Is Sporting John a staying hurdler? Ben Linfoot wonders if Philip Hobbs' horse is a bet at 25/1

Context

The Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle picture is as befuddling as it ever was in the middle of November. Bar those days when Big Buck’s reigned supreme it’s a division that invites even more uncertainty in a sport that thrives on such wonder.

You have several staying novice hurdlers from last season going chasing. You have failed two-milers that could burst onto the scene stepping up in trip. You have chasers that can’t jump fences coming back over hurdles. And with the season only just cranking into gear it’ll be a good while yet before the mist clears.

Last season’s Stayers’ Hurdle winner is always a good place to start. Flooring Porter won last March’s renewal at 12/1 after making all in decisive fashion, but he was pulled up behind Klassical Dream at Punchestown after that and fell on his seasonal reappearance. He’s a best of 11/1 to go back-to-back now.

While last season’s winner isn’t dominating the antepost market his Punchestown conqueror, Klassical Dream, is. Trained by Willie Mullins, he’d seemingly lost the plot over two miles, but then absolutely bolted up in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle on his first go at three – on the back of 487 days off.

Mullins admitted in his stable tour that keeping him sound has been difficult in the past, as you would guess from that lengthy absence, and that has to be factored in when you weigh up his chances at 4/1.

Wedged in between Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter in the Stayers’ Hurdle betting is Thyme Hill, trained by Philip Hobbs. He missed last season’s renewal after pulling a muscle the week before the Festival, but returned with victory in the Grade 1 Ryanair Stayers’ Hurdle at Aintree.

Keen when a 41-length fifth on his return in the Grand Prix d’Automne at Auteuil on November 6, he’s being targeted at the Porsche Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on December 18 for his next start – a race he was second in behind Paisley Park last year.

It’s 14/1 bar Klassical Dream, Thyme Hill and Flooring Porter in the Stayers’ Hurdle betting. Former champion Paisley Park, third in last season’s renewal, is 25s. Like I say, befuddling, and there’s plenty of room in the ring for hats from any direction.

Sporting chance

Which brings us to the headline question – is Sporting John a Staying Hurdler? And what I really mean is - could he win the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival this season?

The first thing to note is that he’s a best price of 25/1 for the championship race in March following Saturday’s Cheltenham victory in the Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle. Sky Bet are one of the bookies offering 25s and they were 33s before he won at the weekend. A nibble, but hardly a significant price cut.

On the one hand you can understand the insignificant price change. Here is a horse that has a Cheltenham Festival record of 7-F – the seventh coming in the 2020 Ballymore when he was sent off 5/1 and beaten 30 lengths by Envoi Allen, while he fell in last season’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, won by Monkfish.

Add to that the merit of Saturday’s performance. He beat the third home, a 12-year-old 125-rated rival, Kansas City Chief, by two-and-three-quarter lengths, which at least provides a question mark over the worthiness of the form, even if he was giving him two stone.

But I’d be inclined to take the opposite view. He also gave the second, the in-form and progressive Onagatheringtorm, 16lb and ran away from him up the hill, with jockey Tom O’Brien hardly having to get serious. Indeed, it was all hands and heels until one crack with the whip to make sure – and that was all that was required to ensure a comfortable two-and-a-half length victory.

He also hurdled beautifully, quickly and slickly, like a hurdler, in fact, and not like a horse that had spent the previous season negotiating fences.

A lovely-looking sturdy type who stood out in the paddock beforehand, there was lots to like about Saturday’s effort - which was not only his first completed start over three miles under Rules, but it also came on the best ground he had ever encountered.

Of course, he will have to improve on this form to develop into a Stayers’ Hurdle contender, but the signs are that he can do. This was a relatively easy win, his first since wind surgery, he’s only six and everything about the performance screamed ‘more to come’.

Hobbs’ choice

The thing is, Saturday’s race was designed to be a confidence booster after his novice chasing season unravelled in the spring.

He fell two out at Cheltenham, but the damage started with a bad mistake at the 11th, while he was pulled up at Aintree after jumping poorly with a mistake coming as early as the second fence.

Before that, though, his career-best performance came when he won the Grade One Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown, the only time he put it all together over fences and the form – Shan Blue was second with Paint The Dream third – looks very good indeed.

That win obviously obliterated his novice status, so if he was to go back over fences this season it would be in graduation chases and open company. Considering he was always thought of as a chaser, the temptation will be there.

But then the handicapper only put him up 5lb to 151 on Tuesday following Saturday’s victory. Big Buck’s – of course he gets a mention when we’re talking about a chaser-turned-staying hurdler – won a handicap hurdle off that very mark the day he began a run of 18 successive hurdles victories.

So what does the rest of Sporting John’s campaign look like?

I spoke to Hobbs on Tuesday and opened with the headline question.

He said: “Of course he’s a staying hurdler, he just won a staying hurdle race on Saturday didn’t he? He’ll probably run over hurdles again now and then after that we’ll decide what we’ll do.

“It was very pleasing to see him win like that and he’s come out of it well.

“I don’t know what route we’ll be taking yet. With his new rating he’s probably more likely to run in a handicap and we will run over hurdles next time, but where he goes I don’t know.”

Hurdles next time is the key information there. He’s clearly got his trainer thinking. Perhaps the Class 2 handicap hurdle over three miles at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day – the same one that Big Buck’s won when kicking off his sequence – could even be his next port of call?

That would give him 49 days between his races, a nice enough break for a horse that seems to need time between assignments. But that’s just speculation. His entries are awaited with interest.

Verdict

The murky Stayers’ Hurdle division will be set for a good few twists and turns yet.

A few are coming up fast, too, with the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle – the artist formerly known as the Fixed Brush – at Haydock this Saturday having become a good platform for staying hurdlers in recent years.

Both Sam Spinner and Paisley Park graduated from that race before winning Grade Ones.

Then there’s the Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury on Friday November 26. Big Buck’s won that race four times and Paisley Park goes for his second win in the contest this year, so perhaps the former champion or something else will come out of that, credentials polished.

Of course, there is the Irish challenge to consider, as well.

Four of the nine Stayers’ Hurdles have gone to Ireland post-Big Buck’s, but with Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter’s weaknesses discussed at the top of this piece, maybe their strength in depth in this championship division is less obvious than in the others.

So is Sporting John a staying hurdler? I think for this season, certainly, the answer is yes. What’s the point in graduation chases and risking his confidence in open company over fences? He’s still only six and he’s got time on his side. There’s plenty of time to go back chasing later on.

And is he a bet for the Stayers’ Hurdle at 25/1? Well, that’s a different question and punters will have their own view on that. As for this one, I think I might’ve just talked myself into it.

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