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Irish racing tips: Tony Keenan preview and best bet for Naas on Sunday
Irish form expert Tony Keenan puts forward a selection at Naas on Sunday.
Irish racing tips: Sunday October 13
0.5 pt win Romzina in 15:25 Naas at 9/1 (Bet365, 17/2 William Hill, 8/1 general)
This afternoon’s Naas card is standard end of flat season stuff, plenty of big fields with horses looking to get another race in before the turf campaign runs out, and the featured Colm White Bookmaker Beggar’s End Handicap (16:00) is just one example.
Despite being similar to the Irish Cesarewitch a fortnight ago, there is relatively little overlap between the two with just three runners coming on from that race, many lower rated horses getting a good opportunity to land a premier handicap on a decent card.
I am inclined to look towards those lower down the weights than the classier types, though settling on just one is difficult. Toll Stone got a hike for winning at Galway but looked up to defying his new mark when shaping better than the result last time at Hamilton, meeting trouble at a key stage, while Nostra Casa continues to show his best form when fresh as he is here, his figures when coming off a break for this yard reading:14119.
The thriving Jabbar has yet to run a bad race since Gerard O’Leary took back over training him outright at the start of the year while even Lord Erskine has a chance for all he would prefer slower ground. He shaped better than the result in his two Galway runs this summer before dipping slightly the next twice but came right back to form last time.
The most valuable race on the card is the Irish EBF Auction Series Final (14:15) which will provide a good payday to an ordinary winner. Nothing stands out at the prices, though it would not be a surprise if the seven maiden winners get beaten by something lower down the weights like Famed Again (has improved since a mid-season break) or Fiona Maccoul (shaped very well debut before being unsuited by the drop to five furlongs last time).
Both Listed races on the card are confined to fillies and mares. Each of the fancied ones in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Garnet Stakes (14:50) – Sakti, Azada, Princess Child and Goldana – have shown the ability to win a race like this while also hinting at temperament on occasion.
At least with Princess Child that attitude was a while back (over Irish Derby weekend) and she has looked straightforward since, running a number of good races in defeat, particularly last time at Listowel when splitting Curvature and Fleur De Chine, either of which I would make favourite here. There is no major juice in her price, however.
Perhaps the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bluebell Stakes (15:25) is the way to go for a selection on a difficult card. Caught U Looking should enjoy finally getting back on slower ground, but she has been busy, and this trip looked to stretch her in the Oaks. Siege Of Troy is interesting after an eye-catching run from off the pace at Kentucky Downs though her Irish form leaves her with a bit to find.
Preference instead is for ROMZINA, though there are concerns. She only started out when winning her maiden on debut in August despite being green, and there is a couple that won soon after in the frame, before taking the step up to Listed class well when third in the Oyster Stakes at Galway.
She was beaten a fair way by the winner, but she did lots wrong in the race, taking a keen hold and pulling herself to the front, jumping a path after halfway, doing well to last as long as she did given how she raced and shaping second best on the day.
The worries are stable form – Dermot Weld is 7/125 since the start of July, albeit Romzina has twice run well in that time – and that she will again over-race as she did at Galway. Weld-trained horses typically settle well so that is probably the bigger concern, but he has put the hood on and his record in that is neutral overall, five winners from 35 runners in the first-time hood since the start of 2015, so the hope is that she will race in a more tractable manner.
Preview posted at 0928 on 13/10/24
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