Irish racing tips: Tony Keenan preview and best bets for the Punchestown Festival

Irish racing tips: Tuesday April 30

0.5pt e.w Morricone in 3.05 Punchestown at 11/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

In the years since Ruby Walsh retired, Punchestown has become perhaps the most predictable of the spring festivals, at least in terms of the Grade 1s. Since Walsh walked off into the TV studios after Kemboy won the Punchestown Gold Cup in 2019, Willie Mullins has trained 30 Grade 1 winners at the meeting.

With riding arrangements and what not, Paul Townend had access to 24 of those top-level winners and managed to pick the right one 21 times, a staggering strikerate, with all 21 sent off favourite. Trying to get creative with the form book has not been at all profitable in that time.

That theme is likely to continue later this week, but perhaps not on Tuesday where Townend’s three Grade 1 mounts are outsiders by his standards, Mark Walsh the rider with the best hand by far across today’s feature contests.

Dinoblue looks quite a solid favourite in the William Hill Champion Chase at 5:25, her 10 chase runs having yielded five wins and five runner-up finishes, and she is more consistent than many in the field.

A strong pace looks likely in the race given the presence of Saint Sam amongst other front-runners which should suit her, and it might also play into the hands of outsiders and hold-up horses Maskada and Fil Dor. Both of those are cliff horses that I need to step away from, however.

The first four from the Supreme meet again in the KPMG Champion Novice Hurdle at 3:40 and Slade Steel could be worth opposing over a speedier track than he faced last time. Furthermore, his trainer’s Cheltenham winners often disappoint when running back in the spring of their victory before rebounding the following seasons.

Mystical Power holds obvious claims of reversing the form having won at Aintree while both Asian Master and Fun Fun Fun look a bit overpriced too.

The Dooley Insurance Group Champion Novice Chase at 6:00 lacks the true stars of the division, Fact To File and Corbetts Cross both done for the season, though their owner has a solid substitute in Spillane’s Tower who might prove better over this trip.

That is a might though and this there are a few at bigger prices that have claims too. Sharjah is one, for all his price has shortened up markedly since declarations, the usual rules about stamina and age seeming not to apply to him, nor is it the first time his trainer has pulled something like this off.

Three Card Brag is also of interest given his excellent record fresh, his initial chase run coming in a race that was Graded in all but name where he had Monty’s Star and Nick Rockett in behind. He never got into a jumping rhythm on his next start here but the cheekpieces could help here with the recent rain in his favour.

The intention had been to put up Paddy’s Milestone in the Blood-Stock.com Full Circle Series Final Handicap Hurdle at 3:05, that series a commendable new set of races that has produced not only a deep final but competitive qualifiers along the way while giving smaller trainers a chance of a winner on the big stage.

There are eye-catchers and there is what happened to Paddy’s Milestone at Down Royal last time, Stuart Crawford’s runner performing wonders to finish fourth despite being effectively taken out of the race three out, but the most everyone else saw it too.

A possible alternative might be MORRICONE. He has thrived since joining this yard in October, putting up four gradually better efforts at this track, ridden to arrive late beat a next-time-out winner last time.

He has gone up eight pounds for that win but might have had more in hand than the bare margin and is one of the most progressive in the field with the return of the cheekpieces her wore earlier in the season an interesting addition.

His trainer, Ray Hackett, also has some history with this type of series, having come out on top in a similar group of races on the flat a couple of years back.

Published at 0845 BST on 30/04/24

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