Tony Keenan looks ahead to today's quality card at Leopardstown and he's got an each-way recommendation in mind.
Irish racing tips: Sunday March 30
0.5pts e.w. Mocking in 4.20 Leopardstown at 10/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
The Guineas meeting is still five weeks away, but Aidan O’Brien seems to have some of his bigger guns out earlier than usual, four three-year-olds rated 110 or higher running for him over the weekend.
It points to the extreme depth he has in that age group, even with him making noises that The Lion In Winter and Lake Victoria could struggle to make Newmarket, and Camille Pissarro (OR 114) made a good start for him when second in the Gladness Stakes yesterday.
Henri Matisse (116), Delacroix (116) and Exactly (112) are due to run at Leopardstown this afternoon though the two colts’ races, the Ballylinch Stud "Red Rocks" Stakes at 2:35 and the P.W. McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes at 3:45, look tough to sort.
The Ballylinch Stud "Priory Belle" Stakes (3:10) is more appealing. Exactly sets a good standard and has run several good races at the track, though Swelter is an interesting rival.
She won her sole start here in good style last July, despite being particularly weak in the betting, and Dermot Weld is the kind of trainer that would intentionally give her a long break afterwards.
Weld has started the season well with his three-year-old fillies and has a particularly strong record in this race; he has had eight runners in it since 2008 with four of them winning and two more making the frame.
Though she won over a mile last July which might suggest she is a stayer, her trainer said afterwards that he would have preferred a seven-furlong race for her, and her only upcoming Group entries are at mile rather further, suggesting he believes this trip will be fine for her. Her price has shortened up quite a bit since declarations, however.
The 1888 Restaurant Handicap at 4:20 is very competitive and Aidan O’Brien runs three with Serious Contender looking the clear pick having shown an excellent attitude last time while 85 does not seem a particularly stiff opening mark.
At the prices, MOCKING makes some each-way appeal, however. Johnny Murtagh has tended to train his horses more patiently as his training career has gone on, and his strikerate in juvenile maidens since the start of 2020 is just 5.6% while his returns in three-year-old handicaps in the same period is 11.9%.
Mocking showed little on his first two starts last season but caught the eye in his qualifying run at Naas in October behind Galveston, going well in rear but caught behind rivals turning in, his jockey unable to get a run until the furlong pole when still travelling fine, again tight for room half a furlong out before running on late, shaping a fair bit better than his fifth.
He was gelded shortly afterwards and presumably put away for races like and Murtagh is nine from 60 with 26 places with three-year-old handicap debutantes starting out over 10 furlongs or further for a level-stakes profit of 35.88 points.
The concern is that the stable have started the year quietly (just 1/28 so far in 2025) but the selection should rate higher this year and is worth a small play.
Published at 0855 BST on 30/03/25
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