Is Nicky Henderson stable form a concern heading into Cheltenham Festival?

The news that Constitution Hill has been found to be showing some signs of a respiratory infection, following investigations into his poor piece of work at Kempton on Tuesday, is of course potentially a major blow to the chances of the brilliant 2023 winner retaining his Champion Hurdle crown.

But as his trainer Nicky Henderson himself pointed out after this week’s disappointing gallop, this setback hasn't come entirely out of the blue. It was, after all, an unsatisfactory scope which had ruled Constitution Hill out of the International Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day only a month or so ago. Henderson reported Constitution Hill was fine when scoped last week but ‘it seems as though it might have come back to haunt us.’

It was reassuring, however, that, according to the trainer, other members of his string that were scoped earlier this week were all given a clean bill of health. Because recent results from Seven Barrows raise the question of whether Constitution Hill’s infection might be more than just something ailing the stable star but symptomatic of some wider problem affecting the yard’s overall form.

Over the season as a whole, Henderson, who is third in the trainers’ championship behind Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton, is operating at a fine strike rate of 22% which is bettered only by Nicholls. But the yard’s strike rate for February alone dipped to just 13.9% with only 5 winners from 36 runners.

Without a big race double at Newbury from Iberico Lord in the Betfair Hurdle and Shishkin in the Denman Chase, there wouldn’t have been much to write home about at all this month. Henderson’s only winner since that pair at Newbury came ten days later in a juvenile maiden hurdle at Market Rasen from Kado de Joie.

But the very next day, all three of the stable’s runners at Doncaster were pulled-up and, more worryingly, three days later the same fate befell three of the stable’s four runners last Saturday.

It was all very different when Constitution Hill made his only appearance so far this season in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton just over two months ago. In contrast, December was an excellent month for Henderson’s stable, with 21 winners from 80 runners resulting in a strike rate of 26.3% for the month. There were also Grade 1 wins in December for Jonbon and Jango Baie, and while the King George was the one that got away thanks to Shishkin’s stumble, the likes of Sir Gino and Jeriko du Reponet began to stake their Festival claims too.

That hot form didn’t last into January, however, and while Sir Gino, Jeriko du Reponet and Marie’s Rock were all Grade 2 winners late in the month, Jonbon met with a shock defeat at odds of 1/4 in the rearranged Clarence House Chase at Cheltenham the same weekend and the stable’s strike rate for the month slipped to 16.7% (12 winners from 72 runners) before falling further still in February.

But a comparison with previous seasons shows that February is often a quieter month for Seven Barrows in any case and their strike rate for the current month is, in fact, very similar to February in both 2021 and 2022. It was, however, markedly better in February last year (19.3%) and positively outstanding in 2020 when the stable had 20 winners from 56 runners at a strike rate of 35.7%.

What is striking about this February’s statistics, however, is that Henderson has had only 36 runners, compared with 56, 72, 53 and 57 in the same month from 2020 to 2023. That high number in 2021, incidentally, was an anomaly because there were two ‘jumpers bumpers’ fixtures at Kempton that month at which the stable had lots of runners.

There’s not necessarily anything sinister about a much lower number of runners from Seven Barrows than usual at this time of year because the weather has almost certainly been a factor in Henderson being reluctant to run too many of his horses. Few will need reminding how wet this February has been, in complete contrast, by the way, to the same month last year which was exceptionally dry.

But looking at stable strike rates since the turn of the year, there are certainly yards which are heading towards Cheltenham more obviously in form than Seven Barrows at present which has a strike rate for January/February combined of 15.7%. Leading the way by that measure among trainers with more than 50 runners this year is Henderson’s former assistant Ben Pauling (25.3%), ahead of Paul Nicholls (23.9%) and Olly Murphy (21.4%).

Constitution Hill is due to be scoped again on Friday but a better general picture of his stable’s form will come at the weekend when their higher-profile runners could include Jango Baie (beaten at 5/4 at Huntingdon earlier in the month) in the Premier Novices’ Hurdle at Kelso and Under Control in the same track’s Morebattle Hurdle.

We’ll be into a new month by then, but that signals Cheltenham is less than two weeks away, so some encouraging runs at the very least would certainly be timely.

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