Our Irish expert Tony Keenan gives his expert view for day two of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown.
Irish racing tips: Sunday February 4
0.5pts e.w Adamantly Chosen in the Leopardstown 3.20 (Sunday) at 14/1 (bet365, Hills, 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Looking ahead to tomorrow, I am interested in the form of the Paddy Power Chase from Christmas in the O’Driscoll’s Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase at 3:20.
That looked a strong race of its type, the winner and third from the 2022 race again involved in the finish, with a number of less-exposed sorts mixing in around them, and there is a good chance the winner of this race comes from that one.
James De Berlais has obvious claims having gone around the disadvantaged inner last time though may want slower ground while Watch House Cross is another with a chance, the drop in trip sure to suit.
Most appealing at the prices is ADAMANTLY CHOSEN, however. He took an outside route then but there were other reasons to think him much better than his tenth place finish, not least the heavy rain that fell the morning of the race being against him more than most.
He looked a suspect stayer at the trip and that rain emphasised stamina more than he wanted while it also looked as if his rider made his move too soon, pressing up to the lead after two out (usual three out as the second last was bypassed) and travelling strongly into the straight before he failed to get home.
Paul Townend did at least accept defeat quickly and spared the selection a hard time in the finish and this drop in trip looks more suitable, especially with the best effort of his career coming over this track and trip at the meeting last year.
On that occasion he had finished second to Mighty Potter, with subsequent big race winners Gaillard Du Mesnil, I Am Maximus and Kilcruit behind him, and with little rain and a strong wind forecast between now and race time, he should again have conditions to suit.
Irish racing tips: Saturday February 3
1pt Il Etait Temps to place in the Leopardstown 2.25 (5/2 William Hill, 2 places)
0.5pts e.w Adamantly Chosen in the Leopardstown 3.20 (Sunday) at 14/1 (bet365, Hills, 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
The make-up of the Dublin Racing Festival day one will not please everyone and critics have valid points from the ‘Mullinsisation’ of top-level Irish national hunt racing to a bumper where the front two in the betting probably shouldn’t be running.
This is not to say the races aren’t interesting – they are, though perhaps not for betting on – rather that it could be a better meeting with some tweaks but that discussion is for another day as punters can only play the races they are dealt.
The featured Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at 3:35 is one of races and I have no strong view beyond asking the question what will Christmas have taken out of Galopin Des Champs? His win in the Savills was as good as his Cheltenham win in March and it took a while for him to get back to this best after that.
Jetara has been a long-term fancy for the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (1:20) but the market has moved in her favour since declarations and it is hard to suggest her at current odds. Both the Mullins outsiders, I Will Be Baie and Dancing City, look a little overpriced in that.
The McCann Fitzgerald Spring Juvenile Hurdle at 1:50 is tough to unravel. Storm Heart was the most impressive of these visually at Punchestown, posting fast late splits off a slow pace, but that is reflected in the market and perhaps the most solid of all is Kala Conti.
Kargese should in theory reverse Christmas form with her at the weights and with a run but Kala Conti may not have been suited by the steady pace last time despite winning and is interesting in the place markets.
Perhaps the Goffs Irish Arkle Novice Chase at 2:25 is most appealing, albeit not in the outright market as Marine Nationale should be very hard to beat. The ones behind him in the betting may be more vulnerable, however.
Facile Vega’s ceiling is high but we have seen his floor on his last two runs at this track on decent ground while his jumping of fences has been only satisfactory so far.
Found A Fifty took advantage of his disappointing run at Christmas to win a Grade 1 but the form of that looks weak and the time was poor while he also did plenty wrong in the race.
Both are likely to be ridden forward if past tactics are anything to go by and likely mix it with Marine Nationale while IL ETAIT TEMPS could be there to pick up the pieces.
Much was made of the post-race drama of his Limerick second last time but he deserves credit for a good effort under unsuitable conditions while meeting trouble, two-and-a-half miles on testing ground not really his thing, likely much more effective at the minimum trip on a sound surface.
The best runs of both his last two season came under those conditions at this meeting and he might be able to produce a peak efforts here and thus makes plenty of appeal in the sub-markets, with there being little between the without the favourite and place markets.
Published at 0925 GMT on 03/02/24
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