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Irish racing tips: Tony Keenan preview and best bets for Curragh
In-form Irish racing expert Tony Keenan looks ahead to today's quality racing from the Curragh.
Irish racing tips: Sunday September 29
1pt win Big Gossey in 3.15 the Curragh at 10/1 (Betfair, BetVictor)
0.5pts e.w. Derida in 4.25 the Curragh at 100/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Another day, another ultra-valuable race at the Curragh, this time the Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch at 4.25, worth €600,000 in all, €324,000 of that to the winner.
Joseph O’Brien has had a fine second half to the season, not least when winning the Goffs Million yesterday with Apples And Bananas, and looks to have a strong panel of seven here, including the current favourite Nurburgring.
He deserves his place at the top of the market after an eye-catching run when fourth in the 'Petingo' last time, the only runner that was held up to get involved in a finish dominated by horses that raced on the pace, and he has done very little racing on the flat since being gelded, something that often brings about improvement in the O’Brien runners.
That said, it is hard to face into him at his current price, and the trainer has some other interesting runners, with outsider DERIDA perhaps worth a small play with the extended places.
She was acquired by the trainer last December and the reason was likely the form of her final run and Listed win for her old yard at Clairefontaine last July where she beat O’Brien inmate Dancing Tango (now rated 102) and Baiykara (narrowly beaten in a Group 2 next time), that effort making her current mark of 99 look workable.
Things have not gone smoothly since as she has only had two runs in Ireland, the first at Cork in April before a 137-day break and running in a Listed race at Galway over a mile-and-a-half earlier this month.
She went with little fluency then before keeping on well late and while it is unclear whether it was the break, the trip or the undulating track that caused her not to travel comfortably, all three of those circumstances are changed today with the blinkers are put on today to help sharpen her up.
In the SBK Renaissance Stakes at 3.15, it may be worth backing Curragh cult hero BIG GOSSEY to put another big effort at the track as he continues in excellent form through the second half of the season.
He won the Scurry off 96 back in July before finishing a close fourth in the Phoenix Sprint Stakes the following month, shaping better than the result as he raced in the wrong part of the track, form that leaves him very closely matched with the favourite My Mate Alfie, albeit that one is an improving three-year-old.
Connections opted to run him off 107 in the Irish Cambridgeshire next time and there was nothing wrong with his fifth place finish over a trip that stretched while he ran as well as could be expected from a bad draw in the Flying Five last time.
Six furlongs up the Curragh have long been his ideal conditions and he went close to winning this race last year, looking in at least as good as form now as then.
Judged on events yesterday, he might ideally be drawn closer to near rail but there is not a huge amount of pace in this, and he may be able to get across while he seems versatile in terms of ground, with rain forecast to hit the track later today, though the forecasts are for different amounts.
The rest of the card looks tricky. The Weld Park Stakes at 2.40 is perhaps a bit more open than the betting suggests but the favourite Heavens Gate is the Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore combo and we know how that typically ends while Dahab has a chance in the closing maiden.
He has improved with each run, chasing home a solid type despite being in the wrong part of the track at Navan last time, and shows enough knee action to suggest slow ground will be no problem. A low draw in a big field like this on the round track is a help too.
Preview posted at 0930 on 29/09/24
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