Gordon Elliott got the 2017 Cheltenham Festival off to some start on Tuesday. Three winners in the bag, Labaik, Apple’s Jade, Tiger Roll, rat-tat-tat, and the Festival is only getting going.
And there is a chance that Elliott’s run will continue with Shattered Love in the Neptune Hurdle on Wednesday. Third in the Grade 2 mares’ bumper at Aintree last April, the Gigginstown House Stud’s mare was beaten just a half a length by Airlie Beach in a Grade 3 mares’ novices’ hurdle at Down Royal in early November, and she followed that up by running Let’s Dance to two and a half lengths in a listed contest at Punchestown later that month. That is strong novice hurdling form.
The tasks that she faced in her last two runs were rendered less arduous than they might have been as Asthuria fell in both races. Asthuria appeared to be travelling well in front at Fairyhouse last time when she came down at the final flight, but Shattered Love is a mare who finds plenty for pressure, and it is impossible to know how the race would have panned out had Asthuria jumped the final flight well.
Also, Gordon Elliott’s mare beat Forge Meadow by 13 lengths that day, and Forge Meadow came out next time and beat the geldings in a Grade 2 contest at Naas impressively.
There is evidence to suggest that we have a strong bunch of novice hurdling mares in Ireland this season. Airlie Beach won the Grade 1 Royal Bond Hurdle at Fairyhouse in early December against the boys, while Let’s Dance was impressive in beating the geldings in the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown in January. Add that to Forge Meadow’s Grade 2 win at Naas, and it is a compelling case.
And Shattered Love’s form ties in with all three mares.
She has never been beyond two and a quarter miles on the track, but she won her only point-to-point, she is by Yeats, she is a half-sister to Make A Track, who won over two and three-quarter miles, and she races like she will appreciate a test of stamina. It is more than possible that she will improve for stepping up to two miles and five furlongs.
Neon Wolf is obviously a highly promising talent, and Bacardys and Messire Des Obeaux are Grade 1 winners. It is a high-class race, as befits a Neptune Hurdle. However, Shattered Love is a talented performer herself and, the only mare in the race, she receives 7lb from all her rivals. She could out-run her odds by a fair way.
It is easy to understand why Tombstone is favourite for the Coral Cup.
Connections considered supplementing him for the Champion Hurdle after he battled on well to beat Jezki at Gowran Park last time, so his British mark of 149, just 1lb higher than his Irish mark, gives him a real chance.
However, Peregrine Run is also interesting, and he could be over-priced. Peter Fahey’s horse completed a four-timer when he beat Wholestone and West Approach off level weights in a Grade 2 novices’ contest over this course and distance at the November meeting.
Those two horses are very good, they are now rated 145 and 157 respectively, so Peregrine Run’s chance is obvious off a mark of 142. Of course, Wholestone and West Approach have improved since then, but Peregrine Run beat them on merit that day, probably with more in hand than the official margins of a length and three and a half lengths suggest, and that mark gives him some leeway.
You can easily forgive him his only subsequent run at Warwick in January, as the ground was simply softer than ideal for him. He will be much happier back on better ground, and the fact that he is one for one over the course and distance is an obvious positive.
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