Irish racing tips: Tony Keenan preview and best bets for Naas

By Tony Keenan

Horse Racing

Sun January 05, 2025 · 2d ago

Tony Keenan returns with a look ahead to today's quality card at Naas - he has one recommended bet.

Irish racing tips: Sunday January 5

0.5pts e.w. Krabat in 3.05 Naas at 15/2 (bet365, 13/2 general)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

It was a pleasant surprise that Naas got the go ahead this morning and one thing to watch through the card will be the form of the Willie Mullins yard. The Champion Trainer seemed to allay any concerns about stable form with eight winners across New Year’s Eve and New Year's Day, but it is interesting to consider the profile of his recent winners.

Since the start of December, Mullins has 36 winners, 29 of which had been with the yard prior to this season. Of those 29 winners, 20 came off a break of 100 days or more and had healthy win and place strike-rates of 28.2% and 48.8%.

Those returning from a shorter break, i.e. the winter horses that had run this season, were only nine from 72 with win and place strike-rates of 12.5% and 27.85% respectively, the improvement that is typically a given with the yard for their first run back not as clear.

Perhaps it is just noise and the statistical by-product of the individual horses and races they were running in, but there are a few important runners with that profile today like Ile Atlantique and Jasmin De Vaux.

The Racing Post Novice Chase at 1.25 contains three young chasers that won well on debut over fences though the form of each of those wins looks iffy, and nor is their Grade 1 novice hurdle form working out well either.

Ile Atlantique has to prove he is something other than a first time out wonder, yet to win after his seasonal return for Mullins in both previous seasons, and might be the weakest link, while the ground (likely be testing with more precipitation forecast) has come right for Inthepocket.

Firefox might offer the most value as while his Supreme form fails to work out, he may also have run in two races over fences that were unsuitable, whereas this two miles on slow ground might be ideal for him.

The step up to two and a half miles should suit Jasmin De Vaux in the Lawlor's Of Naas Novice Hurdle at 1.55 but his jumping is a worry and while the form of his maiden hurdle win has worked out well since, the horses behind him had other reasons to improve subsequently, The Enabler needing further and both Workahead and Come Walk With Me needing the run.

Really slow ground is a concern for The Yellow Clay, his trainer commenting early in his career that he didn’t enjoy it and his recent win on soft run at such a slow pace that it didn’t prove much, and my two against the field are Butch Cassidy and Supersundae.

Butch Cassidy showed an excellent attitude to win at Punchestown in November, and while the second disappointed next time he had excuses, the next three all boosted the form on their next starts. Henry De Bromhead said he had not been able to get a run him in a schooling hurdle beforehand so his jumping should be sharper here and it is notable the way some of his novice hurdlers are improving for a run of late.

Supersundae has form as good as any of these by dint of his Supreme seventh place finish when he looked like further would suit and with many of the recent Mullins winners coming off a break, may well be able to produce his best here.

The Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle at 3.05 has a good each-way shape with a short-priced favourite and KRABAT makes some each-way appeal.

He has dropped eight pounds since last season despite shaping like he is as good as ever while running on unsuitable ground in races that are a higher grade than this.

He ran well on return at Galway in October, before travelling well for a long way at Navan next time on ground too fast then ran his best race of the season last time when fifth in a strong race at Fairyhouse, the ground again quicker than he wants, that form working out since.

Those three runs came in races graded as 0-135, 0-116 and 0-135 whereas he now drops into a 0-112 where there is little good recent form on offer on ground he enjoys and the slower it gets, the better it will suit him.

He does find it hard to win, hence the each-way play, but it is a plus that he retains his regular rider in this opportunity race.

Published at 1008 GMT on 05/01/25

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