Guineas while Nazuna has plenty on her plate first time up.
It looks trappy and a chance is taken on William Haggas’ TOMORROW’S DREAM with Marquand again doing the steering.
She hasn’t got much to find by any means and is forgiven her last two below-par efforts on heavy ground at Goodwood and on her seasonal return at Kempton.
Last September she looked an improving filly when third in Listed company at Newmarket and the last time Haggas replaced a tongue-tie with first-time cheekpieces he won with Queensberry Rules at York.
This looks a good opportunity for Century Dream to retain his Diomed title at Epsom having won it at Newmarket last year and on his best form he’s the most likely winner.
The problem is he was below-par in the Lockinge and while that run might’ve brought him on he looks short enough in the betting considering he’s on a retrieval mission.
If he’s not quite at it again the one who can take advantage is Andrew Balding’s BELL ROCK who looks in the form of his life judging by his decisive handicap victory off a mark of 103 at Newmarket.
He has Goodwood form on his CV which bodes well when it comes to predicting how he’ll handle the cambers and Balding has a good record in this race, having won it with similar ‘handicappers turned group horses’ Side Glance and Tullius in the last decade.
The Dash is back, the fastest five furlongs in British racing, and that means Caspian Prince will try and win the race once again, with the highly-likeable 12-year-old going for his fourth win in the contest this year.
He last won it four years ago when winning off an 11lb higher mark, so he simply has to come into calculations although stall four won’t make things easy for him.
Stone Of Destiny is in rude health and is a huge player if he gets the breaks from his draw towards the stands’ rail, but he’s relatively short in the market considering he is such a hostage to fortune.
You can use that phrase to describe plenty in here but we’ll take a chance on Tony Carroll’s ROSE HIP who is thriving at present.
She travelled nicely when winning at Windsor last time where she pounced off a strong gallop – a clear career best – and she has winning form at Goodwood and Bath which I like coming into her Epsom debut.
Carroll has won this race before with the aforementioned Caspian Prince and from her stall in 10 Edward Greatrex should get a clear view of where he wants to go as he tries to navigate this filly through the field at a likely big price (25/1 at the time of writing).
Bolshoi Ballet has strong credentials in the Cazoo Derby has he bids to follow in his sire’s footsteps from 20 years ago.
It could be a ninth Derby for Aidan O’Brien and a sixth for super stallion Galileo, but he has somewhat shown his hand which means if you’re not on now you have to take a very short price of around 5/4.
He is the most likely winner, of course, but it looks a strong Derby with trial winners Hurricane Lane, Third Realm and Youth Spirit among the opposition, while John Leeper and Mohaafeth bring seductive untapped potential to the table.
The latter duo are sons of Frankel with the promise of more to come; John Leeper should improve at this trip, while Mohaafeth looks to have tactical speed which can be a potent weapon in this race.
Thursday’s draw and Friday’s rain have worked in the favour of Jim Bolger’s MAC SWINEY, however, and his Irish 2,000 Guineas and Vertem Futurity victories give him an outstanding form chance.
He is another one that could well improve for the trip and if he does, he could be the one to deny the sole Ballydoyle dart.