Is Turners form a Grey area for Betfair Chase favourite at Haydock?

By Ben Linfoot

Horse Racing

Tue November 19, 2024 · 2h ago

Factoring form against potential is one of the most important aspects of analysing any horse race and we have a prime example in Saturday’s Grade One Betfair Chase at Haydock.

For all the sophisticated ways of assessing horse racing form these days the one thing that remains most difficult to measure is the impact of potential and this part of the puzzle largely comes down to a punter’s instinct when it comes to the market presented in front of them.

And so we have the Grey Dawning dilemma this weekend. A horse who is rated the seventh best in the race on official BHA figures, a horse who is considered the fourth best in the race with Timeform – and one who has 9lb to find with the top-rated Ahoy Senor on their ratings.

Yet Grey Dawning is the clear 15/8 favourite.

Timeform attach the all-important ‘p’ to his rating, a symbol that simply asserts that this horse is likely to improve, while the closing line of his comment reads: “… a most likeable sort who hasn’t reached his ceiling.”

Clearly Grey Dawning starts his first season outside of novice company surrounded by an air of expectation. One of the best novice chasers in the last campaign, including those trained in Ireland, he’s unexposed at three miles and tackling that staying trip regularly is one of the reasons why he could improve further.

He’s bred for it, being related to three-mile chase winners, and more importantly he’s already proven over it.

Indeed, Timeform rate his win at Warwick over three miles in soft ground in the Hampton Novices’ Chase last season as the best performance of his life, his third and latest go at such a distance and his first victory over the trip after falling in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle and finishing third to Stay Away Fay at Exeter on his chasing debut.

The son of Flemensfirth demolished them at Warwick, beating Apple Away by 14 lengths and Broadway Boy by a further 18, the manner of his performance suggesting he will be the toughest of stayers at around three miles considering he was strong at the finish of such a well-run race.

That Warwick run is looking more and more crucial, as he ended his novice campaign with a nine-and-a-quarter length defeat behind Il Etait Temps in the Manifesto at Aintree, a 2m4f race that turned into a test of speed, while the form of his Turners Novices’ Chase success at Cheltenham continues to take knocks.

Now, it’s very difficult to gain an edge over the bookies simply by reading the form book. It’s there for everyone to see and I’m sure it hasn’t gone unnoticed that the Turners form has not worked out well.

Horses from the Turners field have run 14 times collectively since Cheltenham and only one of those performances resulted in a win – the ninth home, Sharjah, landed a novice handicap chase at Ayr’s Scottish National meeting in April.

Runner-up Ginny’s Destiny was the latest to let the form down when he pulled up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday, and while it was much lauded as a highlight of the week at the time, the now defunct Turners has worked out pretty miserably.

Grey Dawning - will he return in triumph again?

How much does this matter when assessing Grey Dawning’s chances in the Betfair Chase on Saturday?

After all, he won the Turners with authority, over a trip that looked on the minimum side of things for him, and the race did not look a deep one at the time beyond the front two who were eight lengths clear of the rest.

Ginny’s Destiny’s run at Cheltenham last weekend is hardly a piece of evidence to rest a case on, as the ground was probably on the quick side for him in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and it could well be that he’s a horse who takes a run or two to reach peak fitness.

If anything the form of the Turners serves as a reminder that Grey Dawning needs to improve to win a race like the Betfair Chase and the gap he needs to bridge remains a fairly sizeable one.

The opposition; Ahoy Senor, Royal Pagaille, Capodanno, perhaps Bravemansgame, looks good but not scary. The ground, with melting snow, cold temperatures and rain forecast, looks likely to ease quite significantly now, which is another positive for Grey Dawning.

Dan Skelton’s faith in the horse is unwavering, but even he doesn’t know. In a piece by Dave Ord on these pages on Monday he said: “The truth is we’ll find out the answer on Saturday… the racecourse tells us and that’s the fun of this job and this sport.”

So does Grey Dawning’s known form and unknown potential make him a bet at 15/8 for the Betfair Chase at Haydock on Saturday? That, dear readers, is up to you.

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